455
FXUS61 KOKX 072103
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
403 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure passes by quickly to the north tonight, followed by a
series of weak surface troughs Sunday. A warm front and weak low
pressure moves through Monday afternoon and evening. A complex
frontal system impacts the region midweek with the associated cold
front moving across Wednesday night. High pressure returns
thereafter for the remainder of the work week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Low pressure will scoot north of the area fairly quickly tonight.
The main mid and upper level support with the system will be north
of the area bringing some light accumulating snows to the mountains
of New England and Upstate NY tonight and early Sunday morning. For
our area we get mainly clouds with some light precip in the form of
very light snow or flurries across northern most sections towards
this late this evening, mainly towards and after 02z. This activity
is expected to remain light and move essentially from west to east
towards and after midnight. The higher res guidance differs as to
how far south precip or measurable precip can ultimately get. Went
with a consensus with regard to PoPs and sensible wx. Therefore have
chance to slight chance of light snow from north to south, with
essentially nothing across southern most portions of the area. Even
places further north may see nothing, but thought consensus approach
was best. Any precip should be quite light and should not see what
we saw earlier in the week across northern areas. The system will be
a quick mover and will race by as it is rather progressive. Towards
daybreak any light precip should get north and northeast of the
region. Winds out of the SW will keep temperatures up a bit compared
to the last few night along with cloud cover in place. Temperatures
should range from the upper half of the 20s up north to mainly lower
and some middle 30s across the NYC metro and southern most sections.
As the system exits northeast the winds will switch around to the
west ushering in drier air, but not necessarily cooler air. In fact
it will be milder as Pacific air has gotten into the pattern and
there will be a lack of colder Canadian air in the wake of the
system passing by to the north. Temperatures under breezy, but
partly sunny conditions should get to normal, or perhaps even a few
degrees above normal for the afternoon. Although, the breeze may
make it feel a touch cooler. Most locations should get into the
upper 40s, with some lower 50s towards the NYC metro and out on LI
and southern portions of NE NJ.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Partly cloudy skies are expected Sunday night as the winds lighten
out of the west. Some clouds will be around, with more in the way of
higher and mid level clouds arriving towards daybreak in advance of
the next rapidly approaching system. Temperatures will be fairly
close to normal with upper 20s to middle 30s in most locations.
For Monday expect clouds to increase and thicken up quickly for the
mid to late morning. At this point the morning looks to be primarily
dry, with only a chance to slight chance that some precip could
break out across western portions of the area before midday. This
system will move well northwest of the area and bring a warm front
through. It will be another quick mover and there will be a lack of
cold air in front of the system. Therefore this next system should
be all plain rain. Temperatures on a E to SE flow should stay in the
upper 30s to around 40 well inland, to the upper 40s and right
around 50 further south and east at the coast and into the city. The
rainfall deficit will continue to get knocked down some, with
rainfall totals expected to range from a quarter to a half inch
across the area. Because it will move quickly expect the rain to
taper quickly from SW to NE late Monday evening and into the early
portions of the overnight. In fact, the entire region could be dry
towards midnight. Somewhat drier air then starts to work in briefly
behind it late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Temperatures
overall will average a few degrees above normal Monday and Monday
night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Amplified pattern shaping up for Tuesday through Wednesday.
Deepening upper level trough with strong SW to NE jet will
strengthen a frontal system approaching the area. The associated
warm front moves across Tuesday with an associated cold front moving
across Wednesday night.
The timeframe of Tuesday through Wednesday expected to have rain
across the region much of the time period. Wednesday night, the
precipitation becomes more intermittent, more in the way of showers.
With a strong cold air advection behind the front, potential for
mixing with snow and for some pure snow showers across the region
before all precipitation comes to a close.
Dynamic forcing appears with enhanced lift Wednesday will have some
potential for heavy rain. With how dynamic the flow is, model trends
will have to be analyzed for any changes in trough positioning and
low pressure. Also, if the low pressure deepens more than forecast,
resulting in further tightening of the pressure gradient, this would
make for higher winds than forecast. Current model consensus shows
the low just starting its deepening process as it traverses over the
local region Wednesday afternoon with more rapid deepening occurring
once the low is north and east of the region Wednesday night into
early Thursday.
Dry conditions expected thereafter through Friday as high pressure
builds in from the west. Temperatures above normal Tuesday through
Wednesday and then below normal Wednesday night through Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The region remains between high pressure to the south
and west and low pressure to the north and west. The low gets
closer to the area tonight and passes to the north on Sunday.
For the TAF period, mainly VFR conditions are expected. With the
approach of the low tonight, a few snow showers are possible
with some sleet possible as well. CT terminals and KSWF have the
better chance of seeing these snow showers with chances for
MVFR. Low chance of brief IFR. NYC terminals likely to remain
VFR through the TAF period.
Winds expected to remain gusty through much of the TAF period.
W/NW flow near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt expected into this
evening. Winds may briefly decrease this evening before picking
back up out of the SW overnight with gusts upwards of 20-25kt.
Winds shift more to the W on Sunday with gusts remaining through
the day upwards of 25-30kt possible. Gusts expected to end by
evening Sunday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon into this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday afternoon: VFR. Wind gusts 20-30 kt out of the west,
decreasing late in the afternoon.
Monday: MVFR to IFR at times in rain, particularly in the
afternoon and evening.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower during the day. Increasing chance of
rain late Tue into Tue night. IFR or lower possible at night.
Wednesday: MVFR to IFR. Possible sub-IFR at times. Rain
day into early evening with rain and snow showers for the rest
of the night. SW gusts 15-20 kt during day. W-NW gusts 15-20 kt
at night. Some NW gusts up to 25-30 kt possible at night.
Thursday: Mainly VFR with gusty W to NW winds 20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Winds do pick up tonight into Sunday as an area of low pressure
passing to the north tightens the pressure gradient. SCAs therefore
go into effect this evening through Sunday afternoon for all waters,
with the nearshore / non-ocean waters having small craft conditions
just before midnight. Occasional gusts may approach gale force late
tonight into Sunday morning on the central and eastern ocean, but
not enough occurrence, coverage, or length of time for gale warning
consideration at this time. SCA conds then continue on the ocean
through a portion of Sunday night. Seas subside below 5 ft by early
Monday morning and likely remain below 5 ft through Monday night.
Gusts may however briefly approach 25 kt as relatively weak area of
low pressure passing through attempts to strengthen.
Some lingering eastern ocean SCA conditions are anticipated Tuesday
into Tuesday night, followed by small craft conditions likely
returning for Wednesday on all ocean waters, with small crafts
becoming possible for the non-ocean waters late Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Small craft conditions will persist on the ocean
for Thursday with elevated seas, and may linger on the non-ocean
waters with marginal small craft gusts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic issues expected through Tuesday. Heavy rain possible
at times on Wednesday with the potential for minor flooding in low
lying and poor drainage areas. Model potential for PWATs of near 1.3
to 1.4 inches Wednesday, which would be above the 90th percentile
and around the max for OKX sounding climatology for December 11th.
Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) values from the ECMWF and the
GFS are projected to run high for eastern section for this time of
year with the mid week storm system.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JM
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JE/JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JE/JM
HYDROLOGY...JE/JM