730
FXUS61 KOKX 082337
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
637 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain nearly stationary up to our north
across the Canadian Maritimes, while high pressure builds in
slowly from the west through Friday. Low pressure passes to the
south and east Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure then
builds in for Sunday and weakens over the area into early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast on track with no significant changes.
An upper trough across the Northeast and into eastern Canada
will slowly retreat to the NE during this time, while ridging
builds in from the west. This will result in continued cold
advection and gusty NW winds. Expect to see wind gusts 25 to 35
mph overnight, increasing to 35 to 45 mph on Thursday. Winds
look to be short of advisory criteria at this time, but will
come close. In addition, with heights building in from the
west, the inversion lowers to 925 mb on Thursday. While the
depth of the mixed layer looks to increase, winds around this
level will increase to 40-45 kt. Model guidance also shows a
weakness in the NW flow at this level due to some upstream
blocking over the Catskills. This is less apparent in the high
res guidance, but could weaken gusts some across eastern
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley down into LI. So, there is
enough uncertainty at this time to hold off. Expect to get some
more looks with the 18Z and 00Z model cycles to reassess this
potential.
Tonight will likely be the coldest night of the week with lows
in the teens for all but the NYC metro, where it should get to
around 20. The gusty winds will limit the radiational cooling,
keeping temperatures only about 5 to 8 degrees below normal.it
will warm several degrees on Thursday with highs from around 20
inland, to the lower 30s at the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winds will gradually subside through Friday as weakening high
pressure builds in from the west. Expect gusts to drop off to
about 20 mph in the afternoon. Temperatures return close to
normal levels with lows in the 20s and highs in the mid and
upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12z forecast models continue to be in good agreement with not
much change from previous forecast.
A lack of phasing between the northern and southern stream
troughs will result in low pressure emerging off the Carolina
coast late Friday night into Saturday morning. The low will
gradually strengthen well south and east of the 40N/70W
benchmark Saturday afternoon into evening. Forecast guidance
continues to show most of the precipitation either completely
missing the area or the bulk of the precipitation remaining
offshore with just a glancing chance for some light
precipitation. Will continue to cap PoPs at chance late Friday
night through Saturday afternoon. Overall higher chances will be
across the southern zones, closer to the offshore storm. Even
if the northern periphery of its precip shield doesn`t reach us,
can`t completely rule out snow showers for the entire forecast
area in association with the northern stream energy shifting
through the area. Should any snowfall occur Friday night through
Saturday, there`s increasing confidence that accumulations
would be light. Right now, looking at snowfall amounts between a
trace to half an inch.
High pressure returns behind the departing system Saturday night
through Sunday, then weakens over the region Monday and Tuesday.
Expect mostly dry conditions through this period. Temperatures will
remain rather cold through the long term, with highs in the 30s each
day.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The terminals will remain between strong low pressure to the
northeast and strong high pressure to the west.
VFR.
Strong flow around 310 magnetic through the TAF period. Gusts
up to 40kt diminishing slightly into tonight. Occasional gusts
over 30kt will be possible all night. Gusts return to 35-40 kt
through Thu, diminishing slightly again Thu ngt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Night: VFR with gradually diminishing NW winds.
Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20 kt in the morning.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR possible. Chance of light snow. NW gusts 20 kt
possible.
Sunday-Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gale Warnings will continue into Thursday evening due to a
continued strong NW flow between deep low pressure over the
Canadian Maritimes and high pressure building in from the west.
Later Thursday night gale conditions will give way to small
craft conditions as the winds gradually come down. Heading into
Friday afternoon, ocean seas are forecast to fall below 5 ft
and wind gusts below 25 kt.
Sub-advisory conditions likely continue through Saturday night, then
SCA conditions will be possible Saturday night into Sunday with a
pressure gradient tightening behind a storm strengthening well-
offshore. Sub-SCA conditions return for the start of next week as
high pressure builds over the area waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues anticipated through early next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...BC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC/BR
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW