985
FXUS61 KOKX 132110 CCA
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
410 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts move across going into the middle of
this week. High pressure remains in control through Wednesday
night. A frontal system approaches from the northwest Thursday
and dissipates over the region Friday. Another more potent
frontal system impacts the region over the weekend with the
potential for an area of low pressure to impact the region late
in the weekend into the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Expecting the clouds to remain abundant with the cold front
passing through this evening.
Still remains a slight possibility of a quick very light rain
shower or snow shower late this afternoon into early this
evening. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected to
prevail.
Some mid level negative vorticity advection late this evening
into overnight, will allow for some decrease to clouds.
However, boundary layer remains mixed with cold air advection
steady through the night. Gusty winds will be occurring that
will mitigate radiational cooling.
Used NBM range of lows, from upper teens to mid 20s for much of
the region. NYC Metro expected to have lows more in the upper
20s. Wind chill minima in the single digits to lower teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tuesday will have gusty westerly flow and much colder. Highs
struggle to reach freezing. Gusts near 30 mph for most locations.
Wind chill maxima upper teens to lower 20s. Tight pressure
gradient between low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes and high
pressure west of the Great Lakes. Another cold front will be
approaching from the west. This front will move across late in the
day. There will be an increase in clouds and a slight chance of
snow showers. This is shown by various mesoscale models with their
reflectivity fields but at rather low magnitudes. Still expecting
overall mainly dry conditions however.
For Tuesday night, behind the cold front, strong high pressure
will gradually build in from the west. Clouds decrease but a tight
pressure gradient remains between low pressure in vicinity of
Canadian Maritimes and high pressure in the Central US, driving
a continued gusty northwest flow, gusts up to 30 to 35 mph. Dry
and very cold conditions expected. Lows forecast from NBM in
upper teens to lower 20s for most locations with corresponding
wind chill minima in the single digits for most locations. NYC
Metro has lows more in the low to mid 20s with wind chill minima
around 10.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly dry with high pressure building in Wednesday as a surface
trough moves through. Meanwhile, a cutoff upper low and associated
trough pushes east. No precipitation is expected with the surface
trough, just a reinforcing shot of cold air. Temperatures through
Thursday will be below normal, ranging from the upper 20s to just
above freezing for high temperatures. Additionally, as the surface
low associated with the upper low deepens offshore and the incoming
high also strengthens, conditions will be blustery, mainly for
Wednesday. NW winds of 10 to around 15 mph are expected, with gusts
20-30 mph. Combined with the wind, temperatures will feel like the
teens and 20s during the day on Wednesday, and it will feel slightly
warmer for Thursday as the wind diminish.
Deep layered riding aloft late Thursday night into Friday morning
out ahead of an approaching frontal system from central Canada. This
deep layered ridging aids in the dissipation of the frontal system
for Friday, with dry conditions continuing. A SW flow Thursday night
into Friday morning will allow temperatures to warm to near
seasonable levels.
The next chance for widespread precipitation comes next weekend as
another more cold front impacts the region and moves through
Saturday night. A weak area of low pressure may form along the
frontal boundary to the south of the region on Sunday night and
track northeast, passing south and east of Long Island late Sunday
night into Monday. As is typically the case, there are timing and
placement issues with any features, so stuck close to NBM.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front passes offshore this eve.
VFR thru the TAF period. A few sprinkles are possible, primarily N
of the NYC arpts, thru about 00Z.
SW winds becoming W thru 00Z, then NW thereafter with directions
around 290 true. Speeds will increase thru the eve, especially aft
becoming NW. Gusts around 30kt likely on Tue.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds may vary from 250-280 true thru 00Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Rest of Tuesday - Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 15G25kt.
Wednesday night: VFR. NW winds G20kt in the evening.
Thursday - Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front moves across this evening. Cold air advection will
allow for frequent gusts tonight through Tuesday. Pressure
gradient tightens between low pressure well north of the waters
and high pressure well southwest of the waters. BUFKIT shows
well mixed boundary layer on all the waters.
SCA already in effect across the ocean and is in effect through
the day Tuesday. Non-ocean zones have SCA go into effect
starting 6pm this evening and those continue through the day
Tuesday.
SCA conditions are likely to continue Tuesday night through
Wednesday for all forecast waters. Ocean seas during this time
are forecast to be near 5 to 7 ft. Gales will even be possible
for some time on the ocean Tuesday night. With some upper mixed
layer gusts possible to near 40 kt, did hoist a gale watch for
the ocean waters Tuesday night. Feel more confident about 35 kt
gusts on the ocean Tuesday night. SCA continues for the non-
ocean waters Tuesday night.
Strong pressure gradient over the waters will likely allow SCAs to
continue over all waters through much of Wednesday. Non-ocean waters
may wind gusts fall below 25 kt by sunset Wednesday night and ocean
waters a few hours later. Marginal wind gusts are possible Thursday
afternoon on the ocean waters.
Waves of 4 to 7 ft on the ocean and 3 to 5 ft on the sound diminish
Wednesday, falling below 5 ft over all ocean waters by Wednesday
night.
Waves build once again the ocean to above 5 ft Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night and diminish to below SCA levels on Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Mainly dry conditions, precipitation under a tenth of an inch,
through Tuesday night.
No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next
weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP