537
FXUS61 KOKX 281745
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1245 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lingers over or near the area before pushing north
on Sunday. A cold front moves through late Sunday night into
Monday. High pressure will then briefly move in for Tuesday
followed by another low pressure system moving over the area on
Wednesday. Low pressure remains over souther Quebec while high
pressure builds to the south through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The SPS has been allowed to expire for isolated spots that were
near freezing temperatures in western and northwestern Orange
County as temperatures continue to slowly rise through the
afternoon.
The higher res guidance / CAMs continue to show consistent
pockets of primarily light rain through the afternoon across
mainly the southern and southeastern half of the CWA. Previously
inherited PoPs appear to be holding up well as PoPs trail of
some across the northwestern third of the region going through
the remainder of the afternoon as a coastal boundary appears to
take over as the primary focus mechanism of minor lift. The
warm front will linger nearby for the remainder of the day and
is expected to more or less wash out over or just to the
immediate west. Temperatures likely warm into the lower 50s
eventually across Long Island, with primarily 40s elsewhere, and
some isolated pockets of upper 30s across far northwestern
interior locations.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The warm front remains over or near the area tonight and will result
in plenty of cloud cover and drizzle and/or rain. The flow remains
weak overnight, under 5 kt, but given it is southerly and we have
plenty of cloud cover temperatures should only drop down to the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Used a blend of the NBM and raw model temps
for lows tonight.
The pressure gradient starts increasing Sunday morning as a low
pressure system approaches from the west. This low will track to our
north and west over the Great Lakes and is associated with a
negatively tilted upper level trough lifting out of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The strengthening southerly flow pushes the warm
front north of the area by the late morning/early afternoon. With
the area warm sectored for the rest of Sunday, there will likely be
a dry period. Latest guidance shows little to no QPF Sunday
afternoon which is supported by forecast soundings showing drying of
the column and little to no lift. Also, given the strengthening
southerly flow, temperatures likely warm up to the 50s and
potentially even low 60s. The NBM deterministic was falling below
the 50th percentile so went straight 50th percentile for highs
Sunday to bump up a few degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong cold front approaches the area from the west Sunday night,
on the doorstep of the forecast area by daybreak Monday. As the low
pressure associated with the cold front strengthens and pushes north
from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes, the cold front will make
its way through the area into Monday, pushing offshore late Monday
morning into early Monday afternoon. Light to moderate rainfall is
expected for much of the area Sunday night with persistent strong
southerly flow advecting warmer air into the area. 1 to 1.5 inches
of rainfall are expected with the frontal passage. WPC has western
portions of the area in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, but
generally dry antecedent conditions and moderate rainfall intensity
should result in minimal if any hydrologic or flooding concerns.
High temperatures both Sunday and Monday are expected to be in the
lower to middle 50s, well above average for this time of the year.
The low exits the area to the north as subtle mid-level ridging
builds over the Western Atlantic allowing for surface high pressure
to nose into the area from the southeast Monday night. Meanwhile,
another strong shortwave rounds the base of a mid-level trough over
the Central US allowing for another surface low pressure to develop
over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic by midweek. Global models
differ on details of this system but the low looks to pass either
overhead or nearby on Wednesday and may occlude northeast of the
area as it rapidly intensifies through the end of the week. This
would lead to a period of rainfall on Wednesday with a strong
persistent NW flow for the remainder of the week with generally dry
conditions as the low meanders over southern Quebec and high
pressure builds south of the forecast area.
Temperatures slowly cool through the period from Monday onward,
reaching seasonable levels by Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A coastal boundary lingers across the region as a warm front
approaches late tonight and Sunday. A cold front approaches from
the west late Sunday night.
Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions this afternoon in low ceilings
and drizzle much of the forecast period. Improvement likely
midday Sunday through Sunday afternoon as the warm front pushes
further north. How much improvement is still unknown but
conditions could go VFR for a time late in the day especially
inland. This improvement should be temporary before conditions
worsen again toward sunset.
Light S/SE to variable winds continue inland with coastal
terminals seeing increased SW winds to near 10 kt. Light SE to
variable winds expected tonight. On Sunday, coastal wind speeds
increase during the afternoon where gusts over 20kt are possible
late. Wind shear possible late in the TAF period but more
likely Sunday night.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
LIFR likely all day. Winds generally 5kt or less, with low
confidence in prevailing wind direction. Coastal terminals near
10 kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z Sunday: Improvement to IFR/MVFR with a slight chance for
showers in the morning.
Sunday night into Mon Morning: -RA/RA and IFR conds. Chance of LLWS.
S winds with gusts up to around 30kt.
Monday afternoon: Becoming VFR with W winds.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, likely MVFR late Tue/Tue Night in -RA.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower in -RA likely, improvement to VFR possible
late.
Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A marine dense fog advisory has been extended until at least
3 pm for prevailing 1 nm or less visibilities across primarily
the more southwestern coastal waters as a warm front washes out
just to the immediate west. A weak pressure gradient this
afternoon and tonight will lead to quiet conditions on the
waters with respect to wind and seas. Southerly winds start
picking up ahead of a low pressure system on Sunday. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are possible by late Sunday evening, but
confidence in timing is too low at this time to issue the
hazard.
A frontal system will move across the area waters Sunday night and
Monday, with SCA conditions returning Sunday night and Monday as
winds increase to near 25 kt and ocean waves build to 5-9 ft.,
building to 6 to 10 ft Monday morning. Sheltered waters may have
SCA conditions as well. Conditions fall below SCA levels on Tuesday
for most waters (the eastern ocean zone may not fall below 5 ft
during this time frame), however this may be short lived as another
frontal system approaches for Tuesday night and Wednesday, possibly
allowing for additional SCA conditions on the ocean.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There continues to be a widespread distribution in the NYHOPS /
Stevens TWL forecast, primarily for the western LI south shore bay
locations into the first half of next week. The cycles that are
garnering attention are the early Mon and Wed cycles driven by a new
moon phase into Monday. With the larger uncertainty overall a
widespread minor coastal flood benchmark approach is on the table,
with minor to moderate potential for some of the western LI south
shore bay locations, more so for the Mon AM cycle. The uncertainty
at this time centers around any wind wave contribution and how much
any southerly flow can mix down to the surface with a series of low
pressure systems that track nearby and just to the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ338-
345-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JE/JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT
TIDES/COASTAL
FLOODING...