451
FXUS61 KOKX 071746
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1246 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure to the south and southwest of the area will
remain in control this afternoon. A fast moving low pressure
passes to the north and east tonight into Sunday. Another
frontal system then impacts the area Monday into Monday night,
followed by yet another complex frontal system impacting the
region through midweek. The associated cold front moves across
Wednesday night. High pressure returns thereafter for the
remainder of the work week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure remains in control while it continues to emanate
off to the S and SW being stretched and elongated into the
forecast area. A good deal of sunshine across the CWA to begin
the afternoon, but clouds increase later this afternoon.
Overall there will be more clouds the further NW one goes later
this afternoon. Not as breezy as it has been for the past
couple of days, but still brisk at times with a few gusts to
around 20 mph or thereabouts. Basically stayed close to
deterministic NBM, looking good for high temperatures. Overall,
temps are expected to be about 5-8 degrees below normal.
Weakening low pressure shifts east from the Great Lakes towards
northern New England tonight. A warm front will likely set up north
of the area this evening. Warm advection/isentropic lift should help
lower and thicken clouds. The lift is weak, but most of the model
guidance signals potential for at least a broken band of light
precip overnight. The best potential for this precip appears to be
from the Lower Hudson Valley east-southeastward towards southern
Connecticut and eastern Long Island. With that said, PoPs remain
below the likely category. Thermal profiles are cold enough
initially with wet bulbing for some light snow. However, models
still show a warm nose around 3-6kft which probably allows for some
sleet as the precip is coming to end late tonight. Warmer surface
temperatures across portions of eastern Long Island bring rain into
the mix. Portions of Southeast CT should stay all light snow with
the colder air taking longer to dislodge across this area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry Sunday as weak surface ridging occurs between the departing low
to the NE and a broad area of low pressure well off to the west.
Breezy, but milder than the past several days with high temperatures
above normal in the upper 40s to low 50s.
A warm front approaches from the SW Sunday night, in association with
a broad area of low pressure stretching from the upper MS Valley to
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. A weak area of low pressure center
develops along this warm front as it passes through the forecast
area Monday night. Moisture out ahead of the warm front heads our
way with rain chances starting late Monday morning, but not becoming
likely until Monday afternoon with rain remaining likely into Monday
evening as the weak low center passing through. The rain should be
primarily on the light to moderate side with a total of quarter of
half inch of accumulation. Temperatures remain above normal on
Monday in spite of the rain and clouds with highs ranging from the
mid 40s inland to the low 50s for coastal areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Amplified pattern shaping up for Tuesday through Wednesday.
Deepening upper level trough with strong SW to NE jet will
strengthen a frontal system approaching the area. The associated
warm front moves across Tuesday with an associated cold front moving
across Wednesday night.
The timeframe of Tuesday through Wednesday expected to have rain
across the region much of the time period. Wednesday night, the
precipitation becomes more intermittent, more in the way of showers.
With a strong cold air advection behind the front, potential for
mixing with snow and for some pure snow showers across the region
before all precipitation comes to a close.
Dynamic forcing appears with enhanced lift Wednesday will have some
potential for heavy rain. With how dynamic the flow is, model trends
will have to be analyzed for any changes in trough positioning and
low pressure. Also, if the low pressure deepens more than forecast,
resulting in further tightening of the pressure gradient, this would
make for higher winds than forecast. Current model consensus shows
the low just starting its deepening process as it traverses over the
local region Wednesday afternoon with more rapid deepening occurring
once the low is north and east of the region Wednesday night into
early Thursday.
Dry conditions expected thereafter through Friday as high pressure
builds in from the west. Temperatures above normal Tuesday through
Wednesday and then below normal Wednesday night through Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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For today, the region remains between high pressure to the south
and west and low pressure to the north and west. The low gets
closer to the area tonight and passes to the north on Sunday.
For the TAF period, mainly VFR conditions are expected. With the
approach of the low tonight, a few snow showers are possible
with some sleet possible as well. CT terminals and KSWF have the
better chance of seeing these snow showers with chances for
MVFR. Low chance of brief IFR. NYC terminals likely to remain
VFR through the TAF period.
Winds expected to remain gusty through much of the TAF period.
W/NW flow near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt expected much of
today. Winds may briefly decrease this evening before picking
back up out of the SW overnight with gusts upwards of 20-25kt.
Winds shift more to the W on Sunday with gusts remaining through
the day upwards of 25-30kt possible. Gusts expected to end by
evening Sunday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday afternoon: VFR. Wind gusts 20-30 kt out of the west,
decreasing late in the afternoon.
Monday: MVFR to IFR at times in rain, particularly in the
afternoon and evening.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower during the day. Increasing chance of
rain late Tue into Tue night. IFR or lower possible at night.
Wednesday: MVFR to IFR. Possible sub-IFR at times. Rain
day into early evening with rain and snow showers for the rest
of the night. SW gusts 15-20 kt during day. W-NW gusts 15-20 kt
at night. Some NW gusts up to 25-30 kt possible at night.
Thursday: Mainly VFR with gusty W to NW winds 20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub small craft criteria through this afternoon, albeit briefly.
Winds do pick up tonight into Sunday as an area of low pressure
passing to the north tightens the pressure gradient. SCAs
therefore go into effect this evening through Sunday afternoon
for all waters, with the nearshore / non-ocean waters having
small craft conditions just before midnight. Gusts may approach
gale force late tonight into Sunday morning on the central and
easter ocean, but not enough coverage or length of time for
gale warning consideration at this time. SCA conds then continue
on the ocean through a portion of Sunday night. Seas subside
below 5 ft by early Monday morning and likely remain below 5 ft
through Monday night. Gusts may however briefly approach 25 kt
as relatively weak area of low pressure passing through attempts
to strengthen.
Aside from some lingering eastern ocean SCA conditions Tuesday into
Tuesday night, below SCA conditions expected. Ocean SCA conditions
become probable for Wednesday with all waters likely having SCA
conditions Wednesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through Tuesday. Heavy rain possible
at times on Wednesday with the potential for minor flooding in low
lying and poor drainage areas. Model potential for PWATs of near
1.3 to 1.4 inches Wednesday, which would be above the 90th
percentile and around the max for OKX sounding climatology for
December 11th.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday
for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM