986
FXUS61 KOKX 062042
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
342 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

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Broad low pressure lingers over the Maritimes as high pressure
slowly builds in from the west through Friday. Low pressure
passes to the south Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure
returns for Sunday and the beginning of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

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Accumulating light snow has come to an end across the area late
this afternoon. Some flurries may linger through sunset, but
dry conditions are expected tonight. A Special Weather Statement
has been issued through 7 pm to account for potential icy/slick
conditions on untreated surfaces through the evening commute.
May need to extend this for overnight due to lingering black ice
or slick spots.

Otherwise, low pressure quickly pushes well offshore and gets
absorbed by the broader upper low over the Maritimes and North
Atlantic. A trailing shortwave swings across New England tonight.
Skies may remain mostly cloudy initially with some clearing
overnight into early Tuesday morning as the trough axis begins
pushing east.

NW-N flow increases tonight as the pressure gradient steepens
between the departing low pressure and building high pressure to
our west. Gusts 20-30 mph are possible and a few gusts up to 35
mph cannot be ruled out late tonight/early Tuesday morning.
Cold advection will allow temperatures to bottom out in the
teens for most spots with the NYC metro falling into the low
20s. Wind chills by day break will be in the single digits for
most locations when factoring in the gusty and dry conditions.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

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Brisk and cold conditions continue Wednesday. High pressure
remains over the central states with broad low pressure over
the Maritimes/North Atlantic. The pressure gradient will remain
steep through Wednesday with the strongest winds likely
occurring on Tuesday. NW wind gusts 35 to 40 mph are expected
with some isolated gusts around 45 mph. Have held off on an
Advisory as winds at the top of the boundary layer remain below
40 kt. Low level flow is a bit weaker Tuesday night into
Wednesday with gusts 25 to 35 mph.

Dry conditions are forecast through Wednesday. However, there are
is another shortwave that approaches Tuesday night into
Wednesday. There is minimal moisture to work with, but a passing
flurry cannot be completely ruled out.

Temperatures, while not record breaking, will run about 10 degrees
below normal. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper
20s to low 30s. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid teens inland
to the low 20s near the coast. Add the wind component and the region
likely see wind chills persistently in the single digits at night
and teens during the daytime.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

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Cold air remains across the region through the extended period
with temperatures remaining around 5 to near 10 degrees below
normal. The extended period will be relatively quiet with the
exception of a rather quick moving/progressive system for
Saturday into Saturday night. There is still some uncertainty
with the track of the low south of the region and will be
dependent on the amplification with the downstream ridge and
incoming trough. Much of the guidance remains amplified with the
low tracking south, and the area on the northern periphery of
the snow. The exception remains the GFS with the trough
beginning to become negative as the system moves off the
southeast coast. At this time with the southern and progressive
track have continued with slight chance probabilities for a
light snowfall.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

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Low pres tracks out to sea tngt. High pres builds W of the region
on Tue.

Becoming VFR thru 23Z, then remaining VFR thru Tue.

Nly winds back to the NW this eve and increase thru the ngt. Winds
around 300 true on Tue with ocnl gusts to around 40 kt
possible.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some variability in wind direction possible thru 00Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR. Gusts at or above 35kt at times.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Low pres possible. IFR or lower with strong winds and hvy
sn/ra possible depending on track and intensity.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...

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Brief SCA conditions are anticipated on the waters late tonight
as NW-N flow increases. These winds will quickly become gales on
Tuesday and will continue through Tuesday night on all waters.
Have converted the gale watch to a gale warning. The warning
continues into Wednesday on the ocean waters. There is a small
chance gales continue on the non-ocean waters on Wednesday, but
at this time there is a higher probability for SCA conditions.

There is also a chance of light freezing spray near shore late
tonight into Tuesday night.

Gale conditions on the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet may be
continuing into Wednesday evening while the remainder of the
forecast waters will be near gale force, except New York Harbor
where SCA conditions will be possible, as low pressure departs to
the northeast and high pressure builds to the west. With a
prolonged NW flow SCA conditions will likely continue on the
forecast waters through Friday, except across New York Harbor
where conditions will be more marginal. And marginal gale gusts
will be possible on the ocean waters late Wednesday night into
Thursday night. Then with high pressure across the region sub
advisory conditions will be likely Friday night into Saturday
night.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...

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No significant hydrologic issues anticipated through early next
week.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET