523
FXUS61 KOKX 022025
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
325 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure spins over eastern Quebec through Friday. A weak low
passes south of the area Friday night. Deepening low pressure
continues to move away from the region Saturday as weak high
pressure builds in from the west through Sunday. Low pressure
passes to the south Sunday night through Monday. Strong Canadian
high pressure builds to the west Monday night into the middle
of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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The area remains in windy nwly flow tngt with low pres over QC and
high pres over the Southeast. With winds aloft weakening per the
modeling, and mixing decreasing by this eve, the wind advy has been
canceled. Still windy, but gusts generally expected to remain
in the 35-45 mph range, just blw criteria.
Overperforming sprinkles and flurries continue to rotate sewd
per radar late this aftn. Will continue to keep them in the fcst
thru 00Z, with slightly veering winds and loss of llvl
instability inhibiting the potential thereafter.
With the breezy conditions overnight, the NBM seemed reasonable
for temps attm. If the winds go calm even briefly early Fri
mrng, some of the outlying areas would drop several degrees
colder than fcst.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The flow veers to the w on Fri, so lake moisture should stay n of
the cwa thru the day. Breezy with unidirectional well mixed flow,
but winds aloft only around 30kt at h85 so peak gusts around 25kt
expected attm.
Upr lvl trof axis comes thru Fri ngt. The models suggest a weak low
spinup and a shield of lgt pcpn with the sys. Have some pops over
the ocean, but the consensus right now is to keep any light
snow s of the cwa. If the sys trends n, there could be some lgt
snow or flurries, particularly srn areas, Fri ngt.
Went with the NBM with local adjustments for temps Fri and Fri
ngt.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Key Points:
* Light snow possible late Sunday night through Monday as low
pressure passes to the south.
* Seasonably cold with a persistent NW flow through the period.
A nearly blocked upper flow persists Saturday into the middle of
next week with low pressure over eastern Canada and into the
northeastern United States. A seasonably cold airmass will remain in
place Saturday into Monday with temperatures near 5 degrees below
normal. A shortwave moving through the southern branch will develop
surface low pressure over the southern plains, that tracks through
the mid Atlantic region, passing to the south late Sunday night
through Monday. With a cold airmass in place a light snowfall is
possible across the forecast area, with the most snow falling across
the southern areas, across the NYC metro and Long Island. With the
low passing to the south followed the NBM probabilities with a
chance of light snow. The cold airmass is reinforced as the low
tracks east and Canadian high pressure builds to the west as the
blocking pattern persists. Tuesday into Thursday temperatures will
be near 10 degrees below normal. No record high and/or lows are
forecast to be set through the extended period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The region remains between low pressure to the north and east
and high pressure to the south and west.
VFR. W flow 15-25kt with frequent gusts 25-35kt. Winds
gradually diminish after 23Z-00Z but remain gusty.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts 35-40kt before 00z this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday PM: VFR. W gusts 20-25kt.
Saturday: VFR. WNW gusts 25-35kt.
Sunday: VFR. W gusts 20-25kt.
Monday: Chance of light snow. MVFR cond likely, IFR possible at
the NYC metros/KISP.
Tuesday: VFR. WNW gusts 25-35kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Low water advisories remain in effect for the low tide cycle late
today into this evening. Blended TWL guidance suggests abnormally
low water levels of 2 to 2.5 ft below MLLW along parts of NY Harbor
and the western Sound. This could cause issues for moored boats and
shallow water navigation.
A gale wrng remains in effect for all waters tngt, with winds
gradually subsiding blw gale by sunrise Fri. Small crafts will be
needed aft the gales thru Fri ngt for all waters with residual
high seas and gusty winds.
Small craft advisory level wind gusts are possible across all the
forecast waters Saturday through Sunday, with SCA ocean seas, with
a strong and gusty west to northwest flow behind offshore deepening
low pressure that tracks into the Canadian Maritime Saturday night.
The New York Harbor will be more marginal, or below SCA gusts during
Sunday. By early Sunday night conditions will be below advisory
levels on the non ocean waters as weak high pressure builds into the
area. And, by late Sunday night even the ocean waters will fall
below advisory levels. Monday tranquil conditions will continue as a
rather quick moving low passes to the south of Long Island. Then
with the low deepening Monday night northerly winds gusts are
expected to develop across all the forecast waters, and continue
into Tuesday. There is the potential for gusts across the ocean
waters to be near gale force, especially east of Fire Island Inlet,
late Tuesday into Tuesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No significant hydrologic issues anticipated thru the middle of
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ331-335-340-345.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ332-350-353.
Low Water Advisory from 7 PM to 9 PM EST this evening for
ANZ335.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ338.
Low Water Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ338.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET