609
FXUS61 KOKX 252054
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
354 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through Friday. The high
slides east of the area Saturday as a warm front approaches into
Sunday, with an attendant cold front moving through on Monday.
Another frontal system impacts the region into mid next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A midlevel shortwave moves in from the north late tonight. At the
surface though, high pressure will continue to build in from the
north.
With the shortwave, expecting an abundant amount of cirrus to move
across the region late tonight into early Thursday. However, there
is enough dry air to preclude precipitation. Dry conditions are
expected to continue.
For the low temperature forecast, used a CONSMOS and NBM blend,
which has slightly higher temperatures than MOS alone for most
locations. The forecast of slightly higher temperatures is to
account for extra clouds to partially limit radiational cooling.
The forecast lows range from lower teens to mid 20s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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After the shortwave passes south of the region early Thursday,
strong mid level ridging expected Thursday afternoon into early
Friday. Mid level ridge axis moves overhead early Friday and then
shifts east of the region. Some warmer air at 850mb will be moving
in Thursday through Friday. Eventually SW flow becomes more
established at 850mb for late Thursday night into Friday.
At the surface, high pressure remains strong across the local region
with MSLP of near 1030mb. The center of the high is north of the
area Thursday and then gets more into the local area Thursday
night into Friday.
Dry weather is expected to continue. Clouds abundant early Thursday
are expected to decrease during the day and especially in the
afternoon. Mostly clear conditions Thursday night will be followed
by an increase in clouds during the day Friday.
Regarding temperatures, used a MAV and MET blend for high
temperature forecast Thursday. These represent slightly warmer
temperatures than the previous day with the warmer air moving in
aloft. Highs forecast range mainly from mid 30s to around 40. Warmer
air will get mixed down to the surface Thursday.
Again using the MAV/MET blend for low temperatures Thursday night.
With ridge moving overhead, this should make for mostly clear sky
conditions and with light winds, radiational cooling will be
efficient. A vast range of lows forecast, from single digits inland
to near 30 within NYC.
Used a NBM and CONSMOS blend for high temperatures Friday with
temperatures ranging more in the upper 30s to near 40. Winds will
eventually become more SW but will remain very light, limiting the
vertical mixing and thereby adiabatic vertical mixing
potential. This will limit how high temperatures will rise in
addition to the increase in clouds during the day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Becoming milder and unsettled this weekend and early to mid next
week with a series of systems traversing the region.
Deep layer ridging and surface high pressure shift east and offshore
Friday night and Saturday. Meanwhile, a weak mid level shortwave
swinging through the Great Lakes will attempt to send a warm front
toward the region Saturday into Sunday, returning chances for
precipitation. Global guidance has sped up the timing of this
system, and PoPs have increased on Saturday as a result. Return
surface flow sets up as the high moves offshore, and WAA with SW
winds aloft begin to gradually increase temperatures into early next
week. Despite a warm nose just above the surface, with cold
antecedent conditions, and marginal surface temperatures progged
near freezing Saturday morning across the interior, it`s not out of
the question a bit of freezing rain could occur with the initial
precip, depending on timing. This is a concern primarily north and
west of NYC and coastal locales. Otherwise, intermittent light rain
is possible Saturday and Saturday night across the region. Warm
sector on Sunday keeps conditions drear, and PoPs increase once
again with the attendant cold front into Sunday night and Monday.
Guidance continues to diverge hereafter, with some members deepening
a surface wave nearby along the frontal boundary, enhancing rainfall
through Monday. Others are more progressive and lighter with
amounts. Either way, an unsettled start early next week, with
another frontal system likely to follow into midweek. Capped PoPs at
50% after Monday given the uncertainty, with the national blend
largely relied on for this update.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong high pressure will remain nearly stationary across the
area through Thursday.
VFR. Northerly winds less than 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday through Saturday AM: VFR.
Saturday Afternoon-Sunday: Rain becoming increasingly likely
with MVFR/IFR conditions. Chance of LLWS.
Monday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain, mainly in the morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n900
&&
.MARINE...
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With high pressure in control and the pressure gradient remaining
weak, winds and seas are expected to remain well below SCA
thresholds through Friday.
Conditions remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through
Saturday. A frontal system then approaches, and the resultant
southeast flow may allow ocean seas to build toward and above 5 ft
by late Sunday or Sunday night. Wind gusts up to 25 kt are also
possible by Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Dry conditions are expected through Friday.
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR