600
FXUS61 KOKX 061439
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
939 AM EST Mon Jan 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks through the Mid Atlantic today, passing to the
south and offshore tonight. High pressure then slowly builds in from
the west through Friday. An area of low pressure then passes to
our south this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure over southern Appalachians will continue working
east and off the coast today. Warm advection has allowed snow to
slowly make its way north towards the area. However, weak lift,
dry air, and nearby confluence to the northeast has made it
difficult for any snow to reach the ground so far this morning.
There still appears to be window of opportunity for light snow
to occur late this morning into early afternoon, mainly across
NE NJ, NYC metro, and Long Island. Snow growth overall looks
poor which may factor into snow-to-liquid ratios and could keep
them closer to 10:1 despite the cold thermal profiles. Most
places that see light snow could see a coating to several tenths
with some areas in southern parts of the city possibly
approaching an inch. However, latest trends suggest it may be
very difficult to see an inch. Intensity of the snow will be
light, but given cold temperatures, untreated surfaces could
become slick. Will monitor observational trends where snow does
fall in case any Special Weather Statements are needed.
Farther north, little to no accumulation is expected with
perhaps just some passing flurries, or remaining dry entirely,
especially north and east of I-287 and into southern CT.
A few flurries may linger late this afternoon with dry
conditions expected by sunset. Dry with increasing NW winds are
anticipated overnight as the low pulls away and deepens.
Temperatures fall back into the teens for most, and the lower
20s around the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Brisk and remaining cold through midweek.
As the low moves farther offshore Tuesday, surface high
pressure centered over the Plains begins to build east. This
will not only reinforce the cold air mass in place, but maintain
a tight pressure gradient between the high and sprawling low
pressure anchored over far eastern Canada. With it, a blustery NW
flow can be expected through midweek. Gusts on Tuesday look to
fall just shy of advisory criteria, as of now, with peak forecast
gusts generally in the 40 to 45 mph range. Similar conditions
can be expected on Wednesday, with dry conditions absent a stray
flurry or snow shower inland.
Temperatures, while not record breaking, will run about 10 degrees
below normal and keep most at or below the freezing mark through the
period. Add the wind component and the region likely see wind
chills persistently in the single digits and teens in this period.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure continues to slowly build in from the west on
Thursday, weakening as it finally shifts through the region Friday
into Friday night. Dry through his period with below normal
temperatures, although Friday`s highs will at least be warming
closer to normal levels. Gusty NW flow continues on Thursday with a
tight pressure gradient in place. Wind chills early Thursday morning
may range 5 above to 5 below zero.
Global models continue to show low pressure emerging off the east
coast to our south during Saturday and passing south of the 40N/70W
benchmark Saturday night into Sunday morning. The GFS is quickest
among the 00z models with the 500mb trough axis becoming negatively
tilted and thus farthest north with the storm center. Have nudged
PoPs downward a little from the previous forecast, but not as far
low as the 01z NBM as there`s still plenty of time to see if the
progressive/suppressed trend continues. The current forecast has dry
weather for Sunday with weak high pressure in place.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will pass to the south today.
VFR with lowering cigs this morning. IFR possible in steadier light
snow at the NYC terminals mostly from 16Z-19Z, otherwise mainly
MVFR during this period, improving back to VFR shortly thereafter.
Variable winds veer to NW-N with onset of light snow and, then
northerly much of the afternoon. Speeds generally 10kt or less
through the daytime hours. NNW flow increases with frequent
gusts after 01Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Light snow/flurries with no vis restrictions possible before
16Z. Tempo MVFR cigs possible before 16z. Chance that IFR
doesn`t occur.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday through Thursday: VFR. Gusts at or above 35kt at times.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Brief reprieve in conditions on all waters today, before winds ramp
back up again tonight. SCA conditions return to all waters
overnight into Tuesday as NW flow increases and gusts exceed 25
kt. Given the winds, cold air, and water temps, not out of the
question there could also be some light freezing spray, mainly
on the LI Sound and immediate nearshore ocean waters.
A Gale Watch remains in place for all waters Tuesday into Wednesday
due a strong pressure gradient and several shots of cold air moving
across the relatively warmer waters. Strong low pressure will reside
across the Canadian Maritimes during this period with high pressure
building in from the west. Gales likely linger into Thursday,
especially for the ocean waters, and may continue into Thursday
night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues anticipated through this weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/JC
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR