890
FXUS61 KOKX 061639
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1139 AM EST Mon Jan 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure tracks passes off the the Mid Atlantic coast this
afternoon and evening. High pressure then slowly builds in from
the west through Friday. An area of low pressure then passes to
our south this weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will continue moving across the southern Middle
Atlantic early this afternoon and then quickly offshore into the
evening. Light snow has spread northeastward and will continue
into the early afternoon. Subsidence in the low levels will
largely keep the intensity of the snow light, but there is just
enough lift in the middle levels to support snow into the early
afternoon. Most roads look just wet given the light intensity
and time of day so will not issue any SPS at this time.
Accumulations of a coating to under an inch look most likely.
There is still a low potential for around an inch across
southern parts of the NYC metro. A dusting is possible further
north into the Lower Hudson Valley and portions of Southern
Connecticut.
A few flurries may linger late this afternoon with dry
conditions expected by sunset. Dry with increasing NW winds are
anticipated overnight as the low pulls away and deepens. This
should help dry out moisture on the roads, but some black ice is
possible given the falling temperatures. Temperatures should
drop into the teens for most, and the lower 20s around the NYC
metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Brisk and remaining cold through midweek.
As the low moves farther offshore Tuesday, surface high
pressure centered over the Plains begins to build east. This
will not only reinforce the cold air mass in place, but maintain
a tight pressure gradient between the high and sprawling low
pressure anchored over far eastern Canada. With it, a blustery NW
flow can be expected through midweek. Gusts on Tuesday look to
fall just shy of advisory criteria, as of now, with peak forecast
gusts generally in the 40 to 45 mph range. Similar conditions
can be expected on Wednesday, with dry conditions absent a stray
flurry or snow shower inland.
Temperatures, while not record breaking, will run about 10 degrees
below normal and keep most at or below the freezing mark through the
period. Add the wind component and the region likely see wind
chills persistently in the single digits and teens in this period.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure continues to slowly build in from the west on
Thursday, weakening as it finally shifts through the region Friday
into Friday night. Dry through his period with below normal
temperatures, although Friday`s highs will at least be warming
closer to normal levels. Gusty NW flow continues on Thursday with a
tight pressure gradient in place. Wind chills early Thursday morning
may range 5 above to 5 below zero.
Global models continue to show low pressure emerging off the east
coast to our south during Saturday and passing south of the 40N/70W
benchmark Saturday night into Sunday morning. The GFS is quickest
among the 00z models with the 500mb trough axis becoming negatively
tilted and thus farthest north with the storm center. Have nudged
PoPs downward a little from the previous forecast, but not as far
low as the 01z NBM as there`s still plenty of time to see if the
progressive/suppressed trend continues. The current forecast has dry
weather for Sunday with weak high pressure in place.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will pass to the south today.
VFR with lowering cigs this morning. IFR possible in steadier light
snow at the NYC terminals mostly from 16Z-19Z, otherwise mainly
MVFR during this period, improving back to VFR shortly thereafter.
Variable winds veer to NW-N with onset of light snow and, then
northerly much of the afternoon. Speeds generally 10kt or less
through the daytime hours. NNW flow increases with frequent
gusts after 01Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Light snow/flurries with no vis restrictions possible before
16Z. Tempo MVFR cigs possible before 16z. Chance that IFR
doesn`t occur.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday through Thursday: VFR. Gusts at or above 35kt at times.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Brief reprieve in conditions on all waters today, before winds ramp
back up again tonight. SCA conditions return to all waters
overnight into Tuesday as NW flow increases and gusts exceed 25
kt. Given the winds, cold air, and water temps, not out of the
question there could also be some light freezing spray, mainly
on the LI Sound and immediate nearshore ocean waters.
A Gale Watch remains in place for all waters Tuesday into Wednesday
due a strong pressure gradient and several shots of cold air moving
across the relatively warmer waters. Strong low pressure will reside
across the Canadian Maritimes during this period with high pressure
building in from the west. Gales likely linger into Thursday,
especially for the ocean waters, and may continue into Thursday
night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues anticipated through this weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/JC
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR