687
FXUS61 KOKX 281440
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
940 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front lingers over or near the area before pushing north
on Sunday. A cold front moves through late Sunday night into
Monday. High pressure will then briefly move in for Tuesday
followed by another low pressure system moving over the area on
Wednesday. Low pressure remains over souther Quebec while high
pressure builds to the south through the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The winter weather advisory has been allowed to expire across
the more eastern northern zones and across interior NE NJ as
temperatures have risen above freezing. The winter weather
advisory has been cancelled over Orange and Putnam counties as
any widespread ice / freezing rain threat has ended. An SPS has
been put in place primarily for isolated spots of near freezing
temperatures of western and northwestern Orange County through
midday as there may still be a few spots where the near sfc cold
air has not been completely scoured out. In any event, temps
will continue to gradually rise in these locations through the
early afternoon.
The higher res guidance / CAMs continue to show consistent
pockets of primarily light rain through today. The warm front
will linger nearby the area the remainder of the day is expected
to more or less wash out over or just to the immediate west.
Temperatures likely warm into the lower 50s eventually across
Long Island, with primarily 40s elsewhere, and some isolated
pockets of upper 30s across far northwestern interior locations.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The warm front remains over or near the area tonight and will result
in plenty of cloud cover and drizzle and/or rain. The flow remains
weak overnight, under 5 kt, but given it is southerly and we have
plenty of cloud cover temperatures should only drop down to the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Used a blend of the NBM and raw model temps
for lows tonight.
The pressure gradient starts increasing Sunday morning as a low
pressure system approaches from the west. This low will track to our
north and west over the Great Lakes and is associated with a
negatively tilted upper level trough lifting out of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The strengthening southerly flow pushes the warm
front north of the area by the late morning/early afternoon. With
the area warm sectored for the rest of Sunday, there will likely be
a dry period. Latest guidance shows little to no QPF Sunday
afternoon which is supported by forecast soundings showing drying of
the column and little to no lift. Also, given the strengthening
southerly flow, temperatures likely warm up to the 50s and
potentially even low 60s. The NBM deterministic was falling below
the 50th percentile so went straight 50th percentile for highs
Sunday to bump up a few degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong cold front approaches the area from the west Sunday night,
on the doorstep of the forecast area by daybreak Monday. As the low
pressure associated with the cold front strengthens and pushes north
from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes, the cold front will make
its way through the area into Monday, pushing offshore late Monday
morning into early Monday afternoon. Light to moderate rainfall is
expected for much of the area Sunday night with persistent strong
southerly flow advecting warmer air into the area. 1 to 1.5 inches
of rainfall are expected with the frontal passage. WPC has western
portions of the area in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, but
generally dry antecedent conditions and moderate rainfall intensity
should result in minimal if any hydrologic or flooding concerns.
High temperatures both Sunday and Monday are expected to be in the
lower to middle 50s, well above average for this time of the year.
The low exits the area to the north as subtle mid-level ridging
builds over the Western Atlantic allowing for surface high pressure
to nose into the area from the southeast Monday night. Meanwhile,
another strong shortwave rounds the base of a mid-level trough over
the Central US allowing for another surface low pressure to develop
over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic by midweek. Global models
differ on details of this system but the low looks to pass either
overhead or nearby on Wednesday and may occlude northeast of the
area as it rapidly intensifies through the end of the week. This
would lead to a period of rainfall on Wednesday with a strong
persistent NW flow for the remainder of the week with generally dry
conditions as the low meanders over southern Quebec and high
pressure builds south of the forecast area.
Temperatures slowly cool through the period from Monday onward,
reaching seasonable levels by Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A warm front approaches and weakens over the area this
afternoon. Another warm front approaches late tonight and
remains in the vicinity through daybreak Sunday.
Widespread LIFR conditions this afternoon in light rain through
much of the forecast period, some improvement towards daybreak
Sunday is possible but any improvement is more likely Sunday
afternoon.
Light S/SE to variable winds, with coastal terminals possibly
increasing to S/SW 5-7 kt this afternoon, and then light SE to
variable tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
LIFR likely all day. Winds generally 5kt or less, with low
confidence in prevailing wind direction.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: Improvement to IFR/MVFR with a slight chance for showers
in the morning.
Sunday night into Mon Morning: -RA/RA and IFR conds. Chance of LLWS.
S winds with gusts up to around 30kt.
Monday afternoon: Becoming VFR with W winds.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, likely MVFR late Tue/Tue Night in -RA.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower in -RA likely, improvement to VFR possible
late.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A marine dense fog advisory has been issued until at least
midday for prevailing 1 nm or less visibilities across
primarily the more southwestern coastal waters as a warm front
washes out just to the immediate west. A weak pressure gradient
today and tonight will lead to quiet conditions on the waters.
Southerly winds start picking up ahead of a low pressure system
on Sunday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible by late
Sunday evening, but confidence in timing is too low at this time
to issue the hazard.
A frontal system will move across the area waters Sunday night and
Monday, with SCA conditions returning Sunday night and Monday as
winds increase to near 25 kt and ocean waves build to 5-9 ft.,
building to 6 to 10 ft Monday morning. Sheltered waters may have
SCA conditions as well. Conditions fall below SCA levels on Tuesday
for most waters (the eastern ocean zone may not fall below 5 ft
during this time frame), however this may be short lived as another
frontal system approaches for Tuesday night and Wednesday, possibly
allowing for additional SCA conditions on the ocean.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ338-345-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT