620
FXUS61 KOKX 120233
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
933 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure well offshore continues to track east overnight as
high pressure slowly builds from the west. The high will settle
over the area Sunday into Sunday night. A pair of cold fronts
will move across from Monday night into Wednesday. High pressure
will build in from Thursday into Friday. A frontal system may
impact the area next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Flurries have ended with skies becoming nearly clear as low
pressure moves well east of the area. Dry cond expected for the
remainder of the night. With the high building to the west, the
pressure gradient will be weakening by late tonight with winds
and gusts gradually subsiding. Updated for current conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be in control both at the surface and aloft
daytime Sunday night as an upper ridge settles over the region.
This will allow for dry conditions, weak winds and temperatures
to at or just above normal. Highs will be in the upper 30s/lower
40s.
As the upper ridge slides east Sunday night, a quasi-zonal flow
aloft may bring some mid level clouds into the area, especially
inland closer to some weak forcing aloft. Temps will fall to
the lower 30 in NYC, the 20s most elsewhere, with some teens
possible in the Long Island Pine Barrens.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly dry conditions in the long term with the passage of a
couple of moisture starved cold fronts, one late Monday into
Monday night and another weak front or surface trough on
Wednesday. Lift is too weak associated with these features to
allow for any widespread precipitation. However a stray
snow/rain shower or flurry cannot be ruled out with these
passages, with better chances Monday than Wednesday, but again,
have gone with a dry forecast.
After Monday and the passage of the cold front, Canadian high
pressure builds in and brings another round of cold air from Tuesday
through Thursday. 850 temperatures across deterministic models show
-13 to -16 C during this time frame. NBM high temperatures range
from the upper 20s to around freezing during this time frame. Stuck
close to the NBM for temperatures, but given the aforementioned 850
temperatures, these highs may be a couple of degrees too warm.
Additionally, the spread between the 25th and 75th percentile in the
NBM is about 3 to 4 degrees F. Therefore, would not be surprised if
subsequent forecasts show lower temperatures during this period.
Low temperatures are expected to be in the teens to 20s.
Zonal flow aloft from Monday into Tuesday, then a series of weak
shortwave troughs move through during the week. The next chance for
any precipitation comes next weekend as a frontal system may impact
the region.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds to the west of the terminals overnight
through Sunday.
VFR.
Winds remain from the NW into Sunday afternoon, when winds begin
to back toward the W and WNW with speeds diminishing. Gusts
continue this evening, and gradually diminish before ending 06Z
west and 09Z east as the high builds to the west. Gusts may end
or become more occasional late this evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night-Monday: VFR.
Monday night: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt develop.
Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts near 20-25 kt. Wind gusts
diminish Wednesday night.
Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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The small craft advisories remain as earlier issued.
Winds and seas diminish late tonight into Sunday morning via
building high pressure, with the advisories ending across all
waters by midday Sunday.
SCA conditions likely to develop Monday night for the ocean
waters and Tuesday for the non-ocean waters, continuing through
Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. Wind gusts of 25 to 30
kt are expected on strong cold advection from Tuesday into
Wednesday on all waters. Waves on the ocean waters peak at 4 to
7 ft Tuesday night, with 5 ft waves expected over the central
sound. Waves diminish Wednesday, with wave heights on ocean
waters falling below 5 ft Wednesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the first half of next
weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-340.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG/JP/MET
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP