419
FXUS61 KOKX 261131
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
631 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the Northeast and southern Quebec through
Friday, pushing offshore Friday night into Saturday. A warm front
approaches Saturday night into Sunday, with a cold front moving
through on Monday. Another frontal system impacts the region into
mid next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.
Dry conditions with mostly clear skies are expected today as high
pressure dominates. Any clouds over eastern are expected to advect
east in association with an upper level shortwave that will move
through, pushing off the southeast coast of New England by late this
morning into the afternoon. An upper level ridge over the Great
Lakes will move into western portions of the Northeast by this
afternoon and this evening, remain west of our forecast area.
Temperatures are expected to be seasonably chilly, with highs in the
lower to middle 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tranquil weather will continue through the end of the week as high
pressure remains over the Northeast into southern Quebec. The ridge
axis moves over the area tonight into Friday morning. A southern
stream ridge then builds in from our south on Saturday as a warm
front approaches from the southeast. This will bring the next chance
for precipitation late Friday night into Saturday. A number of
deterministic models show the potential for some freezing rain for
portions of the forecast area, so continue the mention this threat.
Chances for freezing rain start off low as chances for precipitation
are low to begin with late Friday night. The best chance for
freezing rain would be around daybreak Saturday, mainly across
northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley an inland southern CT.
But even here, precipitation amounts are expected to be light, with
just a few hundredths of an inch, despite chances for precipitation
increasing. With such low chances and/or low precipitation amounts,
held off with any mention of freezing rain in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook. Temperatures are expected to rise to above freezing by the
late morning, changing any precipitation to plain rain everywhere by
late morning. Light rain then continues for the rest of Saturday.
Temperatures are expected to slowly warm through the period,
reaching seasonable levels by Friday and above normal by
Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mild, unsettled period of weather expected for much of the long
term. Stuck fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast.
A warm front near the region Saturday night will push northward
across the area early Sunday. With the region in the warm sector on
Sunday, expect cloudy conditions with rain chances gradually
increasing as we move through the day as a cold front approaches
from the west. Expect a period of rain Sunday night into Monday with
the frontal passage. Can not rule out a rumble of thunder Sunday
night, especially west of NYC, however confidence remains low at
this time and will leave out of the forecast. It appears now that
the heaviest of the rain will occur overnight and into the first
half of Monday, which is slightly faster than last nights model
runs. The front should move east of the CWA by Monday mid afternoon,
with drier air moving into the region for Monday night.
Another frontal system is then expected for the middle part of next
week, possibly impacting the area New Years eve into New Years day.
With some uncertainties in the forecast models, will cap POPs at 50
percent.
Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s, then upper 40s
and lower 50s Tuesday. Temperatures will remain the 40s to near 50
on Wednesday, then in the upper 30s and lower to middle 40s on
Thursday. .
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strong high pressure will remain nearly stationary across the area
through the end of the week.
VFR. The only exception is at KGON where MVFR ceilings 2.5kft-3kft
are likely after through around 12-14z.
Light N flow around 5-8 kt early this morning backs slightly to the
NW by this afternoon. Outlying terminals may stay light and variable
through the TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR.
Friday Night-Saturday Afternoon: MVFR possible. Low chance for light
rain. Light freezing rain possible north and west of the NYC
metro early Saturday morning.
Saturday Afternoon-Sunday: Rain becoming likely with MVFR/IFR
conditions. Chance of LLWS. SE gusts 15-20 kt Sunday.
Monday: MVFR/IFR. Rain, mainly in the morning. SE gusts 15-20 kt in
the morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With high pressure over the region into the beginning of the
weekend, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA
criteria.
A frontal system will move across the area waters Sunday and Monday,
with SCA conditions returning Sunday night and Monday as winds
increase to near 25 kt and seas build to 5-7 ft. Conditions fall
below SCA levels on Tuesday, however this may be short lived as
another frontal system approaches for Tuesday night and
Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP