167
FXUS61 KOKX 221720
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1220 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves over the local region into tonight, then
offshore on Thursday. A weak low pressure system passes nearby
and offshore Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure
returns thereafter. A weak cold front is expected to move across
the region late in the weekend as another low develops offshore
and tracks well east of the region early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The core of this arctic airmass remains in place locally today.
Forecast highs are similar to yesterday, generally topping out
in the teens to lower 20s, with highest values along the coast.
With the center of the high building overhead though, winds
lighten, which should keep wind chills close to the actual air
temp. Some high clouds develop this evening with a weak
disturbance passing north, but conditions remain dry.
One more very cold night is expected tonight but with ridging
aloft, winds are going to be very light and calm in quite a few
locations. Some increase in clouds is expected with a shortwave
passing aloft. Used a MAV/MET/NBM blend with lows in the single
digits to upper teens. Wind chills will not be too much colder
than actual temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main jet stream south of the region and mid level trough in the
Northeast will remain in the regional weather pattern through
Friday night. 850mb temperatures staying near -10 to -15
degrees C from forecast model consensus. Mainly dry and
slightly higher temperatures expected, but still staying very
cold. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal.
At the surface, the arctic cold airmass across the region midweek
will begin to moderate towards the end of this week. One high
pressure area weakens and moves offshore, only to eventually be
replaced by another strong high building in from the west.
Temperatures at the surface first get to near to above freezing
for some eastern parts of the region Thursday with a slight
decline for Friday.
An area of low pressure passes offshore Thursday into Thursday
night. This is expected to remain far enough offshore but some
forecast models show a closer approach, bringing a slight chance
of snow along the southeast coastal sections of the local
region Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Mainly dry
conditions are expected however.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region this weekend. Temperatures
will remain below or right around the freezing mark on Saturday.
Temperatures do warm a bit for Sunday with temperatures in the
middle and upper 30s, to near 40 along the coast.
A series of upper level troughs and associated surface cold fronts
push across the region late Sunday through the middle of next week.
Each of these systems should bring some cloud cover to the area,
however there is not much moisture to work with, so many of these
fronts will push across the area dry. A low pressure system will
pass south of the area on Monday. The northern edge of the
precipitation shield may clip parts of the area during this period.
Will carry just some slight chance POPs for Monday afternoon to
account for this. Otherwise, a mostly dry long term can be expected.
High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 30s, with upper
30s and lower 40s on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR with high pressure continuing to build into the region
through tonight then to the south of the terminals on Thursday.
N-NW flow under 10 kt to start will become W-WNW by late
afternoon. Winds speeds will continue to diminish through this
evening and become light and variable tonight. SW winds under 10
kt develop Thursday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
The wind may vary more to the N or NE of forecast early this
afternoon, but wind speeds continue to diminish.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Afternoon-Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. W gusts 15-20 kt NYC metro/coastal terminals.
Sunday: VFR. W gusts 15-20 kt.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of snow or rain/snow mix.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions on all waters through
Thursday. Increasing NW flow may allow 25 kt gusts to develop on
the ocean Thursday night, otherwise remaining sub SCA through
the first half of the weekend.
Small craft conditions are expected to return Sunday and
continue into the first half of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Mainly dry conditions through forecast period. No hydrologic
issues are anticipated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM/DR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM