025
FXUS61 KOKX 111836
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
136 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass well south and east today. High pressure
will then build in tonight and settle over the area on Sunday
before weakening on Monday. A pair of cold fronts will move
across from Monday night into Wednesday. High pressure will
build in from Thursday into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
With the approach of the upper trough and associated forcing,
lift precip expanded back westward across most of S CT and back
into Suffolk County. Obs are showing a light mix with rain in
spots. This precip should taper off through the afternoon, with
dry cond expected tonight and skies clearing from west to east
late this afternoon into this evening, with the region lying
between intensifying/departing offshore low pressure and high
pressure building to the west. As this takes place, NW winds
will also increase and become brisk (gusts 20-25 mph),
especially in the NYC metro area and along the coast.
Temperatures should fall to the lower/mid 20s for most spots and
to the upper 20s in the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will be in control both at the surface and aloft
daytime Sunday night as an upper ridge settles over the region.
This will allow for dry conditions, weak winds and temperatures
to at or just above normal. Highs will be in the upper 30s/lower
40s.
As the upper ridge slides east Sunday night, a quasi-zonal flow
aloft may bring some mid level clouds into the area, especially
inland closer to some weak forcing aloft. Temps will fall to
the lower 30 in NYC, the 20s most elsewhere, with some teens
possible in the Long Island Pine Barrens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The ridge axis moves offshore on Monday with the surface high
weakening over the area. A closed upper low will swing across
the Great Lakes late day Mon into Mon night, sending a cold
front across. The front should be moving through or just east
of the area late Mon night into early Tue morning. A nearly
zonal flow aloft will prevent moisture return, so other than a
slight increase in clouds, the front will move through dry.
CAA kicks in behind the front with temperatures and dew points
starting to fall by daybreak Tue. W winds will also shift to
the NW and start increasing by daybreak as well.
The basic premise of a Western CONUS ridge and Eastern CONUS
trough then continues into the longer term period. There may be
some transient upper level ridging into the Eastern seaboard
and our region toward the tail end of the period. Essentially a
dry and cold period with reinforcements of cP air arriving from
the Canadian prairies. The mid week period will be the coldest as
daytime temperatures struggle to get to freezing at the coast
Wed-Thu. Wednesday will likely be the coldest day of the
period, especially when you factor in the wind as the 500 mb
upper low and vort max swing through late Tue and in its wake
the pressure gradient is likely to be strongest into daytime
Wednesday. Wind chills on Wed may not get out of the teens.
Otherwise predominantly dry with sub chance PoP through at least
the start of next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure starts to build in from the west. Some lingering
light snow remains east of NYC terminals this afternoon, but
expected vsbys to stay mainly VFR with this. Dry conditions
tonight through rest of TAF period for all terminals.
A mix of MVFR to VFR conditions this afternoon expected to
become totally VFR by tonight. MVFR is mainly for low stratus.
VFR conditions expected tonight through the remainder of the
TAF period.
Winds becoming NW near 10 kts this afternoon. Winds pick up late
this afternoon to 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt. The gusty
winds continue tonight with gusts near 25 kt. Gusts lower back
to near 20 kt going into Sunday morning. Winds will be on a
lowering trend for Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of categorical changes could be 1-3 hours off from TAF.
Categories could fluctuate between VFR and MVFR this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday afternoon: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt diminish.
Sunday night-Monday: VFR.
Monday night: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt develop.
Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts near 20-25 kt. Wind gusts
diminish Wednesday night.
Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mostly tranquil conditions this morning as light snow ends out
east. Winds will begin to increase this afternoon with wind
gusts reaching 25-30 kt on the ocean tonight. There is a chance
for ocnl 25-kt gusts on the non ocean waters as well.
Winds weaken on Sunday and will remain below SCA levels through
Mon. Marginal SCA winds are possible on the ocean by late Mon
night.
SCA cond likely to redevelop on Tue and continue through Wed or
Wed night before subsiding towards Thursday morning. A period of
gales is possible, especially out on the ocean waters Tue night
into a portion of Wed.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns attm.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG