708
FXUS61 KOKX 251146
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
646 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the Northeast and southern Quebec through
Friday night. The high slides east of the area Saturday as a
warm front approaches into Sunday, with an attendant cold front
moving through on Monday. Another frontal system may impact the
region into mid next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.
Special Weather Statement continues until 10 am for patchy
black ice this morning across portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley and northeast NJ, where temperatures are well below
freezing and RH values are in the 75-90%+ range. Clouds across
these areas have kept the temperature/dew point depressions low
as compared to surrounding cloud free areas. However, current
satellite imagery shows some scattering out of these clouds, and
this may allow some higher temperatures/dew point depressions,
leading to some improvement of any black ice over the next few
hours. Any areas with high RH values have the potential for
moisture to freeze on any untreated surfaces.
Cold, but dry conditions expected today as the center of high
pressure settles over the Northeast. Any morning clouds are expected
to diminish through the morning thanks to large scale subsidence
associated with the high.
Seasonably cold temperatures expected on a light northerly flow
today. Highs will only reach the lower to middle 30s, about 5 to 10
degrees below normal for this time of year.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tranquil weather will continue through the end of the week as high
pressure remains over the Northeast into southern Quebec. Clouds may
increase somewhat overnight tonight into Thursday morning with the
approach of a shortwave aloft, but expect it to generally be partly
cloudy. Thereafter, riding builds to our west Thursday and the ridge
axis moves over the area Thursday night into Friday morning.
Therefore, expect temperatures to slowly warm through the period,
reaching seasonable levels by Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM through the long term with not much
change from previous forecast.
Surface high pressure slides north and east Friday night
and Saturday as the ridging begins to shift offshore. Meanwhile, a
weak mid level shortwave swinging through the Great Lakes will
attempt to send a warm front toward the region Saturday into Sunday,
bringing chances for some light precipitation. However, with the
ridging in place, and strongest forcing well to the west, conditions
may remain dry, but can`t entirely rule out spotty light rain or
drizzle Saturday or Saturday evening. PoPs then increase through the
day Sunday with the approach of the attendant cold front, and rain
becomes likely by Sunday night. Temperatures increase with the
resultant WAA, and sounding profiles indicate rain as the dominant
ptype from this system.
Guidance begins to diverge hereafter, with some members deepening a
surface wave nearby along the frontal boundary, enhancing rainfall
through Monday. Others are more progressive and lighter with
amounts. Either way, an unsettled start early next week, with
another frontal system likely to follow into midweek. Capped PoPs at
chance after Monday given the uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds over the terminals today.
VFR. N winds this morning expected to back slightly in the
afternoon to the NW before becoming N again in the evening. Wind
speeds will be under 10 kt early this morning, but increase to
around 10 kt late morning and afternoon. Wind speeds weaken in
the evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday through Saturday: VFR.
Saturday night-Sunday: Chance of rain and MVFR or lower.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n900
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through the end of the week with high
pressure in control.
High pressure remains in control Saturday with winds and seas
remaining below advisory levels. A frontal system approaches
Saturday night, and with a southeast flow ocean seas may builds
to SCA levels Sunday night. Marginal SCA conditions will be
possible to start the new week with unsettled weather conditions
remaining over the area waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP