423
FXUS61 KOKX 120400
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1100 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front swings east of the area tonight. High pressure will
gradually build Thursday and settle over the region Friday into
Saturday. High pressure slips offshore early Sunday with a weak area
of low pressure potentially passing through early next week before
another frontal system potentially impacts the area Tuesday into
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Surface cold front is now east of the area, pushing the main
precipitation shield making east as well. Scattered showers are
possible over the next few hours before dry conditions return
everywhere. With the front through the area, the chances for
heavy rain and high winds have ended, and thus have cancelled
the Flood Watch and all wind headlines. Breezy conditions will
continue however, with strong cold advection occurring behind
the front. Gusts up to 35 mph are expected, with an isolated
gusts to 40 mph over the next couple of hours.
Much colder air pours in from the west during the overnight
into the morning. Wake up wind chills are likely to get into the
lower and middle 20s across a good portion of the area. Actual
air temperatures are expected to settle close to freezing along
the coast, and a couple of degrees below further inland. There
may be a few slippery spots approaching daybreak, but with the
wind expecting much of the moisture along the ground to
evaporate. There will be still be some standing water / ponding
in a few spots which could freeze, especially further inland but
all in all not expecting widespread impacts from the cold air
surge into the morning commute.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The last spokes of energy from the upper level trough axis pivots
through and moves N of the area Thursday. This results in some
leftover CAA, especially further north across the area. Look for a
windy day with a few gusts potentially getting to about 35 mph,
especially across northern portions of the area on Thursday.
Forecast soundings look dry with moisture trapped some at around 5
kft, thus there may be some stratcu during the late morning and
afternoon. The winds start to subside later Thursday night with
light winds during the day Friday as high pressure quickly settles
over the area. For wake up wind chills Friday morning even though the
winds decrease some, expect widespread teens to around 20. With
synoptic scale subsidence in place expect mainly clear skies for
Thursday night through Friday as dry conditions prevail for the late
week period. With the return of a cP airmass temperatures will
average near 5 degrees below average Thursday, 5 to 8 degrees below
Thursday night (but feeling colder with the wind), and closer to 10
degrees below Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period will start off with a cold night Friday night.
A 1047 mb surface high builds in and will be centered just to
the north by Saturday morning. MOS guidance may be just a bit
aggressive with lows at this point given there is time for the
pressure gradient trend to change. For now, blended MOS in with
the NBM. This gives lows Friday night in the low teens across
the interior and LI Pine Barrens and 20s elsewhere. The high
remains in control on Saturday and with the cold airmass and a
N/NE flow, highs will likely only reach the 30s.
A return flow sets up Saturday night as the high shifts offshore.
Much of Sunday looks to be dry, but cloudy skies are expected as
moisture increases in the low levels from the return flow and as mid
and upper level clouds approach from the west.
Model spread increases as we head into Sunday night and through the
middle of next week. It looks like a pair of systems could bring
unsettled weather to the area. Given the uncertainty, stayed
relatively close to NBM PoPs. Any precipitation would likely fall as
plain rain, with the exception of portions of the interior where a
brief wintry mix at the start Sunday evening is possible.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Improving conditions continue with the front now east of all
terminals. Any terminals not VFR should improve to VFR by around
06Z or prior.
W to WNW (briefly NW right behind the front) winds will
continue overnight with gusts 25-30 kts. Winds shift more to
the W to WSW winds on Thursday and remain strong at 15-20 G20-30
kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for changing flight categories.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Night: VFR. W winds 15-20G30kt.
Friday and Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: MVFR or lower cond possible with light rain and low
clouds, especially late.
Monday: MVFR possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Winds have diminished over all waters and Storm Warnings have
been converted to Gale Warnings through the rest of the night.
Winds seem marginal right now, but with strong cold convection
behind the front, a few higher gusts well within gale criteria
are expected over the next few hours. Will have to monitor for
the potential to convert to SCA with upcoming updates.
SCA continue for Thursday on all waters and may linger into a
portion of Thursday night, before sub small conditions return
late at night and into Friday morning. Eastern ocean seas may
linger around 5 ft into a portion of Friday morning.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the waters Friday night through
Sunday. Later Sunday night into Monday small craft seas around 5 ft
on the ocean become increasingly likely.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic concerns for late this week through the middle of
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/JP/DR
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JE/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...