913
FXUS61 KOKX 131943
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
243 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian low pressure passes north today into tonight bringing
a cold front through late this afternoon into this evening. The
are will then remain in between low pressure to the east and
high pressure to the west Tuesday through Wednesday. High pressure
will largely be control for the end of the week with the exception
of a weakening frontal system moving across the area Thursday.
Another more potent frontal system impacts the region for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Clouds increased across the region, lowered temperatures
slightly.
Expecting the clouds to remain abundant with the cold front
passing through this evening.
Still remains a slight possibility of a quick very light rain
shower or snow shower late this afternoon into early this
evening. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to prevail.
Some mid level negative vorticity advection late this evening
into overnight, will allow for some decrease to clouds.
However, boundary layer remains mixed with cold air advection
steady through the night. Gusty winds will be occurring that
will mitigate radiational cooling.
Used NBM range of lows, from upper teens to mid 20s for much of
the region. NYC Metro expected to have lows more in the upper
20s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure located to our SW slowly nudges into the area TUesday
through Wednesday. Simultaneously, low pressure that passed to our
north moves into the Canadian Maritimes and then offshore to our
east through this same period. We`ll remain sandwiched between the
two opposing pressure systems under a tight pressure gradient. This
means NW wind gusts 25-30 mph will remain persistent Tuesday through
Wednesday.
Cold air advection on Tuesday will be supported by strong NW flow and
a mid/upper-level trough that amplifies over the northeast on
Tuesday and remaining nearby offshore on Wednesday. Highs Tuesday
and Wednesday will remain near freezing (32F) to the mid-20s. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
Tuesday through Wednesday is expected to remain dry and mostly
sunny. However, a period of increased cloud cover is likely Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night with a passing surface trough.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The last in a series of shortwave troughs will drop across the
Northeast Thursday sending a dissipating frontal system across the
area with little more than some cloud cover and the last piece of
some cold air before a brief warmup ensues Friday into Saturday. The
mean longwave trough over the east lifts out at this time with Pac
Energy briefly breaking down the ridge across western Canada and the
PAC NW. The latter of which along with an amplifying northern branch
trough descending south from central Canada is expected to carve out
a longwave trough encompassing much of the Lower 48 by the close of
next weekend. Models do diverge somewhat with the timing of a
stronger frontal system along the eastern side of this trough that
will move off the eastern seaboard over the weekend. The question
resides is this a more progressive frontal system with the
possibility of some weak frontal waves, or does a stronger low pass
to the west of the area like the 00Z GFS shows next Sunday. However,
the 00Z GEFS shows no support for this deeper inland low and neither
do the EPS and GEPS. Thus, see no reason at this time to deviate
from the National Blend of Models (NBM), which supports a more
progressive cold front moving through the area Saturday into
Saturday night. Expect colder air to filter in for the second half
of the weekend which looks to be the leading edge of an arctic
airmass that drops south into the Central U.S. the following week.
Have also maintained chance PoPs for the weekend with mainly rain
for Saturday and possibly rain and/or snow Sunday with decreasing
chances.
Temperatures will warm to above normal levels heading into Saturday
before the aforementioned cold frontal passage brings in some cooler
air Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold frontal passage occurs late this afternoon into early
this evening.
VFR thru the TAF period.
Winds become W behind the front late this aftn, then all areas
around 290 true tngt and Tue. Speeds around 10kt ahead of the
front, then increasing winds into Tue with gusts to 30kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional WSW G15-20kt ahead of the cold front are possible
this afternoon.
Cold frontal passage this afternoon may vary an hour or two
from forecast timing (likely on the later side). Winds behind
the front may vary from 270-290 until late tngt.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Rest of Tuesday - Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 15G25kt.
Wednesday night: VFR. NW winds G20kt in the evening.
Thursday - Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves across this evening. Cold air advection will
allow for frequent gusts tonight through Tuesday. Pressure
gradient tightens between low pressure well north of the waters
and high pressure well southwest of the waters.
SCA already in effect across the ocean and is in effect through
the day Tuesday. Non-ocean zones have SCA go into effect
starting 6pm this evening and those continue through the day
Tuesday.
SCA conditions are likely to continue Tuesday night through
Wednesday for all forecast waters. Ocean seas during this time
are forecast to be near 5 to 7 ft. Gales will even be possible
for some time on the ocean Tuesday night.
A ridge of high pressure is forecast to move across the waters
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with sub-SCA conditions.
However, a dissipating frontal system moving through the area later
in the day could produce a short period of marginal SCA conditions
on the ocean waters. High pressure is then expected to follow on
Friday with weakening winds and subsiding seas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM/BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW