465
FXUS61 KOKX 141811
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
111 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of surface troughs pass today into tomorrow morning
before high pressure takes over late tomorrow into tomorrow night.
An approaching frontal system dissipates to the west of the area
Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure will then briefly
build into the area on Friday ahead of another frontal system that
passes through the area on Saturday. A series of frontal waves
will then pass near or south and east of the area late Sunday into
Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A low pressure system in southern Quebec moves east into the
Canadian Maritimes today, as high pressure noses in from the
southwest. As the low moves further into the Canadian Maritimes,
the pressure gradient over our area will increase, leading to
increasing breezy NW flow with wind gusts tonight maxing out
around 25-30 mph.
Cold air advection will also aid in gusty NW flow, but also lead to
colder temperatures. Highs today will be in the low-30s (south and
east) and in the upper-20s for northwestern interior locations. Lows
tonight will drop into the mid-20s to upper-teens.
An midlevel trough over Michigan today will dig into the northeast
this evening into tonight, aiding in strong winds and cold air
advection. The midlevel trough will also bring some positive
vorticity advection. At the same time, this evening into tonight a
surface trough will also pass over the area. Both of these will act
to increase cloud cover this evening into early tonight. Dry air
looks to be very strong, keeping precipitation chances down. Its
very likely we stay dry. However, trough may allow from so lake-
effect streamers to make it just far enough to impact the area. The
chances of this look low, so have kept only slim chances for
isolated flurries in the forecast this evening into early tonight.
No accumulation is expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An increased pressure gradient remains over the area tomorrow
morning as surface low pressure moves east of the Canadian Maritimes
and high pressure noses more into the area from the southwest.
Another surface trough is also expected to pass in the morning, but
expecting to stay dry. Breezy NW flow will continue in the morning
with gusts again peaking 25-30 mph.
As the mid-level trough moves east of the area offshore later in the
day, surface high pressure is then able to center itself more over
the region, leading to a decreased pressure gradient and weakening
winds. Mainly sunny skies are also expected as a result. Highs
tomorrow remain on the cold side of things in the low-30s to upper-
20s.
A modest mid-level ridge centers itself over the northeast tomorrow
night in response to a larger upper-level trough digging into the
Great Lakes region. Lows, again, return to the low-20s to upper-
teens tomorrow night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The last in a series of shortwave troughs will drop across the
Northeast Thursday with the associated frontal system dissipating to
the west of the forecast area. Expect an increase in cloud cover
during the afternoon and evening hours with perhaps a chance of
flurries or a brief snow shower. However, have kept the forecast dry
at this time. The upper trough will then lift out late Thursday
night into Friday morning with brief upper ridging and surface high
pressure building across the area. This will also mark the start of
a short warmup with temperatures by Saturday 5 to 8 degrees above
normal.
At the same time, Pac energy that briefly breaks down the ridge
across western Canada and the PAC NW along with northern branch
energy descending south across central Canada will carve out a
longwave trough encompassing much of the Lower 48 over the weekend.
Guidance has come into better agreement with a more progressive cold
front at the leading edge of the trough that tracks across the area
Saturday afternoon/night. Expect mainly rain showers in a
strengthening deep-layered southerly flow.
Differences then arise with the orientation on what will be a
positively tilted upper trough covering most of the country. The 00Z
Canadian continues to dig jet energy along the backside of the upper
trough much farther west as compared to the ECMWF and GFS, taking
the energy across the intermountain west Saturday into Sunday and
then out into the Central Rockies by early next week. This results
in a strongly-tilted positive upper trough that sends waves of low
pressure along an arctic front toward the area early next week.
However, the GFS and ECMWF allow the arctic air to spread out to the
south and east quicker with the frontal boundary much farther south
and arctic high pressure encompassing much of the country east of
the Rockies by early next week. This scenario would keep the storm
track displaced well south and east. For the time, like the NBM have
maintained low chances for snow Sunday night into Monday.
Arctic air spills into the area Sunday night into Monday with highs
likely not getting above freezing on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Persistent pattern remains with low pressure to the north and east
and high pressure to the south and west through the TAF period. This
tight pressure gradient will keep gusty WNW-NW winds through the TAF
period.
Outside of some possible snow flurries late this afternoon into this
evening, dry conditions are expected through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as well.
Winds will be generally direction 290-310 through the TAF period
with sustained wind speeds of near 15-20 kt and gusts near 25-30 kt.
Highest of winds expected this afternoon into early evening and
again late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon with more
of a lull in the winds for mid evening into overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction could fluctuate between 300 and 320 degrees magnetic
through this afternoon.
Peak gusts 3-5 kts higher than gusts in TAF are possible during
the TAF period.
Timing of gusts closer to 30 kt and gusts closer to 25 kt could be a
few hours off from TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday afternoon-Wednesday night: VFR. NW wind gusts
initially near 25 kt eventually lower closer to 20 kt Wednesday
night and then eventually diminish.
Thursday-Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Chance for MVFR or lower at times. Chances for mainly rain
showers along the coast, likely rain showers all terminals in the
afternoon to early evening, chances for wintry mix north and west of
NYC terminals. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.
Sunday: Chance for MVFR or lower at times with chance of snow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions remain on all waters through today, tonight and into
the day tomorrow. Early tonight, peak wind gusts may reach 34 kts on
ocean waters. There is still some uncertainty if we`ll achieve gale-
force wind gusts on ocean waters tonight into early tomorrow.
Therefore, the Gale Watch has been maintained due to confidence
being too low to upgrade to a Gale Warning. Early tomorrow night
winds may drop below 25 kts on non-ocean waters followed by ocean
waters later in the night tomorrow.
Light freezing spray is possible in most of the Long Island Sound
and part of the ocean starting today and remains possible until
tomorrow night. Thereafter, winds will weaken, reducing chances for
freezing spray.
Expect sub-SCA conditions as a frontal system dissipates to the west
on Thursday and high pressure builds over the area on Friday. A
strong frontal system moving into the area Saturday will be preceded
by a strengthening S/SW flow, which could produce SCA conditions
Saturday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts expected into early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
Gale Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Wednesday
morning for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW