005
FXUS61 KOKX 182023
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
323 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal wave will move across the area this evening, passing
to the east after midnight. High pressure briefly returns on
Thursday. A clipper system will then pass across the region
Friday as low pressure develops well offshore Friday afternoon
into Saturday morning. High pressure builds late Saturday
through the rest of the weekend and will remain in control early
next week. A weak frontal system may approach by Christmas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A quick moving frontal system will move through the area tonight
bringing around a third to a half inch of rainfall to the area.
The front results from the phasing of two troughs of low
pressure aloft, with subsequent strengthening of the polar jet
allowing for surface pressure falls along the coast. Overrunning
precipitation will develop and continue eastward, exiting the
area after midnight as the cold front moves through. Given the
low level inversion and weakening winds with this system, fog
may develop overnight as well. Although the precipitation type
is mainly expected to be rain, there could be a brief period of
snow across northern Orange County as the cold front moves
through, but probabilities of any accumulating snow are close to
zero.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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For Thursday, winds will initially be gusty from the NW around
15 to 25 mph as the cold front departs and high pressure builds
in from the west. Temperatures will be cooler than the previous
few days in a cold advection regime, but still a few degrees
above climatological normals in the low to mid 40s.
By Thursday night another trough begins to move through the
Great Lakes, coincident with a weak southern stream wave that
will remain offshore. Developing warm advection and onshore
flow between the two systems will allow an increase in cloud
cover overnight, with the possibility of some light rain and/or
snow closer to the coast by daybreak.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Unsettled conditions Friday into Saturday will transition to the
coldest air mass of Dec 2024 the rest of the weekend into early next
week.
Key Points:
* Minimal impacts are anticipated from offshore low pressure and a
Clipper system Friday into Saturday. There is a continued chance
of light snow, or a light rain/snow mix at the coast, Friday. Any
precip that falls Friday night into Saturday morning will be in
the form of light snow.
* Snowfall accumulations look light with potential of a coating down
to the coast late Friday night into Saturday morning. Across the
interior 1-2 inches possible across the duration of the event.
* An arctic airmass follows the rest of the weekend into next Monday
with potential for several areas, especially inland, not rising
above freezing for at least 3 consecutive days.
Guidance continues to be in good agreement overall regarding Friday
into Saturday with the main low pressure passing far enough
offshore, with minimal impacts to the area. There will also be a
clipper low that approaches on Friday, but likely gets absorbed by
the offshore low by Friday night. This transfer of energy may leave
a relative minimum in precipitation coverage over the area on
Friday. There is enough mid level energy to warrant the potential of
some light precip during the day into Friday night. Some of the
guidance has hinted at an inverted trough extending towards the
coast with the main upper trough still to the west into Friday
night. It is always difficult to pinpoint where this may occur, but
the latest guidance has hinted it may remain to our south with
potential of an extension into the Lower Hudson Valley.
Any precip that develops on Friday will be in the form of light snow
inland and rain, or a mixture of rain/snow, closer to the coast due
to slightly warmer air. Amounts will be light and it should be noted
there is potential that very little precip occurs across the area
during the daylight hours. Highs Friday range from the middle 30s
inland to the low 40s at the coast.
Precip chances gradually increase Friday night into Saturday morning
due to trailing middle level energy and a secondary trough axis.
Global guidance is in decent agreement with the placement and timing
of this feature. There appears to be a window with increased PVA,
which should support a band of light snow to sweep across the region
late Friday night into Saturday night. Amounts will be light with
this feature as well, but potential exists for a coating down to the
coast as colder air begins to move into the area.
Total snow accumulation from Friday into Saturday morning of an inch
or two well NW of the NYC metro with mainly a coating to under an
inch elsewhere. This potential light snow should quickly diminish in
coverage by afternoon with dry conditions following the rest of the
weekend.
The main weather story late Saturday through early next week will be
a very cold air mass settling over the area. A strong, Canadian high
pressure over the Great Lakes Saturday will build towards the
northeast on Sunday and then remain over the area next Monday.
Temperatures on Saturday look to reach the low and mid 30s, highest
near the coast. Cold advection increase Saturday night under modest
northerly flow around 10 mph gusting 15 to 20 mph. 850 mb
temperatures will also drop to -14C to -18C across the region and
even lower, closer to -20C, further north across New England. This
will allow temperatures to drop into the teens across the entire
area, with some single digits inland. Wind chills by Saturday
night/early Sunday morning fall to zero to five below inland and
single digits elsewhere. The coldest day will likely be Sunday with
highs in the lower 20s inland and middle to upper 20s closer to the
coast. The modest northerly flow will continue Sunday with potential
of 15-20 mph gusts making it feel like it is in the teens during the
day. Winds should diminish Sunday night as the high pressure settles
over the northeast. This should allow temps to fall into the single
digits inland with low and middle teens elsewhere. Light winds will
make it feel like the single digits early Monday morning.
The air mass slowly moderates by Monday with highs ranging from the
upper 20s inland to lower 30s near the coast. The high pressure
moves offshore by Monday night with guidance signaling potential for
the next frontal system to approach Tuesday or Wednesday.
Uncertainty is quite high at this time range so generally followed
the model consensus which for now is indicating low PoPs. Moderating
temperatures should bring us back to near seasonable levels by
Christmas Day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Weak high pressure slides east this afternoon as an area of low
pressure approaches and passes over the area tonight. The low exits
early Thursday morning with high pressure building in from the west.
VFR. Becoming MVFR toward 22Z with light rain developing, then
lowering to IFR by 02Z, with the NYC metro terminals remaining MVFR,
with a chance of IFR. Returning to VFR after 10-13Z Thursday.
Winds are still light and mainly out of the south, however as the
low approaches will shift to the east-southeast. Depending on the
track of low pressure, winds may briefly become light and variable
this evening. Then with the low passing to the east, winds become
northwest. Winds increase as the rain ends 10-15 kts with gusts
around 20 kts possible early tomorrow morning into early tomorrow
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for changing flight categories as the rain
approaches the area.
Gusts on Wednesday may be occasional at times. Can not rule out a
few gusts higher than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: VFR. NW gusts 15-20kt.
Friday: VFR, becoming MVFR, IFR at times, afternoon into night.
A chance of rain and/or snow during afternoon. A chance of snow at
night. NW gusts late at night 15-20 kt.
Saturday: MVFR to IFR with a slight chance of snow, ending late in
the afternoon. NW gusts 20-25 kt.
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A frontal wave today will bring a period of SCA conditions to
the ocean waters tonight, both in the pre- frontal SW flow and
post-frontal NW flow. These conditions will be short-lived as
high pressure builds in from the west on Thursday, allowing
winds and seas to subside.
An offshore low will bring increasing winds and seas Friday with
potential for marginal SCA conditions on the ocean late in the day.
SCA looks more likely on the ocean Friday night into Saturday as the
system departs and increases northerly flow behind it. Ocean seas
then look to remain elevated Saturday night into Sunday, but should
end up below 5 ft by Sunday night. Conditions will then remain below
SCA levels on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Thursday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for
ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/DS
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MD/DS
HYDROLOGY...MD/DS