538
FXUS61 KOKX 111133
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
633 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes well south and east through this afternoon.
High pressure then builds in tonight and settles over the area
on Sunday before weakening on Monday. A pair of cold fronts
will move across the area Monday night through the middle of the
week. High pressure builds in Thursday into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light snow will continue moving through the area early this
morning. Lingering dry air has been eroding away with
observations of light snow becoming more widespread. The light
snow will quickly taper off 8-10 am from west to east with just
lingering flurries into early afternoon. Snowfall accumulations
look to be about a coating to under a half inch.
Dry conditions will then prevail this afternoon, but it will
remain mostly cloudy as the northern stream trough and energy
swing across the area. Temperatures should rise into the low and
middle 30s for highs. Northwest winds will also increase with
gusts to around 20 mph possible late in the day.
The region will then lie between the departing low offshore and
high pressure building in the from the south and west. A breezy
northwest wind will continue for much of the area with the most
frequent gusts, 20-25 mph, closer to the coast. Low
temperatures fall into the lower and middle 20s for most spots
and the upper 20s in the NYC metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be in control both at the surface and aloft
Sunday into Sunday night as an upper ridge settles over the
region. This will allow for dry conditions, weak winds and
temperatures to at or just above normal. Highs will be in the
upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Lows on Sunday night will be
near normal in the in the 20s for most spots and around 30 in
the NYC metro.
The ridge axis moves offshore on Monday with the surface high
pressure weakening over the area. A closed upper low will swing
across the Great Lakes late in the day into Monday night. This
will send a cold front across the area. Based on the latest
global model and ensemble consensus, the front should be moving
through or just east of the area late Monday night into early
Tuesday morning. A nearly zonal flow aloft will prevent moisture
return so other than a slight increase in clouds the front will
move through dry. Cold advection kicks in behind the front with
temperatures and dew points starting to fall by day break
Tuesday. Westerly winds will also shift to the northwest and
start increasing by day break as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Point(s)
* Dry and seasonably cold weather prevails.
The basic premise of a Western CONUS ridge and Eastern CONUS
trough continues into the long term period. There may be some
transient upper level ridging into the Eastern seaboard and our
region towards the tail end of the period as NWP consensus
attempts to pull the upper level trough back a bit further west
towards the start of next weekend. Essentially a dry and cold
period with reinforcements of cP air arriving from the Canadian
prairies. The mid week period will be the coldest in the
extended as day time temperatures will struggle to get to
freezing at the coast for a multi-day period, which will likely
be Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday will likely be the coldest
day of the period, especially when you factor in the wind as the
500 mb upper low and vort max swings through late Tue and in
its wake the pressure gradient is likely to be strongest into
the day Wednesday. Wednesday`s wind chills may not get out of
the teens. Otherwise predominantly dry with sub chance PoPs
through at least the start of next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak surface trough extending north of developing low pressure
down to our south will move to the east towards midday. The
developing low moves offshore and passes well east of the area this
afternoon.
Light snow exits this morning with MVFR prevailing through this
morning. Some terminals will have non-prevailing pockets of VFR
conditions at times through this morning. VFR conditions will
prevail / return by the early afternoon.
The winds will be light and variable through the early morning. The
winds become NW towards late morning into the afternoon with gusts
up to 20 kt very late in the day and for the evening. Gusts likely
continue into the first half of the night before diminishing after
06-09Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
VFR conditions may return earlier than what is reflected in TAFs.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday-Monday: VFR.
Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-30 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mostly tranquil conditions on the waters this morning other
than some light snow. Winds will begin to increase this
afternoon with wind gusts reaching 25-30 kt on the ocean this
evening into tonight. Winds likely average around 20 kt on the
non- ocean waters, but there is chance for 25 kt gusts on the
eastern Sound as well. Will mention occasional 25 kt gusts for
these waters. Winds weaken on Sunday and will remain below SCA
levels through Monday. Marginal SCA winds are possible on the
ocean by late Monday night.
Small craft conditions are likely to develop during Tuesday and
continue through Wednesday and possibly into Wednesday night before
subsiding towards Thursday morning. A period of gales is possible,
especially out on the ocean waters Tuesday night into a portion of
Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS