224
FXUS61 KOKX 211753
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1253 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build in from the west through
midweek. The high will move over the local region Wednesday
night and then offshore on Thursday. A low pressure system then
travels offshore Thursday night into early Friday. High pressure
returns thereafter into Saturday and then moves offshore
Saturday night into Sunday. Low pressure approaches Sunday night
into next Monday with an accompanying cold front moving across.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast remains generally on track this morning with just
some minor adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints over the
next few hours. Otherwise, high pressure over the region will
keep conditions mostly dry through the near term period. An
upper level shortwave will pivot across the region late Tuesday
into Tuesday night. This will bring some cloud cover to the
region. Expect a mostly cloudy afternoon/evening. As the
shortwave exits the region, a few light snow showers or flurries
may be possible across far eastern portion of the CWA. POPs
will be limited to 20 percent. Sky conditions will gradually
clear from west to east, especially towards midnight. This
should set up another night of decent radiational cooling. Winds
will remain rather light, especially north and west of NYC,
where the coldest temperatures of the night are expected. With
respect to temperatures, expect highs today to climb into the
teens and lower 20s. Tonight lows will fall into the single
digits and teens. A few of the normally colder spots may see
temperatures fall below 0.
Just like Monday night, In terms of zone averages, wind chill values
are expected to remain short of cold weather advisory criteria,
which is -10 degrees F or lower for all but LI and the metro NYC,
where it is -5 degrees F or lower. Would not be surprised if one or
two isolated locations reach criteria, but at this time, we are not
expecting these conditions to warrant any headlines.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will primarily dominate through the short term with
mostly dry and cold conditions. The arctic airmass will remain over
the region Wednesday highs only in the teens and lower 20s. However,
temperatures will start to moderate a bit on Thursday, as a more W-
SW flow develops. Highs on Thursday will be range from the middle
20s to lower 30s, with a few locations across Long Island possibly
getting back above freezing. Overnight lows both nights fall into
the single digits and teens, except NYC may see lows in the lower
20s Thursday night.
An area of low pressure passes offshore Thursday night. This is
expected to remain far enough offshore but some forecast models show
a closer approach, bringing a slight chance of snow along the
southeast coastal sections of the local region Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. Once again, will limit POPs to slight chance to
account for this.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main jet stream will remain south of the region and mid level
trough will remain over the Northeast Friday into Friday night.
The pattern shifts thereafter to more zonal aloft going into the
weekend. An upper level shortwave trough approaches next
Monday.
At the surface, low pressure approaches from the west next Monday
along with an accompanying cold front. There are differences between
forecast models in regards to timing and placement of the low
pressure and front. This will allow for a another slight chance of
snow as wet bulb cooling and thicknesses show more in the way of
snow. However, forecast models do not have much moisture associated
with the front, with some models keeping the area dry.
Moderating temperatures for Friday into the weekend, though they
will still be well below normal through the first half of the
weekend. Temperatures climb above freezing by Sunday for much, if
not all of the forecast area. Temperatures slowly cool for the
beginning of next week, but only to slightly below normal
levels.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure builds from the west.
A W or WNW flow through remainder of today, veering NW this
evening and overnight. A NW/NNW flow persists much of Wednesday,
becoming light and variable late day as high pressure builds
overhead. Speeds largely remain at or under 10 kt thru the TAF
period.
Some high and mid level clouds toward 5 kft develop this
afternoon and early evening, before clearing overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected. Isolated gusts 15 to 20 kt
possible today.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt NYC metro/coastal terminals.
Sunday: VFR. W gusts 20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With high pressure building into the region, expected sub-SCA
conditions for much of the week. SCA conditions may return this
weekend, generally from late Saturday night into Sunday and
mainly for the ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues anticipated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...BC/JC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP