339
FXUS61 KOKX 111519
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1019 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will pass well south and east today. High pressure
will then build in tonight and settle over the area on Sunday
before weakening on Monday. A pair of cold fronts will move
across from Monday night into Wednesday. High pressure will
build in from Thursday into Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Radar and sfc obs show light snow confined mostly to SE CT and
the forks of Long Island, with just lingering flurries there and
in a few spots across the Hudson Valley and interior SW CT into
early afternoon. Snowfall accumulations look to be an inch
across some parts of interior S CT, to under a half inch most
elsewhere.
Dry conditions should prevail this afternoon, with skies
remaining mostly cloudy as the northern stream trough and
energy swing across. Temperatures should rise into the lower/mid
30s. Northwest winds will also increase with gusts to 20-25 mph
possible late in the day.
The region will then lie between the departing low offshore and
high pressure building in the from the south and west. A brisk
NW wind continue, with frequent gusts at 20-25 mph mainly closer
to the coast. Low temperatures fall to the lower/mid 20s for
most spots and to the upper 20s in the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will be in control both at the surface and aloft
into Sunday night as an upper ridge settles over the region.
This will allow for dry conditions, weak winds and temperatures
to at or just above normal. Highs will be in the upper 30s to
around 40. Lows Sunday night will be near normal, in the 20s for
most spots, and around 30 in the NYC metro.
The ridge axis moves offshore on Monday with the surface high
weakening over the area. A closed upper low will swing across
the Great Lakes late day Mon into Mon night, sending a cold
front across. Based on the latest global model and ensemble
consensus, the front should be moving through or just east of
the area late Mon night into early Tue morning. A nearly zonal
flow aloft will prevent moisture return, so other than a slight
increase in clouds, the front will move through dry. CAA kicks
in behind the front with temperatures and dew points starting
to fall by daybreak Tuesday. W winds will also shift to the NW and
start increasing by daybreak as well.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key Point(s):
* Dry and seasonably cold weather prevails.
The basic premise of a Western CONUS ridge and Eastern CONUS
trough continues into the long term period. There may be some
transient upper level ridging into the Eastern seaboard and our
region towards the tail end of the period as NWP consensus
attempts to pull the upper level trough back a bit further west
towards the start of next weekend. Essentially a dry and cold
period with reinforcements of cP air arriving from the Canadian
prairies. The mid week period will be the coldest in the
extended as day time temperatures will struggle to get to
freezing at the coast for a multi-day period, which will likely
be Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday will likely be the coldest
day of the period, especially when you factor in the wind as the
500 mb upper low and vort max swings through late Tue and in
its wake the pressure gradient is likely to be strongest into
the day Wednesday. Wednesday`s wind chills may not get out of
the teens. Otherwise predominantly dry with sub chance PoP
through at least the start of next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low moving well offshore. High pressure starts to build in from
the west. Light snow tapering off. Leftover low ceilings at
mainly MVFR levels but some terminals are just into VFR and some
locally lower near the IFR level. Expecting a return to VFR
from west to west going into this afternoon. VFR continues
tonight through the rest of the TAF period.
Winds becoming NW near 5-10 kt going into this afternoon. Winds
pick up late this afternoon to 10-15 kt with gusts near 20-25
kt. The gusty winds continue tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
VFR conditions may return earlier than what is reflected in
TAFs.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday-Monday: VFR.
Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-30 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mostly tranquil conditions this morning as light snow ends out
east. Winds will begin to increase this afternoon with wind
gusts reaching 25-30 kt on the ocean this evening into tonight.
Winds likely average around 20 kt on the non-ocean waters, but
there is chance for 25 kt gusts on the eastern Sound as well.
Winds weaken on Sunday and will remain below SCA levels through
Mon. Marginal SCA winds are possible on the ocean by late
Mon night.
SCA cond likely to redevelop on Tue and continue through Wed or
Wed night before subsiding towards Thursday morning. A period of
gales is possible, especially out on the ocean waters Tue night
into a portion of Wed.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
There are no hydrologic concerns attm.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JM/JE
MARINE...JE/BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG/DS