861
FXUS61 KOKX 011743
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1243 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure strengthens as it moves northeast of the region
towards Maine tonight and then into Canadian Maritimes by
Thursday. The low then retrogrades west into Southeast Canada
Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, across the local area,
weak high pressure will start to build in Thursday through
Thursday night before another frontal system approaches from the
west for late Friday. An associated cold front moves through
Friday night. Weak high pressure builds in for the weekend. An
area of low pressure passes to the south early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*Wind advisory remains in effect starting 3PM this afternoon for
westerly wind gusts 45 to 50 mph, isolated 55mph.
Low pressure moves northeast and deepens through today, with
with a cold frontal passage late this afternoon.
Westerly Winds gradually increase through the morning into
early afternoon as pressure gradient tighten behind departing
low. Strong westerly winds expected to develop late this
afternoon into evening in wake of shortwave/cold frontal
passage with strengthening boundary layer winds, deepening of
lapse rates and momentum transfer and shot of cold advection.
BUFKIT data indicating winds at top of mixed later strengthening
to 45-50kt, and with above factors, indicating potential for
widespread 20-30g40-50mph, with some localized gusts up to 55
mph late this afternoon thru evening.
In addition, deep cyclonic flow and approaching shortwave and
cold front this afternoon, will result in abundant diurnal
cloud cover and enhanced lift for scattered to numerous showers
this afternoon into early evening. Highest likelihood of
showers across the interior. Thermal profiles across interior,
particularly for elevations above 500 ft appear supportive for
snow to mix in with rain shower activity, or briefly changeover
early this evening, before tapering off. A dusting of snow
accumulation possible for highest elevations (above 500 ft)
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*The wind advisory remains in effect for the entire area until
10PM Thursday evening for westerly wind gusts 45 to 50 mph,
isolated 55mph.
There may still be some lingering shower activity to start this
evening across northern parts of the region with otherwise dry
conditions. Dry conditions return for the entire local forecast
area overnight and remain dry through Friday.
850mb temperatures from forecast models continue to show a
declining trend for this short term time period. Likewise, high
temperatures are forecast to get progressively cooler looking at
Thursday and Friday compared to Wednesday.
Very steep pressure gradient remains for the region tonight
through Thursday evening. For this evening and with daytime
mixing Thursday, more peak gusts near 45 to 50 mph are expected.
Again, some locally higher gusts up to 55 mph are possible at
times. Then more of a decrease of this pressure gradient is
forecast as low pressure fills in slightly and weak high
pressure builds in from the west for Thursday night into Friday.
This will allow for winds to trend downward with time Thursday
night into Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key points include cold/blustery/mainly dry conditions until
potentially early next week, with chances of snow. Uncertainty is
high for early next week with resulting wide ranges of snowfall
forecasts. Temperatures forecast to become more below normal through
the weekend. The gusty winds will make it feel about ten degrees
colder than the actual temperatures regarding the forecast high
temperatures.
A longwave trough moves over the Eastern Seaboard late Friday,
with the trough axis moving offshore late Friday night. A
surface cold front is expected to move through Friday night.
However, it looks to do so mainly dry. Thereafter, weak high
pressure builds in at the surface as the trough departs for the
remainder of the weekend, keeping the area dry. A southern
stream trough approaches Sunday night with a weak area of low
pressure from the central or south central US (given some
uncertainty), and passes south of the area Monday night into
Tuesday. Current model consensus it to take this low south of
the area late Monday into Monday night. The area could see some
snow on the northern fringes of this system, but there is still
a great deal of uncertainty this far out, and stuck pretty close
to the NBM.
Temperatures should average below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure slowly tracks into New Brunswick Canada late tonight
and Thu.
MVFR cigs should prevail until a secondary cold fropa late this
afternoon. Timing is approximately 20Z KSWF, 21Z NYC
metros/KHPN, 22Z KBDR/KISP, 23Z KGON.
After the fropa, cigs should lift to VFR and W winds increase
to 15-25G30-35kt with some gusts 35-40 kt. These winds should
diminish after the evening push to 15-20G25-30kt while VFR cigs
scatter out at most terminals. Winds increase again aft 12-13Z
Thu.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
AMD possible for varying cigs thru 21Z. G40kt possible from
about 21Z-05Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Aftn: VFR. W winds G25-35kt with occasional G40kt.
Thursday Night: VFR with diminishing winds.
Friday through Sunday: Mainly VFR. W winds G20-25kt.
Monday: VFR likely.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The main story for the marine forecast will be the increasingly
rough conditions expected as winds and seas increase in response
to increasing pressure gradient with strengthening low pressure
late today through Thursday going into the Canadian Maritimes.
Developing SCA conditions this morning will quickly deteriorate
to gale conditions this afternoon across the ocean waters and
then all water from early to mid afternoon. Gale conditions
continuing through Thursday evening, before decreasing to SCA
conditions with gusts closer to 30 kt for the rest of Thursday
night and for Friday. Ocean seas will build to 7 to 12 ft on
westerly gales, and 4 to 7 ft on central and eastern LI Sound.
Winds diminish Friday night, but remain above 25 kt on the
ocean, while non-ocean waters fall below 25 kt. An extended
period of SCA for the weekend as gusts are forecast to be 25 to
30 kt for most of the waters and seas on the ocean build to 5 to
7 ft through Saturday night, slowly diminishing on Sunday
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Any precipitation, liquid equivalent, expected to stay under a
tenth of an inch in the short term through Friday.
Overall, no significant hydrologic issues are anticipated.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may approach or touch minor flood thresholds in the
most vulnerable locations along the south shore bays of Long Island,
Jamaica Bay and parts of NY Harbor with the Wed AM high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMC/BG
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...