095
FXUS61 KOKX 131807
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
107 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian low pressure passes north today into tonight bringing
a cold front through late this afternoon into this evening. The
are will then remain in between low pressure to the east and
high pressure to the west Tuesday through Wednesday. High pressure
will largely be control for the end of the week with the exception
of a weakening frontal system moving across the area Thursday.
Another more potent frontal system impacts the region for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Adjustments were made to the cloud coverage to increase the
cloud coverage and to shift any slight chance POPs to later this
afternoon. This is reflected in the mesoscale model forecasts of
reflectivity across the region. Otherwise, the forecast is on
track with no changes made to today`s forecast high
temperatures.
A surface low moves from the western Great Lakes into southern
Quebec today into tonight. As it passes to our north, it brings a
cold front through the area late this afternoon/evening.
The cold front late today is primarily expect to be a dry one.
However, a few brief light showers or snow showers (depending on
the temperature at the time) could occur along the frontal
boundary for northern portions of the CWA. No accumulation is
expected.
SW winds today will lead to warming temperatures. Afternoon highs
will be in the mid-40s for coastal areas and in the low-40s for
northern interior areas.
Lows tonight will become quite chilly, dipping into the mid/low-20s
as a NW/W wind gains in speed through the night following the cold
front, advecting colder air into the area. Peak wind gusts could be
between 15-25 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure located to our SW slowly nudges into the area TUesday
through Wednesday. Simultaneously, low pressure that passed to our
north moves into the Canadian Maritimes and then offshore to our
east through this same period. We`ll remain sandwiched between the
two opposing pressure systems under a tight pressure gradient. This
means NW wind gusts 25-30 mph will remain persistent Tuesday through
Wednesday.
Cold air advection on Tuesday will be supported by strong NW flow and
a mid/upper-level trough that amplifies over the northeast on
Tuesday and remaining nearby offshore on Wednesday. Highs Tuesday
and Wednesday will remain near freezing (32F) to the mid-20s. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
Tuesday through Wednesday is expected to remain dry and mostly
sunny. However, a period of increased cloud cover is likely Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night with a passing surface trough.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The last in a series of shortwave troughs will drop across the
Northeast Thursday sending a dissipating frontal system across the
area with little more than some cloud cover and the last piece of
some cold air before a brief warmup ensues Friday into Saturday. The
mean longwave trough over the east lifts out at this time with Pac
Energy briefly breaking down the ridge across western Canada and the
PAC NW. The latter of which along with an amplifying northern branch
trough descending south from central Canada is expected to carve out
a longwave trough encompassing much of the Lower 48 by the close of
next weekend. Models do diverge somewhat with the timing of a
stronger frontal system along the eastern side of this trough that
will move off the eastern seaboard over the weekend. The question
resides is this a more progressive frontal system with the
possibility of some weak frontal waves, or does a stronger low pass
to the west of the area like the 00Z GFS shows next Sunday. However,
the 00Z GEFS shows no support for this deeper inland low and neither
do the EPS and GEPS. Thus, see no reason at this time to deviate
from the National Blend of Models (NBM), which supports a more
progressive cold front moving through the area Saturday into
Saturday night. Expect colder air to filter in for the second half
of the weekend which looks to be the leading edge of an arctic
airmass that drops south into the Central U.S. the following week.
Have also maintained chance PoPs for the weekend with mainly rain
for Saturday and possibly rain and/or snow Sunday with decreasing
chances.
Temperatures will warm to above normal levels heading into Saturday
before the aforementioned cold frontal passage brings in some cooler
air Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold frontal passage occurs late this afternoon into early
this evening.
VFR thru the TAF period.
Winds become W behind the front late this aftn, then all areas
around 290 true tngt and Tue. Speeds around 10kt ahead of the
front, then increasing winds into Tue with gusts to 30kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional WSW G15-20kt ahead of the cold front are possible
this afternoon.
Cold frontal passage this afternoon may vary an hour or two
from forecast timing (likely on the later side). Winds behind
the front may vary from 270-290 until late tngt.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Rest of Tuesday - Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 15G25kt.
Wednesday night: VFR. NW winds G20kt in the evening.
Thursday - Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions start on ocean waters this afternoon after 1pm
in response to a passing cold front increasing winds and seas.
The frequency of gusts near 25 to 30 kt will be higher across
the ocean compared to non-ocean waters for tonight. The non-
ocean waters could get to 25 kt gusts at times tonight but
forecast has gusts mostly just below 25 kt so no SCA in effect
non-ocean waters tonight. However, all non-ocean waters develop
frequent SCA conditions for winds starting midday Tuesday and
the SCA for non-ocean waters starts 10am Tuesday and goes
through the entire day.
SCA conditions are likely to continue Wednesday for all forecast
waters. Ocean seas during this time are forecast to be near 5
to 7 ft.
A ridge of high pressure is forecast to move across the waters
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with sub-SCA conditions.
However, a dissipating frontal system moving through the area later
in the day could produce a short period of marginal SCA conditions
on the ocean waters. High pressure is then expected to follow on
Friday with weakening winds and subsiding seas.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...