605
FXUS61 KOKX 130220
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
920 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will gradually weaken and shift more south of the
area overnight. A wave of low pressure approaches from SE
Canada Monday into Monday night. A cold front will pass across
the region late Monday into Monday night. Another cold front
moves across late Tuesday. High pressure builds in from the west
Tuesday night and remains in control through Wednesday night. A
frontal system approaches from the northwest Thursday and
dissipates over the region Friday. Another more potent frontal
system impacts the region next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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The forecast is generally on track. Temperatures and dew points
continue to be a bit cooler than forecast for eastern areas with
mostly clear skies. However, clouds moving in from the west
will overspread these areas, and temperatures should remain
steady or rise. Previous discussion follows.
Going into this evening, expecting an overall increase in cloud
coverage.
Jet stream, South Central US through Northeast US, jet winds
increase through tonight.
For tonight a weak pressure gradient remains as high pressure axis
moves in and center of high pressure shifts south of the area. The
center of the high will be moving towards the Southeast US coast.
With mid level ridge axis moving east of the region, more trough
pattern takes shape. This will lead to decreasing subsidence. Mid
level low will be approaching from South Central Canada.
Would expect to have increasing and abundance of clouds coming
over the ridge. While surface light winds will promote more
radiational cooling, the extra cloud coverage will partially
mitigate this.
Have a blend of NBM and MOS consensus for the area low
temperatures tonight, ranging from lower 20s to lower 30s. This
will make for a less vast range of lows and keep temperatures
slightly warmer for rural and outlying locations. Dry conditions
expected to prevail.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Jet streak translates close to the region, staying just south
of the area Monday through Monday night.
Mid level zonal flow expected Monday through Monday night with the
mid level low moving from near northern Minnesota to the eastern
Great Lakes.
At the surface, low pressure travels eastward just north of the
Great Lakes. The low eventually gets to Southern Quebec to near
Maine by early Tuesday. An associated cold front moves across
the local area Monday night.
High pressure strengthens to the west of the low. The local
region will have a strengthening pressure gradient between the
low and high. A gusty WNW to NW flow develops as a result Monday
afternoon into Monday night.
Clouds will increase Monday into Monday night but decrease
later Monday night into Tuesday with surface high pressure
briefly building in. However, the center of the high pressure
stays well to the south and west of the region. Another cold
front then approaches, moving across late Tuesday. While not
much cloud increase is expected, this front will reinforce the
very cold airmass moving in with strong cold air advection.
Used a blend of MAV and MET MOS guidance and added an extra
degree for the high temperature forecast on Monday. Increasing
WSW flow Monday and higher vertical mixing should allow for a
relatively warmer day than the previous day. Forecast highs
range mainly in the low to mid 40s.
For lows Monday night, took a blend of NBM, consensus of raw
model data, as well as the MAV and MET MOS. While winds staying
up in the boundary layer and some extra clouds may be limiting
factors, there is still increasing cold air advection indicated
by the models. The net result are lows about the same as the
previous night but wind chills will be much more apparent here.
Tuesday, dry conditions, gusty westerly flow and much colder
than the previous day. Highs only getting to near freezing.
Tight pressure gradient between low pressure in the Canadian
Maritimes and high pressure west of the Great Lakes.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mainly dry conditions for the first part of the long term as
high pressure builds in at the surface from the Mid-west Tuesday
night. Meanwhile, a cutoff upper low and associated trough
pushes east. A surface trough moves through Wednesday. With weak
lift, no precipitation is expected, just a reinforcing shot of
cold air. Temperatures through Thursday will be below normal,
ranging from the upper 20s to just above freezing for high
temperatures. Additionally, as the surface low associated with
the upper low deepens offshore and the incoming high also
strengthens, conditions will be blustery, mainly for Wednesday.
NW winds of 10 to around 15 mph are expected, with gusts 20-30
mph. Combined with the wind, temperatures will feel like the
teens and 20s during the day on Wednesday, and it will feel
slightly warmer for Thursday as the wind diminish.
Deep layered riding aloft late Thursday night into Friday
morning out ahead of an approaching frontal system from central
Canada. This deep layered ridging aids in the dissipation of the
frontal system for Friday, with dry conditions continuing, but
a SW flow Thursday night into Friday morning will allow
temperatures to warm to near seasonable levels.
The next chance for widespread precipitation comes next weekend
as another more potent frontal system impacts the region. As is
typically the case, there are timing and placement issues with
any features, so stuck close to NBM.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure remains through the overnight and slides
south and east on Monday. A weak cold front passes through the
region Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
Winds W to NW back to more W, remaining under 10kt. Winds
become SW late tonight/toward Monday morning, and increase to
around or just under 10 kt. With the passage of the cold front
winds remain WNW and increase with gusts up to 25kt likely.
Timing of the cold frontal passage is uncertain and may vary an
hour or two from forecast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected. Cold front passage Monday afternoon may
vary an hour or two from forecast timing.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: VFR. W-NW winds G15-25kt.
Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 15G25kt.
Wednesday night: VFR. NW winds G20kt in the evening.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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No changes to winds and seas at this time.
Sub-SCA conditions continue with the weak pressure gradient
across the waters tonight into Monday morning. Then chances
increase for SCA conditions on the ocean Monday afternoon
through Monday night as pressure gradient tightens between low
pressure northwest of the region and high pressure southwest of
the region. Non-ocean waters could also get SCA level wind gusts
Monday night, but felt these may be more marginal and
occasional. Therefore, only have SCA for the ocean Monday
afternoon through Monday night at this time.
For Tuesday, SCA will likely be needed for this day with
widespread 25-30 kt gusts expected for all marine zones.
Widespread SCA wind gusts expected for all marine zones on
Tuesday.
Strong pressure gradient over the waters Tuesday night will likely
allow SCAs to continue over all waters through much of Wednesday.
Non-ocean waters may wind gusts fall below 25 kt by sunset Wednesday
night and ocean waters a few hours later.
Waves on the ocean waters peak Tuesday night at 4 to 7 ft and 4 to 5
ft over the central sound waters. Waves diminish Wednesday, falling
below 5 ft over all ocean waters by Wednesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions continue through Tuesday. No hydrologic problems
expected.
No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next
weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM/JP/MET
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP