245
FXUS61 KOKX 231438
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
938 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to weaken into tonight as low pressure
passes offshore late in the day and tonight. Another high builds
into the region Friday, and remains Saturday, shifting south
Saturday night. A cold front is expected to move across the
region late in the weekend, followed by another cold front
Tuesday into Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast remains on track into the afternoon.
The high pressure that has been providing the coldest air of
winter so far will continue to weak today. Some weak warm
advection will lead to a light return flow into the afternoon
which will help raise temperatures into the upper 20s inland and
low 30s at the coast. Most spots will stay below freezing, but a
few locations on eastern Long Island may touch or briefly exceed
freezing for the first time since Sunday night.
A southern stream low pressure will pass well offshore tonight.
Any moisture with this system looks to stay well to our east
with mostly clear skies overhead. Lows will range from around 10
degrees inland to the middle and upper teens elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper ridging moves into the region during Friday and remains
Saturday, while surface high pressure builds into the region.
With another upper trough moving into the northeast Saturday
night the surface high gets suppressed southward. However, dry
conditions will remain with temperatures remaining below normal
levels. Once again a blend of the deterministic and MOS guidance
was used.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region this Saturday night and
Sunday. Temperatures do warm a bit for Sunday with highs in the
middle and upper 30s, to near 40 along the coast.
The high slides offshore allowing a series of upper level
troughs and associated surface cold fronts to push across the
region. The first will be Sunday night into Monday, followed by
another Tuesday night into Wednesday. Each of these systems
should bring some cloud cover to the area, however there is not
much moisture to work with, so many of these fronts will push
across the area dry.
High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 30s. A cold
front will bring a re-enforcing shot of cold air for Wednesday
and Thursday with highs remaining in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure over the region will gradually weaken today as it
shifts to the south.
Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period.
SW-WSW Winds should remain below 10kt this morning, then become
closer to 10 kt this afternoon. For this evening into tonight,
winds become a bit more westerly around 5-10kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday and Saturday: VFR.
Sunday-Monday: VFR. W-WSW gusts 20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A weak pressure gradient will lead to winds and seas below SCA
levels through Saturday night. Small craft conditions are
expected to return for Sunday and continue for a large portion
of next week as a series of cold fronts move across the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic issues expected through the middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/JC
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET