277
FXUS61 KOKX 020054
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
754 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to strengthen as it moves northeast
towards and then into Canadian Maritimes through tonight. The low
then retrogrades west into Southeast Canada Thursday into Friday.
Meanwhile, weak high pressure will slides well to the southwest of
the region Thursday into Friday with a polar front moving through
Friday night. Weak high pressure builds in for the weekend. An area
of low pressure passes to the south early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
*Wind Advisory remains in effect for westerly wind gusts 45 to
50 mph (isolated gusts to 55mph this evening.)
Deep longwave troughing continues across the NE US, with axis
of developing closed low pivoting through the region this
evening. At the surface, low pressure will continue to
strengthen as it moves northeast up the Maine coast tonight with
a cold front moving east of the region early this evening.
Strong westerly winds ramp up into early this evening in wake
of shortwave/cold frontal passage with strengthening boundary
layer winds, deepening of lapse rates and momentum transfer and
shot of cold advection. BUFKIT data indicating winds at top of
mixed later strengthening to 45-50kt, and with above factors,
indicating potential for widespread westerly winds
20-30g40-50mph, with some localized gusts up to 55 mph into this
evening. Weakening lapse rates and caa after midnight indicate
that winds will likely diminish a bit overnight, likely
averaging 15-25g35-45mph.
Deep cyclonic flow and traversing shortwave and cold front will
continue to translate enhanced lift for scattered to numerous
showers eastward into early evening. Thermal profiles across
interior, particularly for elevations above 500 ft appear
supportive for rain shower activity to mix with snow, or briefly
changeover to snow showers early this evening, before tapering
off. A dusting of snow accumulation possible for highest
elevations (especially above 750 ft). Plain rain showers
elsewhere, with perhaps a few wet flakes mixing in before
ending.
Otherwise drying conditions from w to e later this evening in
wake of shortwave/cold front. Despite gradual cold advection,
mixed low-levels and scattered to bkn cloud cover should keep
temps near to slightly above seasonable levels (Upper 20s to
lower 30s).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
*Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire area until 10 PM
Thursday evening for westerly wind gusts 45 to 50 mph, isolated
gusts to 55mph.
Deep longwave troughing continues across the NE US, centered by
a deepening closed low retrograding NW from the Canadian
Maritimes into Quebec. A weak northern stream shortwave pivots
around the base of the longwave trough towards the region late
Friday and then through the region Friday Night.
At the surface, strong low pressure retrogrades NW through
southeast Canada Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, weak high
pressure slides well to the southwest of the region, with a
polar front approaching late Friday.
Pressure gradient remains tight thru the day Thursday, with
winds at top of mixed layer 45-50 kt in a diurnally steepened
mixing profile. This should support resurgence of westerly winds
20-30g40-50 mph areawide, with isolated gusts to 55 mph. Winds
should gradually decrease Thu Night as pressure gradient
weakens, but W winds 15-20G25-35mph likely through at least the
first half of Friday. Winds should subside a bit Fri aft/early
eve, before a resurgence to similar speeds from the NW winds
Friday Night with shot of CAA and strengthened pressure
gradient.
Otherwise, continued cyclonic flow with weak vorts moving
through, will develop diurnal scattered to broken strato-cu
development across the area Thursday. Cloud cover should scatter
Thursday Night into Fri AM, with increasing cloud cover Fri
afternoon ahead of next approaching shortwave and polar front.
Deep westerly flow will keep conditions dry, but a few flurries
possible late Friday/Friday eve with shortwave/frontal passage.
Continued gradual CAA through the period should have highs near
seasonable on Thursday and a few degrees below seasonable Friday.
Near seasonable temps Thu Night with mixed low-levels, and a few
degrees below seasonable Friday Night with shot of polar air
working in.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key points include cold/blustery/mainly dry conditions until
potentially early next week, with chances of snow.
Weak high pressure builds in at the surface as an upper level trough
departs for the weekend, keeping the area dry. A southern stream
trough approaches Sunday night with a weak area of low pressure from
the central or south central US (given some uncertainty), and passes
south of the area Monday night into Tuesday. Current model consensus
is to take this low south of the area late Monday into Monday night,
and this trend continues with today`s model runs. The area could see
some light snow on the northern fringes of this system, but there is
still a great deal of uncertainty this far out, and stuck pretty
close to the NBM.
A persistent WNW to NW flow during this time frame will mean
temperatures are expected average below normal through the period,
not rising above the 30s for high temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure slowly tracks into New Brunswick Canada late tonight
and Thursday.
Mainly VFR thru the TAF period, although MVFR could linger at
times into this evening across northern terminals.
W winds 15-25G30-35kt with some gusts 35-40 kt. These winds should
diminish after the evening push to 15-20G25-30kt. Winds increase
again after 12-13Z Thursday back up to 35 to 40 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
G40kt possible thru 05Z and then again Thursday.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Night: VFR with diminishing winds.
Friday through Sunday: Mainly VFR. W winds G20-25kt.
Monday: VFR likely with chance MVFR in snow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Gale conditions this afternoon across the ocean waters and then all
water from early to mid afternoon. Gale conditions continuing
through Thursday evening. Ocean seas will build to 7 to 12 ft on
westerly gales, and 4 to 7 ft on central and eastern LI Sound.
Winds expected to decrease to SCA Thursday night into Friday AM.
Winds may briefly fall below SCA Fri aft, before another shot
of CAA in wake of polar front Friday Night likely brings conds
back up to SCA for all waters.
An extended period of SCA for the weekend as gusts are forecast to
be 25 to 30 kt for most of the waters and seas on the ocean build to
5 to 7 ft through Saturday night, slowly diminishing on Sunday. All
ocean waters fall below 5 ft by late Sunday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues are anticipated into the
beginning of next weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may approach 1.5 to 2 ft below MLLW across western
portions of NY Harbor, W LI Sound, and the southern and eastern
bays of LI during Thu aft low tide, which could cause some
localized low water issue for moored boats and shallow water
navigation.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...JT/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...