618
FXUS61 KOKX 091739
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1239 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes will slowly push northeast,
while high pressure to the west will gradually build through Friday.
An upper level disturbance pivots through Saturday while low pressure
down to the south pushes well offshore. High pressure builds towards
the area Saturday night and will settle over the region Sunday into
Sunday night. The high weakens Monday as broad low pressure and an
associated cold front cross the area Tuesday followed by the return
of high pressure next Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds continue to the primary issue today with a broad area of
low pressure over the western Atlantic and high pressure
building in from the west. A wind advisory will remain in place
through a good portion of this evening for the entire area. The
forecast sounding profiles for the most part are supportive of
wind advisory criteria being met (at least lower end of wind adv
criteria). The only uncertainty centers around inversion at
around 850 mb initially, with some guidance suggestive that the
inversion lowers closer to 900 mb. In any event, the top of the
mixed layer looks to get at least 40 kt winds down on momentum
transfer, along with the fact that the region has overachieved
in recent days (NW flow regime). Expect sustained winds at 20 to
30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph. A few spots could gusts as high
as 55 mph.
Thus another dry, windy, and cold day on tap with temperatures
struggling to get out of the 20s further north, and around
freezing or just above for southern coastal sections and the NYC
metro. The advisory will last through 03z, with the winds
trailing off for the second half of this evening, and more
noticeably after midnight.
Lows tonight with a gusty NW wind continuing, although the stronger
wind gusts will subside will be generally in the 20s, with the wind
making it feel about 10 to 15 degrees colder as wind chills will run
in the upper single digits up north, to mainly teens along the
immediate coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some subtle height rises are progged ahead of the next feature into
Friday. The cP air mass will undergo some modification, especially
into the day Friday. During the day Friday look for temperatures
to get closer to normal, but likely ending up a few degrees
below as max temps should get into the middle and upper 30s as
all places should get above freezing. The winds will continue to
gradually lighten through the day as the pressure gradient
continues to weaken, although the winds will still gust through
the morning as went above consensus guidance with wind speeds
through the first half of the day. After a mostly sunny start,
look for more in the way of high clouds as cirrus streaks in
during the late afternoon in advance of a strong confluent
trough developing upstream back to the southwest.
For Friday night clouds increase from west to east. Introduce slight
chance PoPs across western areas closer to 3z, with the entire
region getting into slight chance to chance PoPs after 6z. Positive
vorticity advection begins to increase during this time frame,
however the lower levels will remain moisture starved. The main
driver of any synoptic lift will be PVA as any thermal advection
will get shunted well south of the area into Saturday morning as the
coastal system will not make the northerly turn up the coast to
begin the weekend. If anything the NWP consensus shears the storm
out to sea even more so with the more recent runs. By Saturday
morning NW interior locations may have a light coating of snow as
anything that fall will be colder enough to be in the form of snow.
Lows Friday night will be primarily in the 20s. Another night where
radiational cooling is not expected, but not due to wind as the
winds will be light, rather due to cloud cover.
The trough axis approaches Saturday morning with much of the higher
res guidance showing snow showers moving from W to E across the
region. Most places are expecting to see around a dusting, to
perhaps a half inch to an inch in the higher elevations to the NW.
Look for partial sunshine to develop into the afternoon as the
trough axis pivots through with the winds switching to the NW for
the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 30s region wide.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes to the forecast thinking Saturday night
through the middle of next week.
Key Points:
*Dry conditions will prevail Saturday night through the middle of
next week.
*Temperatures will be seasonably cold Sunday into early next week
with potential for colder air to arrive by the middle of next week.
The model guidance is in overall good agreement with the larger
scale evolution of the pattern during the period.A progressive
shortwave ridge will build over the northeast Saturday night into
Sunday. The ridge weakens as it moves offshore by Monday with a
broad upper low swinging towards the region Tuesday into Wednesday.
High pressure will be in control through Sunday and then weaken
early next week. A dry cold front appears likely to be associated
with the aforementioned upper low sometimes Tuesday into Tuesday
night. This may set the stage for another period of blustery and
colder conditions for the middle of next week. High temperatures
Sunday into early next week will be in the mid to upper 30s, with
some of the warmer spots potentially touching 40 degrees. Nighttime
temperatures will largely 20s through Monday night. A colder airmass
arrives with the cold front allowing lows to potentially fall into
the teens for mid week with highs struggling to rise above freezing.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The terminals will remain between strong low pressure to the
northeast and strong high pressure to the west. High pressure
weakens on Friday.
VFR.
Strong flow around 300-310 true through the TAF period. Gusts
35-40 kt this afternoon with peak gusts around 45 kt. Winds
begin to diminish after 00z with gusts decreasing to 30-35 kt
and then 25-30 kt overnight into early Friday morning. Gusts
look to shut off sometime around 18z on Friday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional peak gusts around 45 kt possible this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Afternoon: VFR.
Friday Night-Saturday: Chance of light snow and MVFR. NW gusts
20 kt possible late Saturday.
Sunday-Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gale warnings continue on the ocean waters today with gusts to
around 40 kt and ocean seas mostly 6 to 9 ft. The NW winds will
continue into the first half of Friday, with gales going over to
small craft conditions towards Friday morning. High pressure draws
near and the pressure gradient will slacken with lighter winds
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Seas on the ocean fall below 5
ft Friday morning and eventually get down to 1 to 2 ft late Friday
night. Sub small craft conditions will continue through the day
Saturday, but a NW wind begins to pick up some late in the afternoon.
Marginal SCA conditions are possible Saturday night into Sunday on
the ocean behind a departing offshore low pressure. Otherwise, high
pressure builds towards the waters Sunday night into early next week
allowing winds and seas to remain below SCA levels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS