523
FXUS61 KOKX 281239
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
739 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches this morning and lingers over or near the
area before pushing north on Sunday. A cold front moves through
late Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will then briefly
move in for Tuesday followed by another low pressure system moving
over the area on Wednesday. Low pressure remains over souther
Quebec while high pressure builds to the south through the end of
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*Icy conditions remain possible this morning across the
interior. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect.
As a warm front approaches, overrunning precipitations has spread
across the area. Aloft, the column is warm and allowing for
everything to fall as liquid. While temperatures have been running a
bit higher than forecast, many locations across the interior are
still below freezing and in turn seeing freezing rain. Even
locations that have warmed to above freezing may still see freezing
rain for an hour or two longer as ground/road temperatures can lag.
The Advisory has been canceled for portions of northeast NJ as
temperatures have been above freezing for a few hours now.
Elsewhere, enough isolated temperature readings of around
freezing were seen to warrant continuing the Advisory. An SPS
was reissued for coastal CT also for isolated freezing
temperatures. The higher confidence is farther east where
temperatures were able to drop quickly yesterday evening under
light winds and clearer skies.
By mid to late morning all plain rain is expected. The warm
front will linger nearby the area the rest of today and rain is
expected to continue. Temperatures likely warm into the low 50s
across Long Island, with 40s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The warm front remains over or near the area tonight and will result
in plenty of cloud cover and drizzle and/or rain. The flow remains
weak overnight, under 5 kt, but given it is southerly and we have
plenty of cloud cover temperatures should only drop down to the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Used a blend of the NBM and raw model temps
for lows tonight.
The pressure gradient starts increasing Sunday morning as a low
pressure system approaches from the west. This low will track to our
north and west over the Great Lakes and is associated with a
negatively tilted upper level trough lifting out of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The strengthening southerly flow pushes the warm
front north of the area by the late morning/early afternoon. With
the area warm sectored for the rest of Sunday, there will likely be
a dry period. Latest guidance shows little to no QPF Sunday
afternoon which is supported by forecast soundings showing drying of
the column and little to no lift. Also, given the strengthening
southerly flow, temperatures likely warm up to the 50s and
potentially even low 60s. The NBM deterministic was falling below
the 50th percentile so went straight 50th percentile for highs
Sunday to bump up a few degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong cold front approaches the area from the west Sunday night,
on the doorstep of the forecast area by daybreak Monday. As the low
pressure associated with the cold front strengthens and pushes north
from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes, the cold front will make
its way through the area into Monday, pushing offshore late Monday
morning into early Monday afternoon. Light to moderate rainfall is
expected for much of the area Sunday night with persistent strong
southerly flow advecting warmer air into the area. 1 to 1.5 inches
of rainfall are expected with the frontal passage. WPC has western
portions of the area in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, but
generally dry antecedent conditions and moderate rainfall intensity
should result in minimal if any hydrologic or flooding concerns.
High temperatures both Sunday and Monday are expected to be in the
lower to middle 50s, well above average for this time of the year.
The low exits the area to the north as subtle mid-level ridging
builds over the Western Atlantic allowing for surface high pressure
to nose into the area from the southeast Monday night. Meanwhile,
another strong shortwave rounds the base of a mid-level trough over
the Central US allowing for another surface low pressure to develop
over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic by midweek. Global models
differ on details of this system but the low looks to pass either
overhead or nearby on Wednesday and may occlude northeast of the
area as it rapidly intensifies through the end of the week. This
would lead to a period of rainfall on Wednesday with a strong
persistent NW flow for the remainder of the week with generally dry
conditions as the low meanders over southern Quebec and high
pressure builds south of the forecast area.
Temperatures slowly cool through the period from Monday onward,
reaching seasonable levels by Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front approaches the area this morning and weakens over the
area. Another warm front approaches late tonight and remains in
the vicinity through daybreak Sunday.
Widespread LIFR conditions today in light rain through much of
the forecast period, some improvement towards daybreak Sunday is
possible.
Light S/SE to variable winds this morning, with coastal terminals
possibly increasing to S/SW 5-7 kt this afternoon, and then light SE
to variable tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Plain rain for city terminals. IFR to LIFR likely for morning
push, LIFR for evening push. Winds generally 5kt or less, with
low confidence in prevailing wind direction.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: Improvement to IFR/MVFR with a slight chance for showers
in the morning.
Sunday night into Mon Morning: -RA/RA and IFR conds. Chance of LLWS.
S winds with gusts up to around 30kt.
Monday afternoon: Becoming VFR with W winds.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, likely MVFR late Tue/Tue Night in -RA.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower in -RA likely, improvement to VFR possible
late.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient today and tonight will lead to quiet
conditions on the waters. Southerly winds start picking up ahead of
a low pressure system on Sunday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
possible by late Sunday evening, but confidence in timing is
too low at this time to issue the hazard.
A frontal system will move across the area waters Sunday night and
Monday, with SCA conditions returning Sunday night and Monday as
winds increase to near 25 kt and ocean waves build to 5-9 ft.,
building to 6 to 10 ft Monday morning. Sheltered waters may have
SCA conditions as well. Conditions fall below SCA levels on Tuesday
for most waters (the eastern ocean zone may not fall below 5 ft
during this time frame), however this may be short lived as another
frontal system approaches for Tuesday night and Wednesday, possibly
allowing for additional SCA conditions on the ocean.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next
weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
CTZ005>008.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ069-
070.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
NYZ067-068.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NJZ002-
103.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT