268
FXUS61 KOKX 221436
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
936 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure moves over the local region into tonight, then
offshore on Thursday. A weak low pressure system passes nearby
and offshore Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure
returns thereafter. A weak cold front is expected to move across
the region late in the weekend as another low develops offshore
and tracks well east of the region early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The core of this arctic airmass remains in place locally today.
The 850mb temperature consensus from forecast models rise to
greater than -20C, more near -17 to -15C late this afternoon
into early this evening. Forecast highs are similar to
yesterday, generally topping out in the teens to lower 20s, with
highest values along the coast. With the center of the high
building overhead though, winds will be near calm, which should
keep wind chills close to the actual air temp. Some high clouds
develop this evening with a weak disturbance passing north, but
conditions remain dry.
One more very cold night is expected tonight but with ridging
aloft, winds are going to be very light and calm in quite a few
locations. Some increase in clouds is expected with a shortwave
passing aloft. Used a MAV/MET/NBM blend with lows in the single
digits to upper teens. Wind chills will not be too much colder
than actual temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main jet stream south of the region and mid level trough in the
Northeast will remain in the regional weather pattern through
Friday night. 850mb temperatures staying near -10 to -15
degrees C from forecast model consensus. Mainly dry and
slightly higher temperatures expected, but still staying very
cold. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal.
At the surface, the arctic cold airmass across the region midweek
will begin to moderate towards the end of this week. One high
pressure area weakens and moves offshore, only to eventually be
replaced by another strong high building in from the west.
Temperatures at the surface first get to near to above freezing
for some eastern parts of the region Thursday with a slight
decline for Friday.
An area of low pressure passes offshore Thursday into Thursday
night. This is expected to remain far enough offshore but some
forecast models show a closer approach, bringing a slight chance
of snow along the southeast coastal sections of the local
region Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Mainly dry
conditions are expected however.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region this weekend. Temperatures
will remain below or right around the freezing mark on Saturday.
Temperatures do warm a bit for Sunday with temperatures in the
middle and upper 30s, to near 40 along the coast.
A series of upper level troughs and associated surface cold fronts
push across the region late Sunday through the middle of next week.
Each of these systems should bring some cloud cover to the area,
however there is not much moisture to work with, so many of these
fronts will push across the area dry. A low pressure system will
pass south of the area on Monday. The northern edge of the
precipitation shield may clip parts of the area during this period.
Will carry just some slight chance POPs for Monday afternoon to
account for this. Otherwise, a mostly dry long term can be expected.
High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 30s, with upper
30s and lower 40s on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR with high pressure continuing to build into the region
through the TAF period.
NW flow will persist today around 10 kt or less into the
afternoon. Winds speeds will begin to weaken after 19-21z and
become light and variable tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction may vary about 20 degrees of forecast late this
afternoon and early evening as wind speeds decrease.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday-Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt NYC metro/coastal terminals.
Sunday: VFR. W gusts 20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Short fused SCA remains for the ocean zones until 12PM
today. Otherwise, below SCA wind gusts are expected for the
non ocean zones through this morning.
Also, some moderate freezing spray has been reported by some
buoys. This is in combination of higher seas, lower SSTs in the
low to mid 30s, low air temperatures near 20 degrees F and winds
near 10-20 kt. Expecting this to continue into this morning
across the ocean zones west of Moriches Inlet and the Long
Island Sound west of Orient Point. Other water areas are not
expected to get much if any freezing spray and certainly not
moderate freezing spray as seas are lower and SSTs are
relatively warmer in some cases.
Below SCA conditions are expected this afternoon through
Thursday. Possible SCA conditions for parts of the ocean
Thursday night with otherwise sub-SCA conditions continuing
through Friday night.
Conditions remain below small craft criteria for the first half of
the weekend. Small craft conditions are expected to return for
Sunday and continue into the first half of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Mainly dry conditions through forecast period. No hydrologic
issues are anticipated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ331-335-
353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM/DR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/DS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM