795
FXUS61 KOKX 122357
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
657 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually weaken and shift more south of the
waters tonight. A wave of low pressure approaches from SE Canada
Monday into Monday night. A cold front will pass across the waters
Monday night. Another cold front moves across late Tuesday. High
pressure builds in from the west Tuesday night and remains in
control through Wednesday night. A frontal system approaches
from the northwest Thursday and dissipates over the region
Friday. Another more potent frontal system impacts the region
next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is generally on track. Temperatures and dew points are
a bit cooler than forecast for eastern areas as they remain
clear. However, clouds moving in from the west will overspread
these areas in the next hour or so, and temperatures should
remain steady or rise. Previous discussion follows.
Going into this evening, expecting an overall increase in cloud
coverage.
Jet stream, South Central US through Northeast US, jet winds
increase through tonight.
For tonight a weak pressure gradient remains as high pressure axis
moves in and center of high pressure shifts south of the area. The
center of the high will be moving towards the Southeast US coast.
With mid level ridge axis moving east of the region, more trough
pattern takes shape. This will lead to decreasing subsidence. Mid
level low will be approaching from South Central Canada.
Would expect to have increasing and abundance of clouds coming
over the ridge. While surface light winds will promote more
radiational cooling, the extra cloud coverage will partially
mitigate this.
Have a blend of NBM and MOS consensus for the area low
temperatures tonight, ranging from lower 20s to lower 30s. This
will make for a less vast range of lows and keep temperatures
slightly warmer for rural and outlying locations. Dry conditions
expected to prevail.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Jet streak translates close to the region, staying just south of the
area Monday through Monday night.
Mid level zonal flow expected Monday through Monday night with the
mid level low moving from near northern Minnesota to the eastern
Great Lakes.
At the surface, low pressure travels eastward just north of the
Great Lakes. The low eventually gets to Southern Quebec to near
Maine by early Tuesday. An associated cold front moves across
the local area Monday night.
High pressure strengthens to the west of the low. The local
region will have a strengthening pressure gradient between the
low and high. A gusty WNW to NW flow develops as a result Monday
afternoon into Monday night.
Clouds will increase Monday into Monday night but decrease
later Monday night into Tuesday with surface high pressure
briefly building in. However, the center of the high pressure
stays well to the south and west of the region. Another cold
front then approaches, moving across late Tuesday. While not
much cloud increase is expected, this front will reinforce the
very cold airmass moving in with strong cold air advection.
Used a blend of MAV and MET MOS guidance and added an extra
degree for the high temperature forecast on Monday. Increasing
WSW flow Monday and higher vertical mixing should allow for a
relatively warmer day than the previous day. Forecast highs
range mainly in the low to mid 40s.
For lows Monday night, took a blend of NBM, consensus of raw
model data, as well as the MAV and MET MOS. While winds staying
up in the boundary layer and some extra clouds may be limiting
factors, there is still increasing cold air advection indicated
by the models. The net result are lows about the same as the
previous night but wind chills will be much more apparent here.
Tuesday, dry conditions, gusty westerly flow and much colder
than the previous day. Highs only getting to near freezing.
Tight pressure gradient between low pressure in the Canadian
Maritimes and high pressure west of the Great Lakes.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly dry conditions for the first part of the long term as high
pressure builds in at the surface from the Mid-west Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, a cutoff upper low and associated trough pushes east. A
surface trough moves through Wednesday. With weak lift, no
precipitation is expected, just a reinforcing shot of cold air.
Temperatures through Thursday will be below normal, ranging from the
upper 20s to just above freezing for high temperatures.
Additionally, as the surface low associated with the upper low
deepens offshore and the incoming high also strengthens, conditions
will be blustery, mainly for Wednesday. NW winds of 10 to around 15
mph are expected, with gusts 20-30 mph. Combined with the wind,
temperatures will feel like the teens and 20s during the day on
Wednesday, and it will feel slightly warmer for Thursday as the wind
diminish.
Deep layered riding aloft late Thursday night into Friday morning
out ahead of an approaching frontal system from central Canada. This
deep layered ridging aids in the dissipation of the frontal system
for Friday, with dry conditions continuing, but a SW flow Thursday
night into Friday morning will allow temperatures to warm to near
seasonable levels.
The next chance for widespread precipitation comes next weekend as
another more potent frontal system impacts the region. As is
typically the case, there are timing and placement issues with any
features, so stuck close to NBM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure over the area through tonight slides south and
east on Monday. A weak cold front passes through the region Monday
afternoon.
Winds W to NW back to more W this evening, remaining under 10kt.
of backing WNW-W and diminishing. Winds become SW late
tonight/toward Monday morning, and increase to around or just under
10 kt. With the passage of the cold front winds remain WNW and
increase with gusts up to 25kt likely. Timing of the cold frontal
passage is uncertain and may vary an hour or two from forecast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected. Cold front passage Monday afternoon may
vary an hour or two from forecast timing.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: VFR. W-NW winds G15-25kt.
Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 15G25kt.
Wednesday night: VFR. NW winds G20kt in the evening.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions continue with the weak pressure gradient across
the waters tonight into Monday morning. Then chances increase for
SCA conditions on the ocean Monday afternoon through Monday
night as pressure gradient tightens between low pressure
northwest of the region and high pressure southwest of the
region. Non-ocean waters could also get SCA level wind gusts
Monday night, but felt these may be more marginal and
occasional. Therefore, only have SCA for the ocean Monday
afternoon through Monday night at this time.
For Tuesday, SCA will likely be needed for this day with
widespread 25-30 kt gusts expected for all marine zones.
Widespread SCA wind gusts expected for all marine zones on
Tuesday.
Strong pressure gradient over the waters Tuesday night will likely
allow SCAs to continue over all waters through much of Wednesday.
Non-ocean waters may wind gusts fall below 25 kt by sunset Wednesday
night and ocean waters a few hours later.
Waves on the ocean waters peak Tuesday night at 4 to 7 ft and 4 to 5
ft over the central sound waters. Waves diminish Wednesday, falling
below 5 ft over all ocean waters by Wednesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions continue through Tuesday. No hydrologic problems
expected.
No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next
weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM/JP
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP