159
FXUS61 KOKX 251534
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1034 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the Northeast and southern Quebec through
Friday night. The high slides east of the area Saturday as a
warm front approaches into Sunday, with an attendant cold front
moving through on Monday. Another frontal system may impact the
region into mid next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Large scale picture in the mid levels a shortwave moves across
early this afternoon while at the surface, high pressure will
build in from the north.
For locations across western parts of the Lower Hudson Valley,
western Long Island, NYC, and NE NJ, still mostly cloudy while
more sun is present to the east across the remainder of the
region. Expecting drier air to help scatter out clouds for the
western parts of the region into the afternoon, making for
mostly sunny skies for all locations this afternoon.
Temperatures will remain cold, but were slightly adjusted up to
better match observed trends. Vertical mixing expected up to
near 900 to 875mb today. Coastal locations relatively warmer
with downslope flow.
Highs will only reach the lower to upper 30s, around 5 degrees
below normal for this time of year.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tranquil weather will continue through the end of the week as high
pressure remains over the Northeast into southern Quebec. Clouds may
increase somewhat overnight tonight into Thursday morning with the
approach of a shortwave aloft, but expect it to generally be partly
cloudy. Thereafter, riding builds to our west Thursday and the ridge
axis moves over the area Thursday night into Friday morning.
Therefore, expect temperatures to slowly warm through the period,
reaching seasonable levels by Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM through the long term with not much
change from previous forecast.
Surface high pressure slides north and east Friday night
and Saturday as the ridging begins to shift offshore. Meanwhile, a
weak mid level shortwave swinging through the Great Lakes will
attempt to send a warm front toward the region Saturday into Sunday,
bringing chances for some light precipitation. However, with the
ridging in place, and strongest forcing well to the west, conditions
may remain dry, but can`t entirely rule out spotty light rain or
drizzle Saturday or Saturday evening. PoPs then increase through the
day Sunday with the approach of the attendant cold front, and rain
becomes likely by Sunday night. Temperatures increase with the
resultant WAA, and sounding profiles indicate rain as the dominant
ptype from this system.
Guidance begins to diverge hereafter, with some members deepening a
surface wave nearby along the frontal boundary, enhancing rainfall
through Monday. Others are more progressive and lighter with
amounts. Either way, an unsettled start early next week, with
another frontal system likely to follow into midweek. Capped PoPs at
chance after Monday given the uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds over the terminals today.
VFR. BKN cigs 040-045 will scatter out from NNE to SSW into
early this afternoon.
N winds 10 kt or less this morning expected to back slightly in
the afternoon to the NW before becoming N again in the evening.
Wind speeds decrease in the evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday through Saturday: VFR.
Saturday night-Sunday: Chance of rain and MVFR or lower.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n900-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through the end of the week with high
pressure in control.
High pressure remains in control Saturday with winds and seas
remaining below advisory levels. A frontal system approaches
Saturday night, and with a southeast flow ocean seas may builds
to SCA levels Sunday night. Marginal SCA conditions will be
possible to start the new week with unsettled weather conditions
remaining over the area waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/DW
MARINE...BC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP