424
FXUS61 KOKX 092310
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
610 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes will slowly push
northeast, while high pressure to the west builds in through
Friday. An upper level disturbance will then pivot through the
area late Friday night into Saturday, while deepening low
pressure passes to the south and east. High pressure follows
late Saturday into Sunday, but then weakens Monday as cold front
approaches. High pressure will then return for the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For this early evening update, sustained winds and wind gusts
were adjusted down for the remainder of the evening and early
night as winds have ramped down quicker than anticipated.
However, given there are still a handful of locations that
remain at Wind Advisory criteria, have decided to keep the
Advisory up until its expiration time of 10 pm. The rest of the
forecast remains on track.
The upper low over the Canadian Maritimes continues to work slowly
out into the North Atlantic with a building ridge moving in from
the west. This will allow for the strong NW flow to finally begin
to weaken. The Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 pm.
Gusts of 45 to 50 mph will still be possible through early this
evening and then gradually weaken into Friday morning.
High pressure weakens while building in from the west on Friday,
basically dissipating between the departing low and the incoming
upper trough moving into the Great Lakes. Gusts should be gone
by afternoon.
Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 20s with highs on
Friday in the upper 30s to around 40. These values are close to
normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An incoming upper trough from the Great Lakes and a southern
branch low traversing the southern states will not phase until
well offshore. This had been a possibility earlier in the week
with the potential for a significant winter storm along the east
coast. A secondary low will develop along the Carolina coast
Friday night, tracking well south and east of the area on
Saturday. This will keep the area well north of the heavier
precipitation associated with the low, however, there is the
potential for a period light snow and/or flurries late Friday
night into Saturday afternoon as an amplifying upper trough
works across the area. Model consensus produces a low chance
for snow with liquid equivalent amounts only a few hundredths of
an inch. This will allow for a potential coating to as much as
half an inch of snowfall. The NAM in particular was a bit more
aggressive with a 1-2 tenths of liquid equivalent but has
backed off some at 18Z. This seems to be due to a slight northward
trend in the low due to the Great Lakes trough amplifying some.
This trend was also seen in some of the other guidance, but
impact has been minimal. A worse case scenario at this time
would be for an inch or two of snowfall.
Clouds will lower and thicken Friday night with chance of light
snow overspreading the area before daybreak, being a mainly
morning into early afternoon event for Saturday. Winds will
generally be light during this time with a strengthening NW
flow behind the low Saturday afternoon.
Lows Friday night will be a bit warmer in the lower 20s to
around 30, warmest across the NYC metro. Highs Saturday will be
in the lower to mid 30s generally under cloudy conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Following a frontal passage and an exiting low to the east, an upper-
level ridge will build in Saturday night from the west, centering
itself over the area on Sunday. This ridge will eventually exit
early Monday. High pressure will move in at the surface from the
southwest during this timeframe.
Its likely that Saturday night could be breezy with some gusty NW
flow due to the exiting low still in the vicinity causing a
tightening pressure gradient. Clouds will clear out early Saturday
night thanks to high pressure moving in.
Sunday into Monday the winds lighten and turn SW allowing
temperatures to moderate themselves, warming into the upper-30s to
low-40s Sunday and Monday afternoons. Given the light winds and
mostly clear skies expected during this timeframe, we`ll have
optimal radiational cooling conditions keeping nightly low
temperatures cooler in the teens to 20s.
An upper-level low deepens over the Great Lakes region Monday,
moving over the northeast US early Tuesday before pushing offshore
on Wednesday where it will linger through Thursday keeping heights
lowered aloft through this time period. This upper-level low will
bring a dry cold front through early on Tuesday. Following this
front, strong NW winds will settle in the remainder of Tuesday and
into Wednesday as our region remains sandwiched between a tight
pressure gradient caused by low pressure to our east and high
pressure to our west. This pressure gradient will lessen Wednesday
night into Thursday allowing winds to weaken. Overall, winds do not
look to be as impactful next week as they have been this week given
weaker winds forecasted in the lower levels. However, conditions are
still expected to be cold and blustery Tuesday through Thursday.
Tuesday highs will be in the mid-30s, followed by near or below
freezing highs Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will drop into
the low-20s to mid-teens each night Tue-Thu.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pres builds into the region on Fri.
VFR.
Northwest flow around 300-310 true through the TAF period. Gusts
35-40 kt this evening with peak gusts up to 45 kt. Winds
decreasing gradually overnight and Fri, with gusts ending 18-21Z
Fri. Light and vrb winds Fri ngt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional peak gusts up to 45 kt possible thru 3Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night-Saturday: VFR early, then Chance of light snow and
MVFR aft 6Z. NW gusts 20 kt possible late Saturday.
Sunday-Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gales remain up for all waters and will likely drop below
criteria toward daybreak Friday. Low pressure near the Canadian
Maritimes will lift out into the North Atlantic while high
pressure builds in from the west. SCA conditions likely linger
into the morning hours Friday.
The next chance for SCA conditions are possible Saturday night
into early Sunday on the ocean behind a departing offshore low
pressure. Otherwise, high pressure builds towards the waters
Sunday night into early next week allowing winds and seas to
remain below SCA levels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...BR/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JMC/JT
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW