879
FXUS61 KOKX 072032
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
332 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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Broad low pressure meanders over the Canadian Maritimes as a
high slowly builds in from the west through Friday. Low pressure
passes to the south and east Saturday into Saturday night. High
pressure returns for Sunday and the beginning of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure over the
Central U.S. will keep a tight pressure gradient over us tonight,
meaning continued gusty winds into the night. The strong NW winds
will continue to advect colder air into the region tonight, aided by
a deep trough over the northeast. Lows tonight will be in the low-
20s to mid-teens. However, minimum wind chills tonight will be much
colder than the actual temperature due to gusty winds making it feel
like single-digits outside.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Brisk, cold, and dry conditions continue Wednesday into Wednesday
night.
As high pressure treks east toward the region, the pressure gradient
remains tight locally, and will maintain noticeably blustery
conditions, with gusts 30 to 40 mph likely. Heights continue to
lower aloft with a deep trough in the region, helping NW winds keep
cold air locked in the area. Wind chills will yet again be a concern
with maximum wind chills Wednesday in the mid-teens and minimum wind
chills in the single digits to a few below zero Wednesday night.
Actual highs will be in the mid/upper-20s Wednesday and while low
temperatures Wednesday night will be in the mid-teens to low-20s.
While temperatures won`t break records, we`re entering the
climatologically coldest period of the year, will still run about 10
degrees below normal through Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A strong pressure gradient force remains across the region Thursday
with low pressure meandering through the Canadian Maritime as high
pressure builds to the west. Winds will be mixing to 900 to 850 MB,
with winds 40 to 55 kt with strong cold advection. With the higher
winds and gusts likely have used a blend of the NBM 90th percentile
and the CONSALL MOS guidance have higher sustained winds and gusts.
A few gusts Thursday afternoon will once again be approaching 40 kt,
however, with the short duration and isolated nature of the higher
gusts not expected and wind headlines. Temperatures will be in the
mid 30s, 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with wind chills in the upper
teens to lower 20s. Temperatures moderate to near or just below
normal levels for Friday into the beginning of next week. Confidence
is slightly higher that there will be a light snow event for late
Friday night into Saturday, with some accumulations possible as most
guidance tracks a low south and east of the 40N/70W benchmark.
However, there still remain differences with the track of the low
which will affect snowfall across the region, and probabilities
remain at chance. The track will depend of the amplitude of a
northern stream trough digging to the upper midwest and potentially
into the Gulf coast states and the southern stream low which will be
moving out of Baja California Wednesday into Thursday and phasing
with the northern trough. High pressure returns for Sunday into
Monday as an upper ridge and surface high build across the region.
The high weakens Tuesday with the upper flow become more zonal with
a weak shortwave tracking near the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The terminals will remain between strong low pressure to the east
and strong high pressure to the west.
VFR.
Strong WNW-NW winds 30-40 kt through early this evening. Peak gusts
around 45 kt are possible. Gusts weaken slightly after 00z, becoming
25-30 kt overnight. Gusts increase again after day break Wednesday
with gusts 30-35 kt through the day.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts will likely vary a few kts from forecast at times. Peak gust
around 45 kt into this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Afternoon-Thursday: VFR. NW wind gusts 30-35 kt.
Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20 kt in the morning.
Saturday: MVFR-IFR possible. Chance of snow. N-NE wind gusts 20 kt
possible. NW-N gusts 20 kt possible.
Sunday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A Gale Warning is in effect on all waters thru at least Wednesday
afternoon. Gusty NNW flow 35 to 40 kt persists through this time.
While the warning currently runs until Wed 6 PM on non ocean waters,
it`s possible this could be extended thru Wednesday night. Ocean
water Gale Warning continues through Wednesday night.
With Long Island Sound water temperatures in the low-40s and winds
sustained 22-27 kts and air temperatures getting down to the mid-
20s, light freezing spray is possible tonight. Moderate freezing
spray is possible on the sound Wednesday night due to similar winds,
slightly cooler waters and air temperatrues a few degrees lower than
tonight.
Gale gusts will be likely across the ocean waters Thursday into
Thursday night as low pressure meanders through the Canadian
Maritime and high pressure builds in from the west. The non ocean
waters will see SCA conditions Thursday and Thursday night, with
gales possible. By Friday the center of high pressure will be
building closer to the region, and winds will be gradually
diminishing through the day. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be
likely during Friday with winds gusts and seas falling below
advisory levels by Friday evening. Winds and seas then remain sub
advisory levels through Saturday. Small craft conditions return on
the ocean waters by late Saturday night and continue into Sunday as
low pressure passes to the south and east, and a northwest flow
develops behind the low.
High pressure returns for Sunday night and Monday with sub SCA
conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues anticipated through early next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET