500
FXUS61 KOKX 030233
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
933 PM EST Thu Jan 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure spins over eastern Quebec through Friday. A weak
low passes south of the area Friday night. Deepening low
pressure continues to move away from the region Saturday as weak
high pressure builds in from the west through Sunday. Low
pressure passes to the south Sunday night through Monday. Strong
Canadian high pressure builds to the west Monday night into the
middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The area remains in windy nwly flow tngt with low pres over QC and
high pres over the Southeast. Remaining windy, but gusts
generally expected to remain in the 35-45 mph range, just blw
criteria.
Flurries continue to rotate sewd per radar, with a dusting
possible in a few locations, especially higher terrain of the
Lower Hudson Valley. Area will weaken with slightly veering
winds and loss of llvl instability inhibiting the potential
later this evening.
With the breezy conditions overnight, the NBM seemed reasonable
for temps attm. If the winds go calm even briefly early Fri
mrng, some of the outlying areas would drop several degrees
colder than fcst.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The flow veers to the w on Fri, so lake moisture should stay n
of the cwa thru the day. Breezy with unidirectional well mixed
flow, but winds aloft only around 30kt at h85 so peak gusts
around 25kt expected attm.
Upr lvl trof axis comes thru Fri ngt. The models suggest a weak low
spinup and a shield of lgt pcpn with the sys. Have some pops over
the ocean, but the consensus right now is to keep any light
snow s of the cwa. If the sys trends n, there could be some lgt
snow or flurries, particularly srn areas, Fri ngt.
Went with the NBM with local adjustments for temps Fri and Fri
ngt.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:
* Light snow possible late Sunday night through Monday as low
pressure passes to the south.
* Seasonably cold with a persistent NW flow through the period.
A nearly blocked upper flow persists Saturday into the middle of
next week with low pressure over eastern Canada and into the
northeastern United States. A seasonably cold airmass will remain in
place Saturday into Monday with temperatures near 5 degrees below
normal. A shortwave moving through the southern branch will develop
surface low pressure over the southern plains, that tracks through
the mid Atlantic region, passing to the south late Sunday night
through Monday. With a cold airmass in place a light snowfall is
possible across the forecast area, with the most snow falling across
the southern areas, across the NYC metro and Long Island. With the
low passing to the south followed the NBM probabilities with a
chance of light snow. The cold airmass is reinforced as the low
tracks east and Canadian high pressure builds to the west as the
blocking pattern persists. Tuesday into Thursday temperatures will
be near 10 degrees below normal. No record high and/or lows are
forecast to be set through the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will remain to the north over Southeastern Canada
through the TAF period. A weak low moves quickly to the south late
Friday and quickly off the coast Friday night.
VFR prevails through the TAF period. Brief -SHSN remains possible
for a few more hours for KSWF and this was handled with TEMPO group
up until 06z. W flow continues with gusts lower, but continuing
through the night at the city terminals, with the exception being a
few outlying terminals where gusts end briefly. W winds continue
Friday with gusts at around 20 kt. Gusts should end towards or just
before 0z Sat.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: VFR. W to NW winds.
Saturday: VFR. WNW gusts 25-35kt.
Sunday: VFR. W gusts 20-25kt.
Monday: Chance of light snow. MVFR cond likely, IFR possible at the
NYC metros/KISP.
Tuesday: VFR. WNW gusts 25-35kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A low water advisory remain in effect for the low tide cycle
this evening across Western Long Island Sound. Blended TWL
guidance suggests abnormally low water levels of 2 to 2.5 ft
below MLLW along parts of the Western Sound. This could cause
issues for moored boats and shallow water navigation.
A gale wrng remains in effect for all waters tngt, with winds
gradually subsiding blw gale by sunrise Fri. Small crafts will be
needed aft the gales thru Fri ngt for all waters with residual
high seas and gusty winds.
Small craft advisory level wind gusts are possible across all the
forecast waters Saturday through Sunday, with SCA ocean seas, with
a strong and gusty west to northwest flow behind offshore deepening
low pressure that tracks into the Canadian Maritime Saturday night.
The New York Harbor will be more marginal, or below SCA gusts during
Sunday. By early Sunday night conditions will be below advisory
levels on the non ocean waters as weak high pressure builds into the
area. And, by late Sunday night even the ocean waters will fall
below advisory levels. Monday tranquil conditions will continue as a
rather quick moving low passes to the south of Long Island. Then
with the low deepening Monday night northerly winds gusts are
expected to develop across all the forecast waters, and continue
into Tuesday. There is the potential for gusts across the ocean
waters to be near gale force, especially east of Fire Island Inlet,
late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues anticipated thru the middle of
next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ331-335-340-345.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ332-350-353.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ338.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET