378
FXUS61 KOKX 221132
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
632 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be moving directly over the local region
tonight and then offshore on Thursday. A low pressure system
then travels offshore Thursday into Thursday night. High
pressure returns thereafter. A weak cold front is expected to
move across the region late in the weekend as another low
develops offshore and tracks well east of the region early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast mainly on track this morning. Some increase in clouds
and slight adjustments to temperatures as well as dewpoints to
better match with observed trends.
The core of this arctic airmass is across the region and lingers
into today. The 850mb temperatures consensus from forecast models
rise to greater than -20 degrees C, more near -17 to -15 degrees
C late this afternoon into early this evening. Forecast highs
are similar to yesterday but did not the MAV MOS captured
temperatures better than the MET MOS, which exhibited a
significant warm bias. Highs are in the upper to lower 20s for
most locations.
One more very cold night is expected tonight but with ridging
aloft, winds are going to be very light and calm in quite a few
locations. Some increase in clouds is expected with a shortwave
passing aloft. Used a MAV/MET/NBM blend with lows in the single
digits to upper teens. Wind chills will not be too much colder
than actual temperatures.
Weather stays dry and very cold.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Main jet stream south of the region and mid level trough in the
Northeast will remain in the regional weather pattern through
Friday night. 850mb temperatures staying near -10 to -15
degrees C from forecast model consensus. Mainly dry and
slightly higher temperatures expected, but still staying very
cold. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal.
At the surface, the arctic cold airmass across the region midweek
will begin to moderate towards the end of this week. One high
pressure area weakens and moves offshore, only to eventually be
replaced by another strong high building in from the west.
Temperatures at the surface first get to near to above freezing
for some eastern parts of the region Thursday with a slight
decline for Friday.
An area of low pressure passes offshore Thursday into Thursday
night. This is expected to remain far enough offshore but some
forecast models show a closer approach, bringing a slight chance
of snow along the southeast coastal sections of the local
region Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Mainly dry
conditions are expected however.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region this weekend. Temperatures
will remain below or right around the freezing mark on Saturday.
Temperatures do warm a bit for Sunday with temperatures in the
middle and upper 30s, to near 40 along the coast.
A series of upper level troughs and associated surface cold fronts
push across the region late Sunday through the middle of next week.
Each of these systems should bring some cloud cover to the area,
however there is not much moisture to work with, so many of these
fronts will push across the area dry. A low pressure system will
pass south of the area on Monday. The northern edge of the
precipitation shield may clip parts of the area during this period.
Will carry just some slight chance POPs for Monday afternoon to
account for this. Otherwise, a mostly dry long term can be expected.
High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 30s, with upper
30s and lower 40s on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will continue to build into the region through the TAF
period.
VFR. NW flow will persist today. Winds speeds will be around 10
kt or less through 23z or so, then become light and variable.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt NYC metro/coastal terminals.
Sunday: VFR. W gusts 20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Short fused SCA remains for the ocean zones until 12PM
today. Otherwise, below SCA wind gusts are expected for the
non- ocean zones through this morning.
Also, some moderate freezing spray has been reported by some
buoys. This is in combination of higher seas, lower SSTs in the
low to mid 30s, low air temperatures near 20 degrees F and winds
near 10-20 kt. Expecting this to continue into this morning
across the ocean zones west of Moriches Inlet and the Long
Island Sound west of Orient Point. Other water areas are not
expected to get much if any freezing spray and certainly not
moderate freezing spray as seas are lower and SSTs are
relatively warmer in some cases.
Below SCA conditions are expected this afternoon through
Thursday. Possible SCA conditions for parts of the ocean
Thursday night with otherwise sub-SCA conditions continuing
through Friday night.
Conditions remain below small craft criteria for the first half of
the weekend. Small craft conditions are expected to return for
Sunday and continue into the first half of next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Mainly dry conditions through forecast period. No hydrologic
issues are anticipated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ331-335-
353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM