okx-afd on 2025-01-11

245
FXUS61 KOKX 112058
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
358 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --Intensifying offshore low pressure will move farther out to sea
tonight while high pressure slowly builds from the west. The
high will settle over the area Sunday into Sunday night. A pair
of cold fronts will move across from Monday night into
Wednesday. High pressure will build in from Thursday into
Friday. A frontal system may impact the area next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --With the approach of the upper trough and associated forcing,
lift precip has expanded back westward across most of S CT and
into parts of the Hudson Valley and across Long Island. Obs are
showing a light mix with rain in spots. This precip should
taper off into early this evening, with dry cond expected
tonight and skies clearing from west to east this evening.
NW winds are already increasing and becoming brisk (gusts 20-25
mph), especially in the NYC metro area and along the coast.
Temperatures should fall to the lower/mid 20s for most spots and
to the upper 20s in the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be in control both at the surface and aloft
daytime Sunday night as an upper ridge settles over the region.
This will allow for dry conditions, weak winds and temperatures
to at or just above normal. Highs will be in the upper 30s/lower
40s.

As the upper ridge slides east Sunday night, a quasi-zonal flow
aloft may bring some mid level clouds into the area, especially
inland closer to some weak forcing aloft. Temps will fall to
the lower 30 in NYC, the 20s most elsewhere, with some teens
possible in the Long Island Pine Barrens.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Mainly dry conditions in the long term with the passage of a
couple of moisture starved cold fronts, one late Monday into
Monday night and another weak front or surface trough on
Wednesday. Lift is too weak associated with these features to
allow for any widespread precipitation. However a stray
snow/rain shower or flurry cannot be ruled out with these
passages, with better chances Monday than Wednesday, but again,
have gone with a dry forecast.

After Monday and the passage of the cold front, Canadian high
pressure builds in and brings another round of cold air from Tuesday
through Thursday. 850 temperatures across deterministic models show
-13 to -16 C during this time frame. NBM high temperatures range
from the upper 20s to around freezing during this time frame. Stuck
close to the NBM for temperatures, but given the aforementioned 850
temperatures, these highs may be a couple of degrees too warm.
Additionally, the spread between the 25th and 75th percentile in the
NBM is about 3 to 4 degrees F. Therefore, would not be surprised if
subsequent forecasts show lower temperatures during this period.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the teens to 20s.

Zonal flow aloft from Monday into Tuesday, then a series of weak
shortwave troughs move through during the week. The next chance for
any precipitation comes next weekend as a frontal system may impact
the region.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure starts to build in from the west. Some isolated areas
of lingering light snow remain, but expecting vsbys to stay mainly
VFR with this. Expecting dry conditions tonight and then
lasting through rest of TAF period for all terminals.

Outside of some MVFR stratus going into early this evening, mainly
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

NW winds near 10 kts picking up late this afternoon to 10-15 kt with
gusts near 20 kt. The gusty winds continue tonight with gusts near
25 kt. Gusts lower back to near 20 kt going into Sunday morning.
Winds will be on a lowering trend for Sunday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of categorical changes could be 1-3 hours off from TAF.
Categories could fluctuate between VFR and MVFR this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday afternoon: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt diminish.

Sunday night-Monday: VFR.

Monday night: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt develop.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts near 20-25 kt. Wind gusts
diminish Wednesday night.

Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Winds are starting to gust to 25 kt ahead of earlier fcst at
some land sites invof NY Harbor, and gusts are also already
higher than anticipated on the central Sound. So the SCA has
been expanded to include all waters except the western Sound
and the Great South Bay, for gusts 25-30 kt expected and ocean
seas building to 3-5 ft.

Winds and seas diminish late tonight into Sunday morning via
building high pressure.

SCA conditions likely to develop Monday night for the ocean waters
and Tuesday for the non-ocean waters, continuing through Wednesday
and possibly Wednesday night. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt are expected
on strong cold advection from Tuesday into Wednesday on all
waters. Waves on the ocean waters peak at 4 to 7 ft Tuesday
night, with 5 ft waves expected over the central sound. Waves
diminish Wednesday, with wave heights on ocean waters falling
below 5 ft Wednesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --There are no hydrologic concerns through the first half of next
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-340.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP