717
FXUS61 KOKX 231150
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
650 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure remains over the region today as low
pressure passes offshore late in the day and tonight. Another
high builds into the region Friday, and remains Saturday,
shifting south Saturday night. A cold front is expected to move
across the region late in the weekend, followed by another cold
front Tuesday into Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Temperatures have been rising quicker than forecast, and
updated for trends. Otherwise the forecast is unchanged.
The core of the cold airmass was moving offshore this morning
with high pressure moving east. The high pressure shifts off the
northeast coast today allowing for a southern stream low to
pass well offshore of the region late in the day and into
tonight. This low is now expected to track a little farther east
as an upper level trough will be more progressive and moving
toward the eastern seaboard during today and into tonight. A
light return flow will allow for highs to reach the mid and
upper 20s inland and around 32 along the coast. The
deterministic NBM and MOS guidance were used for temperatures
today and tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper ridging moves into the region during Friday and remains
Saturday, while surface high pressure builds into the region.
With another upper trough moving into the northeast Saturday
night the surface high gets suppressed southward. However, dry
conditions will remain with temperatures remaining below normal
levels. Once again a blend of the deterministic and MOS guidance
was used.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region this Saturday night and
Sunday. Temperatures do warm a bit for Sunday with highs in the
middle and upper 30s, to near 40 along the coast.
The high slides offshore allowing a series of upper level
troughs and associated surface cold fronts to push across the
region. The first will be Sunday night into Monday, followed by
another Tuesday night into Wednesday. Each of these systems
should bring some cloud cover to the area, however there is not
much moisture to work with, so many of these fronts will push
across the area dry.
High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 30s. A cold
front will bring a re-enforcing shot of cold air for Wednesday
and Thursday with highs remaining in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure over the region will gradually weaken today as it
shifts to the south.
Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Winds will start off light and variable, becoming SW. Winds
should remain below 10kt this morning, then become closer to 10
this afternoon. This evening into tonight, winds become a bit
more westerly around 5-10kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday and Saturday: VFR.
Sunday-Monday: VFR. W-WSW gusts 20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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No changes to winds and seas at this time.
With high pressure over the forecast waters winds and seas
remain below advisory levels through Saturday night. Small
craft conditions are expected to return for Sunday and continue
for a large portion of next week as a series of cold fronts move
across the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues anticipated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET