320
FXUS61 KOKX 221812
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
112 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through Monday. A weak frontal
system approaches Monday night and moves through Tuesday. High
pressure builds into the area Wednesday and remains in control
through the end of the week. A frontal system may approach the
area by the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Arctic air mass in place over the Tri-State today with high
pressure building across the northeast. Breezy NW flow will
gradually weaken from west to east into the afternoon with
gusts subsiding through sunset. Temperatures have been slow to
rise with readings most areas a few degrees cooler than
previously expected. Have adjusted highs down a degree or two in
most spots with highs topping out in the upper teens inland and
low 20s elsewhere. Wind chills will be in the teens this
afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The center of the high pressure will be moving over the region
by late tonight and with clear skies ideal radiational cooling
will take place, especially across the interior with snow
covered ground. Inland overnight lows will be near 5 degrees
lower than Saturday night`s lows, and along the coast
temperatures will be only a degree or two lower. Once again, no
record lows are expected, with lows 10 to 15 degrees below
normal.
The high begins to move offshore late Monday into Monday night.
The airmass begins to modify, and highs Monday will be 5 to 10
degrees higher than Sunday`s, but still below normal. With a
light return flow Monday night and clouds increasing in advance
of a clipper system, temperatures will fall after sunset, then
become nearly steady, and even begin to rise, especially along
the coastal areas. The low will be passing to the north Monday
night and light snow will be possible mainly after midnight.
With the system weakening as it approaches, and little moisture,
any snowfall will be light, with just a tenth or two.
The low passes across the region Tuesday, and precipitation
ends during the afternoon. Total snow accumulations are most
likely to be under 1 inch.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Large-scale upper level ridging moves in Tuesday night and into
Christmas Day with surface high pressure building in from the
north. This surface high pressure remains fairly stationary over
Southeast Canada filtering air down into the Northeast through
much of the next week under a persistent NE flow. Some weak
transient pockets of energy attempt to approach the area over
the crest of the ridge through the middle of the week, but with
the stationary high pressure holding steady, this should result
in some occasional cloud cover at most through the end of the
week.
By the end of the week and into the weekend, a digging trough
over the Central US approaches the area, but global guidance
differs in timing and orientation of the approach of a surface
low. As of now, kept a slight chance to chance of precipitation
in the forecast for the weekend, but it`s possible that the
frontal system holds off impacts to the area until the beginning
of the following week.
Given the persistent NE flow under a high pressure system
through much of the long term, temperatures will begin slightly
below average and gradually moderate through the week. High
temperatures Wednesday will be in the middle to upper 30s with
moderating temperatures through the week so that by the weekend,
highs will be in the low to middle 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds across the terminals through Monday. A
frontal system approaches from the west late Monday, passing on
Christmas Eve (Tue).
VFR through the TAF period.
NW/NNW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt into early this
afternoon, though mainly occasional and only in TAFs for KJFK,
KLGA, KISP and KGON THROUGH 19-20Z. Winds drop below 10 kts
this evening. Light NW or VRB flow tonight into tomorrow morning
as high pressure centers overhead. Winds gradually shift out of
the SSW Monday afternoon with high clouds increasing in the
late afternoon/evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional at times through midday, before gusts
drop.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night-Tuesday: Chance of MVFR in light snow/light rain
mix, mainly into Tuesday morning.
Wednesday-Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
The pressure gradient over the waters is weakening this
afternoon allowing winds and seas to subside below Advisory
levels. Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels across
all the waters tonight through Tuesday. And sub-SCA conditions
are expected Wednesday through Friday with high pressure in
place and a weak pressure gradient over the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW