238
FXUS61 KOKX 031201
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
701 AM EST Fri Jan 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continue to retrograde into SE Canada today.
Meanwhile another low develops well south of the region today
and moves well offshore tonight. High pressure will remain south
and west of the region with low pressure north of the region
going into this weekend. Low pressure passes through the Mid
Atlantic on Monday and offshore Monday night. Behind it, strong
Canadian high pressure builds in from the west through mid next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Numerical weather prediction models depiction of mid levels
show a trough developing and approaching the local area.

Echoes of reflectivity on Doppler radar have decreased over the
last few hours. Some morning snow flurries possible for parts of
the interior. Otherwise, just some minor changes with respect to
cloud coverage with forecast overall on track.

This next area of low pressure developing well south of the
region will have much of its associated precipitation stay
south of the forecast region. Northern fringe of precipitation
could possibly briefly enter southernmost parts of the region
late today in the form of light snow.

Otherwise, mainly dry conditions with temperatures getting
colder compared to the previous day with cold air advection.
Daytime mixing will achieve high temperatures mainly in the mid
to upper 30s. Some 40 degree high temperatures are forecast
along the coast.

Gusty winds remain but will be more in the 25 to 35 mph range.
This will make for temperatures to actually feel like freezing
or slightly below freezing for maximum wind chills.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
In the mid levels, the region remains in between cutoff low in
SE Canada and ridging well to the south and west. WNW mid level
flow increases over the weekend with a tightening height
gradient.

The low pressure develops well southeast and offshore. Again,
northern fringe of precipitation get close to Long Island but
only chances of snow are south of Long Island within the
forecast marine zones with higher chances farther to the south.

Otherwise, winds slightly subside but still stay up enough to
keep a mixed boundary layer. Gusts do not completely go away
tonight with gusts still frequent along coast. Lows forecast
are in the 20s but minimum wind chills will be near the 10 to 15
degree range.

For the weekend, the core of high pressure remains well to the
south and west, keeping a tight enough pressure gradient to
maintain gusty winds. Expecting mainly dry conditions for much
of the weekend. NW winds continue and advect in even colder air.
Highs forecast on Saturday and Sunday are only in the low to
mid 30s. Wind chills both days will be at most mainly within the
20s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key Points:

* Light snowfall possible Monday as low pressure passes to the south.

* Temperatures remain below normal through much of next week
  with persistent NW flow.

An active start to the period as low pressure tracks from the
Mississippi River Valley this weekend through the Mid Atlantic on
Monday, introducing chances for precipitation locally. Timing of any
precip looks to be during the day on Monday, tapering Monday night.
Given the cold air mass in place, ptype would likely be all snow.
The question becomes how much moisture will make it this far north.
Some guidance, like the 00Z GEFS, offers a wetter, more amplified
solution that brings the FGEN axis into the region. On the other
hand, the EPS and GEPS members largely keep the bulk of the
accumulating snowfall just to the south with a flatter wave. These
differences will need to be resolved and are key in determining
ultimately where the snowfall occurs. NBM probabilities of at least
1 inch of snow have been creeping up with each run, now about 50%
for NYC and surrounding areas. Lessening chances, though not zero,
for accumulating snow going north into the LoHud Valley and southern
CT, but trends will need to be monitored closely.

All to say, a light snowfall is possible for at least portions of
the area on Monday. If the more amplified northern solution proves
valid, winter headlines *could* eventually be needed for the
southern half of the CWA.

Conditions dry out Tuesday as the low moves offshore, and a nearly
blocked upper flow persists through at least mid next week with
sprawling low pressure centered over far eastern Canada. Behind the
system, Canadian high pressure drops south into the Plains and
builds in, reinforcing the cold air mass and maintaining a tight
pressure gradient that will keep winds blustery. Temperatures look
to run up to 10 degrees below normal through the period, with
afternoon highs near freezing, and morning lows in the teens and
20s. Wind chills likely in the single digits at times given the flow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A quick moving low passes to the south and offshore late today into
tonight, while a sprawling area of low pressure remains centered to
the north of the region through the TAF period.

VFR. W flow persists today with speeds generally 10 to 15 kt and
gusts 20 to 25 kt. Frequent gusts briefly subside this evening,
before returning toward 6Z Sat as the flow goes NW. Speeds
increase with gusts up to 30 kt much of Saturday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated gusts to 35 kt on Saturday.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late tonight: VFR. NW winds increase late.

Saturday: VFR. NW gusts 25-35kt.

Sunday: VFR. W gusts 20-25kt.

Monday: MVFR cond likely with snow possible. IFR at NYC metros/KISP
possible.

Tuesday: VFR. WNW gusts 25-35kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA conditions are in place for all the forecast waters. SCA
for non-ocean zones goes until 4pm this afternoon with ocean
zones having SCA until 7am Sunday. SCA on the ocean may very
well need to get extended through the day Sunday. Non-ocean
waters will have a lull in wind gusts tonight but for those
zones, SCA conditions will probably return overnight tonight and
into the weekend.

SCA conditions may briefly abate on the ocean Sunday night and
Monday, before returning Monday night or early Tuesday as NW flow
increases and seas once again build over 5 ft. SCA conditions then
appear likely on all waters Tuesday through midweek, with persistent
wind gusts above 25 kt. There is also potential for gusts across the
ocean waters to be near gale force, especially east of Fire Island
Inlet, late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues anticipated through the middle
of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR