567
FXUS61 KOKX 101018
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
518 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary front will remain just south of the area today,
and then lift through as a warm front tonight. Intensifying low
pressure and an associated strong cold front will impact the
area Wednesday into Wednesday night. A secondary cold front will
move through on Thursday, followed by high pressure building
across for late week. A weakening disturbance will move across
late in the weekend, followed by weak high pressure on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Skies remain overcast in the wake of weak low pressure passing
to the east, and north of a stationary front S of Long Island.
Low level moisture and light winds have led to fog formation,
especially in valley locations NW of NYC where the fog has
become locally dense.
Light N-NE flow will veer E this afternoon as the weak low to
the east pulls farther away, but the front to the south should
remain nearly stationary, so expect cloudy skies to persist
today, along with fog mainly NW of NYC, also a chance of
afternoon showers with the front just south and weak mid level
shortwave energy riding across in SW flow aloft. High temps
today will be in the 40s inland, and lower 50s across the NYC
metro area and Long Island.
Tonight the flow turns SE and then S, which should allow the
front to the south to start lifting into and through the area
tonight, especially late as low level flow just off the sfc also
increases. Warm advection and moisture transport in deep layer
S-SW flow aloft will also increase rain chances, especially
after midnight. Evening low temps from the mid 40s to near 50
should increase through the 50s overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Active weather expected with wind and heavy rain Wed into Wed
evening.
A deepening upper level trough across the Central states will
amplify and become negatively tilted as it approaches, with
an intensifying sfc low passing just NW of the area Wed
afternoon, and a trailing strong cold front pushing across
from late day Wed into Wed evening. Rain should become moderate
to locally heavy, and a narrow convective band developing ahead
of the front should help produce the heaviest rainfall across
S CT and central/eastern portions of Long Island, where WPC
highlights a slight risk of excessive rainfall. A few tstms are
possible in this corridor as well via marginal elevated
instability.
Forecast rainfall amounts range from 2-3 inches, highest across
SE CT, with locally higher amounts possible.
High Wind Watch remains in effect for eastern Suffolk and
southern New London Counties Wednesday afternoon/evening for
possible southerly gusts up to 60 mph as a strong LLJ passes
overhead in advance of the cold front. A wind advy will likely
be needed for most of the rest of the coast and the NYC metro
area, with potential for southerly gusts 45 to 55 mph Wednesday
afternoon and evening. There is still some possibility of the
strongest wind gusts extending farther west along the CT coast
and into the rest of Suffolk.
Winds shift to the W with cold fropa Wed night, and should still
be gusty with cold advection. Gusts should average 25-30 mph
much of the night.
Unseasonably mild temperatures of 60-65 on Wed should quickly
drop after fropa Wed evening, with lows in the 30s by daybreak
Thu.
The upper level trough axis pivots through and moves N of the
area on Thu, with strong CAA. Look for a windy day with a few
gusts potentially getting to about 40 mph. Winds start to
diminish Thu night. Highs on Thu will range only from the mid
30s to lower 40s, then fall to the upper teens and 20s Thu
night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west on Friday. Winds will
continue to subside as the center of the high pressure ridge
approaches. Sunny, but colder than normal with highs only in the
30s and early morning wind chills in the teens. The ridge axis
shifts through during Friday night into Saturday morning, with
the high shifting offshore Saturday afternoon into night. Dry
weather through at least Saturday evening, then some precip may
sneak in by late at night.
The better chances of precip will start on Sunday as a low
amplitude mid level trough approaches with a surface
reflection of a weak cold front or trough pushing in from the
west. Global models agree with precip along this boundary, but
the precip diminishes by the time the boundary would be over the
forecast area. As such, capped PoPs at chance. The trough aloft
flattens as it shifts through during Sunday night, with ridging
aloft to follow on Monday. Models still show precip potential
Sunday night into Monday with perhaps an inverted surface trough
extending northward into the area. Have therefore kept at least
a "hidden" slight chance of PoPs for Monday. As for precip
types Sunday through Monday, it should be rain for the most
part, however there could be some wintry precip types well
inland. Kept precip types simplified to rain/snow due to the
uncertainty, but with that said, spots well inland would
potentially see sleet and freezing rain as models indicate warm
air moving in aloft with near freezing surface temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A warm front just south of the southern terminals slowly lifts
north this afternoon into tonight. Low pressure and a cold
front approach late tonight.
Mainly IFR/LIFR. Possibly times of improvement to MVFR late this
afternoon/early afternoon, mainly for the city terminals. Rain
spreads west to east across the terminals tonight starting at
around 00z.
NE-ENE winds this morning under 10kt, increasing to around 10kt
this afternoon and veering more east. Winds bcmg more SE-S
tonight and increasing, becoming gusty late tonight with LLWS
possible near the start of the Weds morning push.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely regarding ceiling and visibility changes today
through tonight. Moderate confidence that cigs remain below 1000
ft through the TAF period.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late tonight: IFR and rain, chance of LLWS towards daybreak.
Wednesday: IFR and rain, possibly heavy at times. Chance of
thunder. S-SW gusts and LLWS increase through the day, with
gusts potentially up to 40-50 kt late afternoon and evening -
highest gusts and LLWS east of the city terminals. VFR returns
late Wednesday night with west winds around 30kt.
Thursday: VFR with W winds gusting around 30 kt.
Friday and Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Issued short fused SCA for the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet with
seas up to 5 ft. These conditions should last into mid morning.
Low pressure and its associated cold front will impact the
waters Wed into Wed evening. Southerly winds will increase with
quickly building seas through the day. Gales should develop on
all waters, and as a strong LLJ moves across there is potential
for storm force wind gusts across ern sections.
Once the strong low level jet passes, gales are likely to
continue elsewhere into Thursday. Rough seas are expected with
this system, up to 4-7 ft on the Sound and 12-18 ft on the
ocean late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Gales are likely on the ocean waters on Thu, and potentially on
the non-ocean waters as well as intensifying low pressure pulls
away to the north and a strong pressure gradient in place.
Winds should subside with SCA conditions likely for a good
portion of Thu night as things settle down quickly into early
Fri morning. Sub SCA conditions return on Fri and should last
into Sat with high pressure settling over the waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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QPF with a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall event from late
Tue night into Wed evening ranges from 2-3 inches, with locally
higher amts possible. The main threat from this rainfall will
be from minor urban and poor drainage flooding. There is also a
localized risk of flash flooding. Rivers and streams should
remain below flood stage, but are likely to see rises,
especially the more quickly responding locations.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tide levels are not astronomically high on Wednesday. While peak
surge is expected to occur Wed afternoon and early evening, most
locations should remain below minor flooding benchmarks. Will
have to watch trends in the Great South Bay as water levels may
remain elevated and could touch minor benchmarks as a strong
southerly flow switches to the west, preventing water from
escaping the bay quickly. Only minor beach flooding and minor
erosion is anticipated.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for CTZ012.
NY...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for NYZ079-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening
for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for
ANZ335-338-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC/BR
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC