781
FXUS61 KOKX 010953
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
453 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure strengthens as it moves northeast of the region
towards Maine tonight and then into Canadian Maritimes by
Thursday. The low then retrogrades west into Southeast Canada
Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, across the local area,
weak high pressure will start to build in Thursday through
Thursday night before another frontal system approaches from the
west for late Friday. An associated cold front moves through
Friday night. Weak high pressure builds in for the weekend. An
area of low pressure passes to the south early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The main hazard and weather story for today will be the strong
winds expected to develop late this afternoon for the entire
region. A wind advisory remains in effect starting 3PM this
afternoon with gusts up to 50 mph forecast for the entire region.
Low pressure moves northeast and deepens through today. Pressure
gradient tightens rapidly this afternoon when the low deepens
more.
This will bring more cold air advection and very windy
conditions to the region. Westerly flow will make for drier low
levels. Model BUFKIT data shows potential for higher winds to
mix down late this afternoon than forecast. These would be gusts
developing from mixing down winds from the top of the mixed
layer. Most gusts expected to be within 40 to 50 mph but some
localized gusts up to 55 mph will be possible late this
afternoon.
Due to some disturbance activity aloft with vorticity maxima
and to the west of the deepening surface low, there will be
additional lift and higher chances of showers, some of which
could be snow showers across parts of the interior. The
timeframe for this would be late afternoon into early evening.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The main hazard and weather story is again the strong winds
tonight through much of Thursday evening. The wind advisory
remains in effect for the entire area until 10PM Thursday
evening for forecast of wind gusts up to 50 mph.
There may still be some lingering shower activity to start this
evening across northern parts of the region with otherwise dry
conditions. Dry conditions return for the entire local forecast
area overnight and remain dry through Friday.
850mb temperatures from forecast models continue to show a
declining trend for this short term time period. Likewise, high
temperatures are forecast to get progressively cooler looking at
Thursday and Friday compared to Wednesday.
Very steep pressure gradient remains for the region tonight
through Thursday evening. For this evening and with daytime
mixing Thursday, more peak gusts near 45 to 50 mph are expected.
Again, some locally higher gusts up to 55 mph are possible at
times. Then more of a decrease of this pressure gradient is
forecast as low pressure fills in slightly and weak high
pressure builds in from the west for Thursday night into Friday.
This will allow for winds to trend downward with time Thursday
night into Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key points include cold/blustery/mainly dry conditions until
potentially early next week, with chances of snow. Uncertainty is
high for early next week with resulting wide ranges of snowfall
forecasts. Temperatures forecast to become more below normal through
the weekend. The gusty winds will make it feel about ten degrees
colder than the actual temperatures regarding the forecast high
temperatures.
A longwave trough moves over the Eastern Seaboard late Friday,
with the trough axis moving offshore late Friday night. A
surface cold front is expected to move through Friday night.
However, it looks to do so mainly dry. Thereafter, weak high
pressure builds in at the surface as the trough departs for the
remainder of the weekend, keeping the area dry. A southern
stream trough approaches Sunday night with a weak area of low
pressure from the central or south central US (given some
uncertainty), and passes south of the area Monday night into
Tuesday. Current model consensus it to take this low south of
the area late Monday into Monday night. The area could see some
snow on the northern fringes of this system, but there is still
a great deal of uncertainty this far out, and stuck pretty close
to the NBM.
Temperatures should average below normal through the period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure over the area early this morning will lift out to the
NE, gradually deepening across New England today and tonight.
Seeing widespread MVFR and local IFR cond, which will be slow to
improve through the day.
With the low over the area, wind direction is variable, and more
out of the SW-WSW across NYC metro and Long Island, S-SE along the
CT coast, and light/vrb inland. Winds should settle in out of the
WSW-W later this morning and increase in speed through the day, with
gusts increasing from 20-25 kt in the late morning and early
afternoon, to 35-40 kt toward 00Z Thu. KGON may not see the highest
gusts until after 00Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
AMD still possible for any changes in flight cat or wind deviating
from forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Late tonight through Thursday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt with occasional
G40kt. Gusts decrease Thu night.
Friday through Sunday: Mainly VFR. W winds G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
The main story for the marine forecast will be the increasingly
rough conditions expected as winds and seas increase in response
to increasing pressure gradient with strengthening low pressure
late today through Thursday going into the Canadian Maritimes.
With conditions below SCA thresholds, cancelled the SCA for all
marine zones but the ocean where SCA level seas are currently
present. The SCA for the ocean will quickly transition to the
gale warning this morning at 6AM. The non-ocean waters have
their gale warning go into effect late this morning at 11AM.
This was pushed up a few hours compared to previous forecast
after noting some model BUFKIT soundings showed rapid increases
of winds this morning. The gale warning for all waters goes
until 10 PM Thursday evening and then for the ocean goes until
1AM Friday. Thereafter, expecting widespread SCA conditions with
gusts closer to 30 kt for the rest of Thursday night and for
Friday.
Winds diminish Friday night, but remain above 25 kt on the
ocean, while non-ocean waters fall below 25 kt. An extended
period of SCA for the weekend as gusts are forecast to be 25 to
30 kt for most of the waters and seas on the ocean build to 5 to
7 ft through Saturday night, slowly diminishing on Sunday-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Any precipitation, liquid equivalent, expected to stay under a
tenth of an inch in the short term through Friday.
Overall, no significant hydrologic issues are anticipated.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Per bias corrected ETSS/ESTOFS and NYHOPS central forecast blend,
water levels may touch minor flood thresholds along the south shore
bays of LI (including eastern Great South Bay, Moriches Bay,
and Shinnecock Bay), Jamaica Bay and along the most vulnerable
portions along NY Harbor with the Wed AM high tide. Statement
issued to address this.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Thursday
for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Thursday
for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Thursday
for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...