629
FXUS61 KOKX 231739
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1239 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to weaken into tonight as low pressure
passes offshore late in the day and tonight. Another high builds
into the region Friday, and remains Saturday, shifting south
Saturday night. A cold front is expected to move across the
region late in the weekend, followed by another cold front
Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Warm advection continues this afternoon allowing temperatures to
moderate from the last few days. There has even been some
flurries reported across eastern Long Island and southeastern
CT. Have added in isolated flurries for the next few hours. No
accumulation expected given the flurries are coming from a
shallow cloud layer and there is limited snow growth based on
very light reflectivity.
Otherwise, high pressure continues to weaken this afternoon.
Highs will reach the middle and upper 20s for most with low 30s
closer to the CT and LI coasts. Most spots will stay below
freezing, but a few locations on eastern Long Island may touch
or briefly exceed freezing for the first time since Sunday
night.
A southern stream low pressure will pass well offshore tonight.
Any moisture with this system looks to stay well to our east
with mostly clear skies overhead. Lows will range from around 10
degrees inland to the middle and upper teens elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper ridging moves into the region during Friday and remains
Saturday, while surface high pressure builds into the region.
With another upper trough moving into the northeast Saturday
night the surface high gets suppressed southward. However, dry
conditions will remain with temperatures remaining below normal
levels. Once again a blend of the deterministic and MOS guidance
was used.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region this Saturday night and
Sunday. Temperatures do warm a bit for Sunday with highs in the
middle and upper 30s, to near 40 along the coast.
The high slides offshore allowing a series of upper level
troughs and associated surface cold fronts to push across the
region. The first will be Sunday night into Monday, followed by
another Tuesday night into Wednesday. Each of these systems
should bring some cloud cover to the area, however there is not
much moisture to work with, so many of these fronts will push
across the area dry.
High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 30s. A cold
front will bring a re-enforcing shot of cold air for Wednesday
and Thursday with highs remaining in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over the region into Friday.
VFR.
SW-WSW Winds near 10kt this afternoon. Winds become west
tonight 5-10kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday PM and Saturday: VFR.
Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. W-WSW gusts 20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will lead to winds and seas below SCA
levels through Saturday night. Small craft conditions are
expected to return for Sunday and continue for a large portion
of next week as a series of cold fronts move across the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through the middle of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET