842
FXUS61 KOKX 051749
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1249 PM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The region will be in between low pressure to the northeast and high
pressure to the southwest. A quick moving low will pass through the
Mid Atlantic region on Monday and offshore Monday night. High
pressure then slowly builds in from the west through Friday. An
area of low pressure may pass nearby next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry, but breezy today with a fairly tight pressure gradient
remaining over the area. Winds will diminish more noticeably tonight
as a weakening surface ridge axis approaches from the west. Partly
to mostly sunny during the day, then clouds increase tonight in
association with low pressure well off to our southwest. There
may be more clouds this morning than previously forecast across
the Lower Hudson Valley as stratocu streams down from the
northwest. Have adjusted forecast for the next few hours to
better match satellite and obs. It should remain dry through the
night with an outside shot of a flurry or light snow sneaking
into the extreme SW portion of the forecast area towards
daybreak. NBM with minor local adjustments was used for
temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Models and ensembles remain in very good agreement regarding low
pressure which will be passing to our south Monday into Monday
night. A trough axis aloft with an embedded shortwave will shift
east through the OH and TN Valleys. This will strengthen a surface
low which will emerge off the NC coast late in the day Monday into
Monday evening and shift ENE through the night with the trough not
becoming negatively tilted until the overnight hours. This
progressive motion will help keep the heaviest snowfall to our
south, with the northern edge of snowfall likely somewhere over the
Tri-State area. Liquid equivalent precip and snow amount forecasts
are very close to the previous couple of forecasts. Very little to
no accumulation north of the city, and under an inch just about
everywhere else. Best chance of topping an inch will be in the far SW
corner of the forecast area. Period of when snow will be most likely
is mid-late Monday morning through late afternoon.
Winds pick up in the wake of the low Monday night and increase
further on Tuesday as high pressure very slowly builds in from the
NW. Wind chills late Monday night falling into the single digits for
coastal areas and around zero for the northernmost zones. A gusty NW
flow continues through Tuesday with gusts 25-35 mph. Dry, but colder
than normal temperatures with highs only in the upper 20s to lower
30s. Wind chills Tuesday night falling into the single digits for
most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
* Cold and windy mid to late next week, daytime wind chills in the
teens for most.
* Next chance for widespread precipitation could arrive next weekend.
By midweek, surface high pressure centered over the Plains begins to
build east. This will not only reinforce the cold air mass in place,
but maintain a tight pressure gradient between the high and
sprawling low pressure anchored over far eastern Canada. With it,
blustery conditions are likely to continue Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures, while not record breaking, will run about 10 degrees
below normal and keep much of the region at or below the freezing
mark for through at least Thursday. Add the wind component and the
region could experience wind chills persistently in the single
digits and teens.
By late next week, a closed low near the Southwest may eject east
and attempt to interact with a northern branch disturbance diving
south. Recent operational runs of the GFS and EC have been flirting
with the possibility of deepening low pressure just off the local
coast, though their respective ensemble systems continue to offer
many different solutions at this point. Will be the period to watch
for the next chance of appreciable precipitation should timing of
these features line up.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pres passes S of the region on Mon.
VFR thru tngt, then clouds lower Mon mrng. MVFR expected aft
12Z, with pockets of IFR possible in steadier snow roughly
14-19Z. Improvement to VFR by 20-22Z Mon.
Runway accums less than an inch expected.
Flow generally 280-300 true thru tngt. Decreasing winds aft 22Z,
with speeds blw 10kt all arpts by 6Z. Lgt flow blw 10kt on Mon
with winds veering slightly to 340-360 true.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Isolated gusts over 30kt thru 21Z.
Amendments possible for timing and intensity of -SN on Mon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Rest of Monday: VFR by 20-22Z. Winds increase again aft 00Z Tue
with NW gusts up to 30kt.
Tuesday through Thursday: VFR and windy. Gusts aoa 35kt at
times.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA for all waters today, ending at various points tonight as the
pressure gradient weakens with diminishing winds and subsiding seas.
Occasional gale gusts are possible during the day however across the
ocean waters. A relatively tranquil period then follows on Monday
before winds and seas ramp up again Monday night with SCA conds by
Tuesday morning for all waters. This will be due to a tight
pressure gradient between building high pressure from the west
and low pressure over eastern Canada. The winds keep SCA
conditions on all waters through at least Thursday, with gales
possible on the ocean at times.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues anticipated through this week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-340-
355.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-
338-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...JC/JT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR