969
FXUS61 KOKX 061838
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
138 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks passes off the the Mid Atlantic coast this
afternoon and evening. High pressure then slowly builds in from
the west through Friday. An area of low pressure then passes to
our south this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Light snow will continue through 3 pm before tapering to just
flurries towards sun down. Have issued an SPS to account for
slick roads heading into the evening commute. Most roads are
wet, but some secondaries may have a coating as well.
Temperatures are below freezing and with the sun angle going
down, icy spots may develop.
Dry with increasing NW winds are anticipated overnight as the
low pulls away and deepens. This should help dry out moisture on
the roads, but some black ice is possible given the falling
temperatures. Temperatures should drop into the teens for most,
and the lower 20s around the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Brisk and remaining cold through midweek.
As the low moves farther offshore Tuesday, surface high
pressure centered over the Plains begins to build east. This
will not only reinforce the cold air mass in place, but maintain
a tight pressure gradient between the high and sprawling low
pressure anchored over far eastern Canada. With it, a blustery NW
flow can be expected through midweek. Gusts on Tuesday look to
fall just shy of advisory criteria, as of now, with peak forecast
gusts generally in the 40 to 45 mph range. Similar conditions
can be expected on Wednesday, with dry conditions absent a stray
flurry or snow shower inland.
Temperatures, while not record breaking, will run about 10 degrees
below normal and keep most at or below the freezing mark through the
period. Add the wind component and the region likely see wind
chills persistently in the single digits and teens in this period.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure continues to slowly build in from the west on
Thursday, weakening as it finally shifts through the region Friday
into Friday night. Dry through his period with below normal
temperatures, although Friday`s highs will at least be warming
closer to normal levels. Gusty NW flow continues on Thursday with a
tight pressure gradient in place. Wind chills early Thursday morning
may range 5 above to 5 below zero.
Global models continue to show low pressure emerging off the east
coast to our south during Saturday and passing south of the 40N/70W
benchmark Saturday night into Sunday morning. The GFS is quickest
among the 00z models with the 500mb trough axis becoming negatively
tilted and thus farthest north with the storm center. Have nudged
PoPs downward a little from the previous forecast, but not as far
low as the 01z NBM as there`s still plenty of time to see if the
progressive/suppressed trend continues. The current forecast has dry
weather for Sunday with weak high pressure in place.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pres tracks out to sea tngt. High pres builds W of the
region on Tue.
Mainly MVFR in -SN this aftn with a few pockets of IFR
possible. Becoming VFR aft 20Z, and remaining VFR thru Tue.
Lgt and vrb winds this aftn become nly aft 20Z. Winds back to
the NW this eve and increase thru the ngt. Winds around 300 true
on Tue with ocnl gusts to around 40kt possible.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
IFR may not occur in -SN. Some timing adjustments for VFR onset
possible 20-22Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday through Thursday: VFR. Gusts at or above 35kt at times.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Deep low pres possible. IFR or lower with strong winds
and hvy sn/ra possible depending on track and intensity.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Brief reprieve in conditions on all waters today, before winds ramp
back up again tonight. SCA conditions return to all waters
overnight into Tuesday as NW flow increases and gusts exceed 25
kt. Given the winds, cold air, and water temps, not out of the
question there could also be some light freezing spray, mainly
on the LI Sound and immediate nearshore ocean waters.
A Gale Watch remains in place for all waters Tuesday into Wednesday
due a strong pressure gradient and several shots of cold air moving
across the relatively warmer waters. Strong low pressure will reside
across the Canadian Maritimes during this period with high pressure
building in from the west. Gales likely linger into Thursday,
especially for the ocean waters, and may continue into Thursday
night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues anticipated through this weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR