915
FXUS61 KOKX 130526
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1226 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Strong high pressure builds over the region through Saturday.
The high pressure retreats off the New England coast late in
the weekend followed by a weak disturbance to begin the work
week. Another disturbance in the form of a warm front, followed
by a cold front moves across Monday night into Tuesday. Weak
high pressure builds across for mid week. Another disturbance
may approach for Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Forecast largely on track early this morning. Winds continue to
weaken with most spots around 10 mph or less. Outlying
locations should see winds become light through day break. The
only challenge will be how much of the middle level deck of
clouds across N PA and upstate NY moves into the region. The
westerly, downslope flow aloft should help with limited the
coverage, but there may be some scattered clouds at times early
this morning. Otherwise, it will be cold with lows in the teens
inland to the low and mid 20s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Expecting dry weather, less gusty winds, and a very cold airmass
with much below normal temperatures Friday through Saturday.
Efficient radiational cooling expected Friday night into
Saturday morning. Mostly clear sky conditions expected through
this forecast period.
Core of cold airmass moves in Friday into Friday night with
850mb temperatures in -10 to -15 degrees C range. Forecast high
temperatures don`t get out of the 30s for Friday and Saturday.
Lows Friday night range from near 10 to lower 20s. Overall,
forecast highs around 10 degrees below normal and forecast lows
near 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
For Friday through Saturday, there will be a gradual weakening of
the height gradient aloft. A trough over the Northeast slowly
shifts farther north of the region with gradually rising
heights. The upper level jet streak remains over the area Friday
and then exits east of the area as well as weakens Friday
night. Northwesterly flow aloft Saturday. Main jet streak
continues moving east out into Atlantic Saturday.
At the surface, for Friday, strong high pressure continues to
approach from the west with its center within the Great Lakes
vicinity. For Friday night, the center of the high gets
stronger and moves farther into the Northeast. The center is
still expected to be west of the region Friday night into early
Saturday morning, more within the NE PA to Central NY state
region. For Saturday, the center of the high moves farther
north, eventually reaching near SE Canada with its axis moving
into the local region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will settle over the region Saturday night. With clear
skies and a light to calm winds and a cP air mass still in place
look for a good radiational cooling set up. Temperatures will be
allowed to drop into the teens across northern and rural locations.
A few locations perhaps getting to around 10 for a low Sunday
morning across far NW portions of Orange County, otherwise mainly
20s closer to the coast. The high will push offshore later Sunday
into Sunday night. The day Sunday will be dry, but with an increase
in upper and mid level clouds. Dewpoints will gradually rise through
the day with retreating high pressure moving off the New England
coast as an onshore wind develops out of the east. Temperatures
therefore moderate some, especially closer to the coast where 40s
take place, otherwise upper 30s inland.
For Sunday night look for cloudy conditions as a system which
weakens aloft approaches. Guidance is suggestive of enough thermal
advection to bring light precip into the area. The retreating high
will leave some low level cold air around initially late Sun night
into early Mon AM. Look for light precipitation to break out during
the overnight / early Monday AM for western sections where it may
begin as a little light snow / wintry mix. Any leftover cold air
will continue to retreat into Monday so look for mainly light rain
closer to the coast and for the city, and any wintry mix going over
to rain further inland. Temperatures should warm into the lower 50s
across southern coastal locations, to the lower 40s well north and
west. Another disturbance associated with a more potent shortwave
and a warm front is expected to move in quickly behind the first
disturbance. Therefore, look for another round of mainly light
precipitation Monday night into a good portion of Tuesday. Dew
points at this juncture should get into the 40s across most of the
area so p-type will be liquid once again. The cold front associated
with the second system swings through either later in the day
Tuesday or by early Tuesday evening. This will lead to drier air
arriving with some partial clearing into Tuesday night. Weak high
pressure should then settle over the area on Wednesday. There won`t
be much in terms of colder air behind the cold front as temperatures
on Wednesday will average a touch above normal with mainly middle
and upper 40s.
Another fast moving disturbance over the nation`s midsection will
attempt to approach on Thursday, but may arrive as early as
Wednesday night. There is a good amount of model disagreement on the
speed of this system. With a lack of cold air out in front of it
look for mainly a chance of rain Thursday, with perhaps a brief
wintry mix across far NW portions of the region as temperatures
should top out mainly in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure builds eastward from the Plains states.
W-WNW winds either side of 10 kt overnight will increase by
14Z-15Z, with gusts 15-20 kt, before diminishing again by late
afternoon. Winds then shift to the NW 10 kt or less by late
afternoon into the early evening. Light and variable winds
possible for most terminals tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected. Gusts in the late morning and
afternoon may only be occasional.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Late tonight through Saturday night: VFR.
Sunday: BKN MVFR cigs possible along the coast in the afternoon.
Sunday night: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions mainly after
midnight. Precip type a wintry mix at KSWF and rain elsewhere.
Monday: Light rain likely with MVFR cond expected. Wintry mix
still possible at KSWF early.
Tuesday...Light rain likely with IFR or lower cond possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA remains on the ocean early this morning. The SCA remains
east of Fire Island Inlet on ocean with otherwise sub-SCA
conditions on rest of waters. Winds on the ocean should fall
below 25 kt, but seas will remain elevated this morning before
subsiding below 5 ft this afternoon east of Fire Island Inlet.
Conditions will then remain below SCA through Sunday.
Seas will begin to gradually increase on the ocean during the
day Sunday into Sunday night. By Monday expect some 5 ft seas on
the ocean waters with marginal small craft conditions by the
afternoon. Small craft conditions should be in place on the
ocean Monday night into Tuesday. A southerly flow increases as
gusts approach small craft criteria during the day Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions forecast through Saturday.
There are no hydrologic impact threats through the middle of
next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
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A very strong high pressure is forecast to settle over the
northeast by Saturday. The potential high sea level pressure
(SLP) is close to the highest observed across the northeast in
December and in any month based on data from WPC. The highest
observed SLP in the northeast ranges from 1052-1054 mb, which
occurred on February 13, 1981. The highest observed SLP at
Central Park was 1052.5 mb, which also occurred on February 13,
1981. The highest observed SLP in the northeast for December
ranges from around 1049-1053 mb (1051.8 mb at Central Park),
which occurred on December 25, 1949.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JM
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JP/BG
MARINE...JE/JM
HYDROLOGY...JE/JM