231
FXUS61 KOKX 191801
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
101 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly moves in today. A clipper system will then
pass across the region Friday as low pressure develops well
offshore Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. High pressure
builds in from the west late Saturday through early next week. A
weak frontal system may approach by Christmas.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made some slight adjustments to dewpoints and temperatures as
well as cloud coverage to better match with observed trends.
Made high temperatures a degree higher than previously forecast
along and near the coast. The coastal locations should have
relatively warmer temperatures compared to inland due to downslope
flow, with highs mainly within the 45 to 47 degree range.
Low pressure will move farther away and into the Canadian
Maritimes through this afternoon.
As a surface high pressure system builds in and slides north of
the area into the afternoon, skies will become clear and the
wind will relax as the pressure gradient weakens. High
temperatures will be seasonable today with temperatures in the
low to middle 40s for much of the area.
High pressure remains overhead tonight with cloud cover once again
increasing as upper level moisture from an approaching clipper
system brings in high clouds into the area. Lows tonight will be in
the middle 20s to low 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement as to how the next
system develops. A large digging trough with an embedded vorticity
maximum approaches the East Coast early Friday. This will force a
surface coastal low development off the Carolina coast that will
move up the Eastern Seaboard, but well offshore. A clipper-
type system that approaches the coast at the same time from the
Ohio Valley likely gets absorbed into the developing coastal low
into Friday night. This may result in a minimum area of
precipitation over our CWA as the transfer of energy occurs.
Regarding sensible weather, scattered showers may develop ahead of
the coastal low over the area as early as Friday morning. These
would be in the form of rain along the coast and possible light snow
showers inland if they develop at all. As the low continues to
strengthen and move SE of the area Friday afternoon into the
evening, a more pronounced area of steadier precipitation may
develop and approach the extreme eastern portion of the CWA, namely
the Twin Forks of Long Island. Depending on the intensity of the
precipitation, the timing of any precipitation, and the
temperature, will depend on if it falls in the form of rain,
snow, or a mix of both. Regardless, the low quickly moves NE of
the area into Friday night and most precipitation should exit
with it.
Another piece of mid-level energy moves overhead in the passing
trough which may force a few more snow showers Saturday. All
precipitation looks to end by Saturday evening with a strong N flow
advecting frigid air into the area. Overall, less than an inch of
snow is expected over much of the CWA with the exception of some
interior areas should more persistent snow showers develop in higher
elevations or areas to the north where upwards of 2 inches may be
possible. Highs on Saturday will likely only be in the low to middle
30s, with lows Saturday night in the teens and possibly single
digits for the coldest spots in the interior.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:
* An Arctic airmass settles over the area Sunday into Monday.
Some inland locations may not get above freezing until
Christmas Day.
* Potential for a light wintry precipitation event heading toward
Christmas.
There is generally good agreement with the global models in building
strong Canadian high pressure out of eastern Canada Sunday and into
the Northeast early next week. Thus, closely followed the NBM with a
few noted exceptions detailed below. Where there are differences,
which could impact ptype heading toward Christmas Day, is with the
progression of the high and the amount of cold air damming along the
lee side of the Appalachians. The 00Z GFS is much more progressive
with the high, kicking it out in the western Atlantic by 00Z
Tuesday, while the ECMWF, Canadian, GEPS, and EPS are all
maintaining stronger high pressure over eastern Canada and into the
Northeast through the middle of next week. While the arctic air at
the onset of the period lifts out to the northeast Tuesday into
Wednesday, the consensus forecast approach would maintain a
marginally cold enough airmass for some light wintry precipitation
Christmas Eve (Tue night) into Christmas Day (Wednesday) with weak
frontal system. However, there are no indications of this being a
significant storm system.
More importantly, will be the very cold airmass across the area
Sunday into Monday with highs 15 to 18 degrees below normal. In
fact, with high pressure over the area Sunday night through Monday
night, opted to go colder using the NBM 50th percentile for
overnight lows. Much of the area by daybreak Monday will be in the
single digits to lower teens. Some of the normally colder sports
could even approach zero. Fortunately, winds will be light at this
time and apparent temperatures do not look cold enough for a Cold
Weather Advisory. The airmass will then gradually warmup close to
normal levels by midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will pass to the north through tonight.
Weakening low pressure will then approach from the west on
Friday, while another low passes to the southeast Friday
afternoon.
Winds NW either side of 10 kt this afternoon will then diminish
tonight while gradually veering N this evening and then NE after
midnight, and increasing to near 10 kt daytime Fri.
Flight cat VFR with lowering cigs late tonight, and MVFR cigs at
the NYC metros by 13Z-14Z, and spreading NE to the remaining
terminals by 15Z-17Z. Some light precip may be possible from the
NYC metros north/west toward the very end of the 24-hr TAF
period, with p-type most likely rain at the NYC metros, snow at
KSWF/KHPN.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday afternoon: IFR in light snow possible at KSWF/KHPN. MVFR
expected elsewhere, with a rain/snow mix at the NYC
metros/KBDR/KGON, and rain at KISP.
Friday night: Chance of snow with MVFR/IFR cond. NE winds
G15-20kt, strongest at the coastal terminals.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR or IFR in light snow into early
afternoon. NW winds G25kt.
Sunday: VFR. NW winds G20kt.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Brief SCA conditions on the ocean waters east of Fire Island
Inlet remain this morning with gusts near 25 kt and seas near 5
feet. These SCA conditions are expected to linger until early
this afternoon. SCA expires at 1PM this afternoon. Otherwise, sub-
SCA conditions are expected late this morning and through
tonight on all other waters. For the ocean east of Fire Island
Inlet after 1PM, sub-SCA conditions are then expected thereafter
through tonight.
Friday starts out below SCA on the forecast waters. However, an
offshore low will bring increasing winds and rising wave
heights to the ocean waters late Friday such that SCA are likely
afternoon with gusts 25-30 kt and waves 5-6 feet. Strong
northerly flow behind the departing system will likely allow for
SCA conditions to continue on the ocean and possibly spread to
the non-ocean waters during the day Saturday with gusts near 25
kt.
High pressure builds across the waters Sunday into Monday. Winds and
seas will subside during this time, however, 5 ft seas may linger on
the ocean waters Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW