652
FXUS61 KOKX 010538
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1238 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will lift north of the area this morning, tracking
across eastern New England Wednesday into Wednesday evening and
into eastern Canada late Wednesday night into Thursday. A cold
front moves through Friday night. Weak high pressure builds in
for the weekend. An area of low pressure passes to the south
early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Area of moderate to heavy rain across far eastern LI and SE CT
will continue to lift to the NE and out of the area the next 1-2
hours. With the negatively tilted upper trough lifting across
the area, a spotty shower is still possible, mainly north and
west of NYC. In addition, low clouds and patchy fog will follow
as winds go light and variable for time before becoming W/SW.
Temps will remain well above seasonable in the 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Deep troughing continues across the northeast US thru the period,
with lead shortwave sliding east Wed AM, and trailing shortwave
approaching Wed aft and crossing Wed eve. At the surface,
coastal low pressure departs up the New England coast on Wed,
with secondary cold front crossing the region Wed aft.
The pressure gradient tightens in the wake of the deepening and
departing low Wed AM. W winds should pick up beginning Wed AM,
with strongest winds in wake of cold front/trough Wed aft/eve
with 20 to 30 gusts 45 to 55 mph. Gradient remains strong
overnight, with winds 45-50 kt at top of mixed layer, but with
lapse rates weakening a bit overnight, peak wind gusts will
likely remain capped at 45 to 50 mph into Thu AM. Pressure
gradient appears to remain tight into Thu aft as low pressure
deepens over northern Maine/new Brunswick, with winds at top of
mixed layer 45-50 kt in a steeper mixing profile. This should
support resurgence of westerly 45-55 mph wind gust threat into
the afternoon. Wind advisory to address hazard for Wed aft into
Thu eve.
Considerable cloud cover in cyclonic flow, with scattered rain
shower likely Wed aft/eve with shortwave/cold frontal passage. With
cold advection behind front, a few snow showers possible at tail
end across interior, particularly higher elevations.
Mild conditions on Wed with nearly stationary highs in the upper
40s/lower 50s giving way to cold advection late Wed aft into
into Thu. Low temps in the lower/mid 30s Wed night, and high
temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s on Thu. Windchills in the 20s
Wed Night thru Thu.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key points include cold/blustery/mainly dry conditions until
potentially early next week, with chances of snow. Uncertainty is
high for early next week with resulting wide ranges of snowfall
forecasts. Temperatures forecast to become more below normal through
the weekend. The gusty winds will make it feel about ten degrees
colder than the actual temperatures regarding the forecast high
temperatures.
Mid level quasi-zonal flow Thursday night into Friday. A longwave
trough moves over the Eastern Seaboard late Friday, with the trough
axis moving offshore late Friday night. A surface cold front is
expected to move through Friday night. However, it looks to do so
mainly dry. Thereafter, weak high pressure builds in at the surface
as the trough departs for the remainder of the weekend, keeping the
area dry. A southern stream trough approaches Sunday night with a
weak area of low pressure from the central or south central US
(given some uncertainty), and passes south of the area Monday night
into Tuesday. Current model consensus it to take this low south of
the area late Monday into Monday night. The area could see some snow
on the northern fringes of this system, but there is still a great
deal of uncertainty this far out, and stuck pretty close to the NBM.
Temperatures should average below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Low pressure over the area early this morning will lift out to
the NE, gradually deepening across New England today.
As winds lighten briefly, expect widespread MVFR/IFR to develop
across the area. Conditions then gradually begin to improve
during the day.
Wind direction will vary significantly between 06-12Z as low
pressure passes overhead. Winds then return out of the WSW
later this morning and increase in speed through the day, with
gusts increasing from 20-25 kt in the late morning and early
afternoon, to 35 to 40 kt toward 00Z Thursday. KGON may not see
the highest gusts until after 00Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are likely with the timing of category changes
through the day. Wind direction will become highly variable
overnight as low pressure moves across the area.
Timing and onset of strongest gusts on Wednesday will likely
vary by 1-2 hours. MVFR ceilings may linger through the day
with a chance of SHRA.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Late Wednesday Night trough Thursday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt
with occasional gusts up to 40 kt. Gusts decrease Thursday
night.
Friday through Sunday: Mainly VFR. W winds G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
As low pressure approaches tonight, expect SE-S gusts to 25-30 kt
developing on the ocean this evening and then translating eastward
across southern bays and eastern LI Sound. A few gusts up to 35 kt
may be possible on the eastern ocean waters, but appears too
inverted for any more than brief and infrequent.
Winds should subside below SCA briefly on all waters late tonight in
wake of developing low pressure. Westerly winds then quickly
increasing thru SCA to Gale Wed AM into early afternoon for the
ocean waters, and then all waters Wed aft. Sustained W winds
25-35 kt and gusts 40-45 kt expected to continue into Thu eve,
before gradually diminishing to SCA Thu night. Gales should
linger on most of the waters Thu evening.
Widespread SCA cond expected late Thursday night through much of
Friday for all waters. Winds diminish Friday night, but remain
above 25 kt on the ocean, while non-ocean waters fall below
25 kt. An extended period of SCA for the weekend as gusts are
forecast to be 25 to 30 kt for most of the waters and seas on
the ocean build to 5 to 7 ft through Saturday night, slowly
diminishing on Sunday
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall rates of 1/4 to 1/2" likely with heaviest precip, briefly
3/4-1" with any heavier convection this evening. Basin-wide
rainfall totals of 1/2 to 3/4", with locally 1 1/2" possible
if/where there is more persistent heavy rain shower/tstm
banding. Most of this falls in a 3 to 4 hr time period, which
may cause some minor urban and poor drainage flood issues.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Per bias corrected ETSS/ESTOFS and NYHOPS central forecast blend,
water levels may touch minor flood thresholds along the south shore
bays of LI (including eastern Great South Bay, Moriches Bay,
and Shinnecock Bay), Jamaica Bay and along the most vulnerable
portions along NY Harbor with the Wed AM high tide. Statement
issued to address this.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Thursday
for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Thursday
for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Thursday
for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Thursday
for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for
ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...