525
FXUS61 KOKX 241520
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1020 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper system passes north of the region today. High pressure
returns tonight and will remain in control through Saturday. A
frontal system slowly approaches Saturday night through Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Snowfall is quickly deteriorating and shifting to more eastern
locations this morning. The snow is becoming lighter with less
in the way of accumulations expected. Snow lingering across
Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut within next hour.
Mainly dry conditions expected for the entire region after 11AM.
Helping ensure dry conditions is overall mid level negative
vorticity advection this afternoon which will allow for more
subsidence of vertical motions.
Conditions will quickly improve from west to east through late
this morning. Dry conditions are expected across the area
this afternoon with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures
should be able to rise into the middle and upper 30s in the
afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The shortwave and clipper system continue moving off the New England
coast tonight. Ridging builds aloft behind it allowing surface high
pressure to return across New England Tuesday through Thursday
night. Expect dry, but cold conditions with temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday in the 30s and lows at night falling into the teens and
20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper ridging along the east coast Friday moves into the Western
Atlantic during Friday into Saturday, and remains into Sunday. A
trough over the midsection of the nation sends a shortwave through
the area Sunday night into Monday. At the surface high pressure over
the region Friday shifts into the Atlantic through the weekend. A
frontal wave approach Saturday night and moves through the area into
the beginning of next week. Timing of the system has come into
better agreement however, placement is still somewhat uncertain.
Especially by Sunday the placement of the wave, and potentially a
warm front becomes more uncertain.
And uncertainty with temperatures increases. Have generally used
the NBM probabilities, but capped at the high end of chance.
Precipitation will be mainly rain, with a chance of some light snow
at the onset Saturday night.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals Friday, and then rise
above normal Saturday into the beginning of next week. Used the
deterministic temperatures Saturday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak frontal system passes through the terminals into early this
afternoon. High pressure then slowly builds in through
Christmas morning.
A dissipating band of snow working east across eastern LI and
SE CT will push offshore by 16Z. Improving to VFR with
occasional MVFR possible 1-2 hours after snow ends.
Winds W/SW 5-12 kt becoming NW around 10 kt around midday, and
N less than 10 kt this evening and tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts this morning 15-18kt. Brief MVFR possible through
16Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday through Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A weak clipper system passes across the waters today. High
pressure then returns through the end of the week. Conditions
will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night.
With high pressure in control Friday through Saturday winds and
seas will remain below advisory levels across the forecast
waters. A frontal system approaches Saturday night, and with a
southeast flow ocean seas may builds to SCA levels Sunday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/JM
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET/DW
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET